Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

We have a tidy seven-game slate for this evening in the NBA. These mid-size slates always end up being my favorite. On short slate NBA nights, it so often seems as though everyone is on the same players, so trying to be contrarian usually ends up working well or working horribly. I have been burned many times by subbing in one value play for another, only to be the one guy who missed out on chalk that hit. Larger 10- or 11-game slates often remind me of Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz. The sheer number of possible lineup permutations and potential strong plays makes lineup construction complex and paralyzing. Our potential options for strong plays grow as the number of games increase, but analyzing which of the STRONG plays should become the BEST plays can damage our preparation and roster construction.

So, in honor of October 31, here are some strong Pace plays for Wednesday, inspired by quotes from John Carpenter’s original 1978 Halloween:

(Pace stats will be for last season until four weeks of data are accumulated)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors

Doctor Loomis: “You’ve got to believe me Officer; he is coming to Haddonfield. Because I know him, I’m his doctor! You must be ready for him. If you don’t, it’s your funeral!”

O/U – 235.5
’17-’18 Pace:
New Orleans – 1^st
Golden State – 5^th

Klay Thompson ($6,600) – You better be ready for the Warriors when you play them – it will be your funeral if you are not at the top of your game. You are likely to get 150 points dropped on you like the Bulls did the other night. We of course don’t expect another 14 three pointers and 50 points from Thompson like we saw then (although New Orleans allows opponents to make 35.5% from three), but this is still a player who is averaging 32 minutes a game and just under a point per minute for the season despite two or three abysmal games to start the year. Thompson’s matchup tonight against the Pels is ranked only 28^th in defensive real plus-minus for his position, giving him ample opportunity to shine again. You almost need Anthony Davis to play in this game, making it competitive enough for Klay and the starters to get fourth-quarter minutes.

Julius Randle ($6,600) – Here is a situation where the benefit could come from Davis NOT playing tonight. Randle’s usage with Davis out goes up to well over 30%. This added bonus would be on top of a player who is averaging 23 minutes and 33.5 fantasy points per game on the year. In fact, Randle leads all projected bench players in fantasy points per minute on the slate – over 1.4 per minute. Randle owners should hope he avoids being matched up with Draymond Green, as Golden State’s defense is only 24^th against opposing centers, but 9^th against power forwards.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

Annie: “Hey jerk! Speed kills!”

O/U – 234.5
’17-’18 Pace
Dallas – 26^th (up to 14^th so far this year)
Los Angeles – 3^rd

DeAndre Jordan ($8,300) – While the real life Mavericks have many things to figure out with their young team, for DFS purposes, we believe speed is a good thing – and it’s showing in output and opportunity for the Mavericks offensive unit. Jumping those 12 spots in Pace so far this year has increased their points per game from 102.3 last year to 111.1 this year, while their Offensive Rating has also jumped from 105.4 to 106.6. Most importantly, the faster pace translates to more offensive possessions and more opportunity for guys like Jordan. Getting to face a bottom-five team in both defensive efficiency and defensive real plus-minus at his position, he may not need to do much more than just overpower Javale McGee on the low block. Looking beyond matchup, the pace has overwhelmingly helped Jordan this season with his new team. DeAndre has seen spikes over last year in player efficiency rating, true shooting %, defensive rebounding percentage, assist %, and block %. – all with a slight dip in usage rate from last year.

Brandon Ingram ($7,100) – Ingram playing shooting guard against the likes of someone like Wesley Matthews truly is not fair. In fact, of all players who have played at least 15 minutes so far this season, Matthews is ranked 274^th in defensive rating. The Lakers also know that speed doesn’t kill on the basketball court. Despite dropping from 3^rd last season to 4^th this season in pace, their raw number has gone up from 100.97 to 106.42. Ingram missing three games depressed his price some, and I just can’t believe that the cost has not caught up to the fact that he is back in the starting lineup, this game has a 234.5 total, and that Ingram is going to have a broken lawn chair in front of him all night long on defense.

BONUS PLAYER

Doctor Loomis: “He’s gone from here! The evil is gone!”

Derrick Rose ($5,500) – With the locker room surely celebrating that the evil drama of Jimmy Butler may soon be gone, no player stands to benefit more while Butler goes on a self-inflicted hiatus than Derrick Rose. D-Rose already averages 28 minutes per game and a 24.8% true usage rate and with Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, and perhaps Andrew Wiggins missing this game, Rose is going to get as much work as he can handle. Look for plenty of Rose drives to the lane, with equal opportunity to score or dish to KAT. The offense will flow through Rose tonight while the team figures out how to get Jimmy Butler out of town.