Tampa Bay Lightning:

Palat($5.2k)-Johnson($5.6k)-Kucherov($7.9k)

Chicago Blackhawks:

DeBrincat($6.3k)-Toews($7.1k)-Kahun($3.6k)

Edmonton Oilers:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins($6.2k)-McDavid($9k)-Rattie($4.6k)

New Jersey Devils:

Palmieri($6.5k)-Hischier($5.8k)-Hall($7.7k)

Columbus Blue Jackets:

Atkinson($7k)-Dubois($6.2k)-Panarin($7.8k)

Defense Value Plays:

Morrissey($4.4k) vs. VAN

Butcher($4.2k) vs. NJ

Tanev($4k) @ WPG

Hagg($3.8k) @ CLS

Jokiharju($3.9k) vs ARI

Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime matchups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

In NBA DFS, there is a simple equation I try to use for lineup construction:

Pace of Play
+ Opportunity
+ Efficiency 
Dollars

More than any other raw stat such as points per game or minutes or even +/-, these under-the-hood factors break through all the noise to find the roots from which production can grow. More advanced stats, freely available at NBA.com or many other places, such as Pace Rating, Usage% and Effective FG% paint a much clearer picture of how players are used and how we can maximize their value.

I’m not that good at the maths so I have not found the right quantitative combination of factors and stats to turn my equation into a featured product and sell it for $39.99 a month, but as a qualitative measure these three variables are always on my radar. I am usually asking myself the following questions:

What is the game’s total over/under?
What Pace rank do the two teams have this year?
Who is in the starting lineup?
What injuries or limitations do players have on a slate?
What players are stepping into roles opened up by injuries?
What aspects of a player’s game correlate well with the matchup (i.e. % of points from 3-pointers versus a bad 3-point defensive team)?
What scheduling factors do we need to consider such as four games in five nights or veterans needing rest?

For the first full NBA slate of the season, let’ open up some Pace Picante Sauce and dip into the lineups and matchups. I know, that was terrible. I’ll just go

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks

O/U – 215.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Atlanta – 8^th
New York – 17^th

Interestingly during this preseason, both of these teams took quite a significant step up in pace. The Hawks jumped up to 3^rd in the league while the Knicks made a larger leap to 10^th. With Trae Young running the show down in Hotlanta these days, you can expect some rapid pace out of the Hawks. Tonight, because of injuries, Vince Carter is expected to be in the Atlanta starting five. There is actually some video of Young and Carter practicing together that has emerged this week.

Alex Len ($5,100) – Those same injuries have opened up some opportunity for Len as a tremendous value play. With both John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon out tonight, there is next to no competition for Len to have massive minutes. Based on several sites, Len is projected to have the highest points-per-dollar number on the slate, and should be locked into cash lineups as well as tournaments.

Tim Hardaway, Jr. ($6,300) – The Knicks are also dealing with their share of injuries, with Kristaps Porzingis, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Courtney Lee all likely out tonight. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway are likely to do the bulk of the heavy lifting and ball-handling at MSG. Hardaway was a top-10 guard last season in percentage of three pointers taken for their team, and he hit 38.5% of them. Any significant increase in number of possessions for the Knicks could mean a major boost in scoring while Unicorn Porzingis is on the shelf.

New Orleans Pelican @ Houston Rockets

O/U – 230
’17-’18 Pace:
New Orleans – 1^st
Houston – 14^th

Any time we see an NBA game with an over/under of 230 or higher, we need some major exposure. This game is four points higher than any other contest on the slate and has the makings of a 1980’s-Alex-English-style shootout with star power from every position on the court. Your usual suspects – Harden, Paul, the Brow, Capela, Mirotic – should all feast, but there might also be some value gems in this one.

Jrue Holiday ($8,300) – It’s crazy to think that a player at $8,300 is the fourth priciest player in a single game, but here we are. With Rajon Rondo out of town, and Elfrid Payton new to this system, Holiday is the engine that should make this offense run for the time being. Holiday posted his highest career eFG% last year which tends to happen when you play alongside a passer like Rondo and offensive juggernaut like Anthony Davis. You may have heard that James Harden is not exactly known for his defense these days, so feel free to deploy Holiday without hesitation.

James Ennis ($3,500) – There is actually a starter available in this game for the stone cold minimum price. Losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, Houston replaced them with Ennis and Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is a zero defensively (and some might say offensively at this point), so look for Ennis to log a decent share of the minutes, especially if a defensive presence is needed at the end of the game. A career 35.9% shooter from three, he fits well into the Rockets live-by-the-three-die-by-the-three mentality.

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns

O/U – 215
’17-’18 Pace:
Dallas – 26^th
Phoenix – 2^nd

Dallas is another team pressing the gas this preseason, creeping up to 21^st, but it’s Phoenix that will keep this game a track meet with their young, athletic players all over the floor. Even though the starting forwards for Phoenix might nominally be Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson, I believe we will see heavy minutes from Josh Jackson and T.J Warren, two players who can catch fire in a hurry. Unless you were one of the nine people paying attention to late-season Suns game last year, you might have missed Jackson’s production. Here are his last five games of the season with Fanduel points:

But I guess I am burying the lede here somewhat. This game touts the HIGHLY anticipated matchup of super-rookies Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic. As just a pure basketball fan, I cannot wait to see what these guys have in store for us.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,800) – Harrison Barnes is officially out for this game, opening up increased usage for DFS (hey, that’s convenient). Smith became a nice piece for the Mavericks towards the end of last season. On Fanduel, he averaged 25.9 points per game while seeing 34.5 minutes of floor time in his last four games. I know Barnes is on the big contract, but there may be some opportunity here for Smith to show the Mavericks what he can do with an expanded role.

Deandre Ayton ($7,200) – Take a photo of that price, because I imagine it’s the last time we see it that low this season, and maybe for Ayton’s entire career. Tonight we’ve got guys like Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, and Nikola Vucevic priced ahead of Ayton. As the season starts to even out, we will likely see some heavyweight battles for Center pricing – with Towns, Drummond, Jokic, and Ayton as the Mount Rushmore of Centers in 2018-2019. The matchup tonight with Jordan may seem daunting, but the numbers from last year tell a different tale. In fact, Jordan was the 49^th ranked center in total defensive win shares across his 77 games. Ayton is just too fast and too springy to let this matchup scare me.

What an amazing start to the NHL daily fantasy season it has been for us. Tonight the national hockey league is giving us another opportunity to keep this hot streak alive. On this Tuesday night we have an 8 game slate; with 5 teams having favorable matchups.

Colorado Avalanche:
Landeskog($5.9k)-MacKinnon($8.9k)-Rantanen($6.9k)

New Jersey Devils:
Hall($7.8k)-Hischier($5.9k)-Palmieri($6.4k)

Tampa Bay Lightning:
Stamkos($7.6k)-Point($6.4k)-Gourde($5.3k)

Winnipeg Jets:
Connor($5.6k)-Scheifele($7.3k)-Wheeler($7.3k)

Minnesota Wild:
Parise($6.6k)-Koivu($5.4k)-Granlund($6.4k)

Defense Value plays:

Dumoulin ($4k) vs VAN

Morrissey($4.4k) vs EDM

Dumba($4.4k) vs ARI

Girard($3.9k) @ NYR

Twitter account: @DevinSwsiher2

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Dak Prescott – 183 Passing Yards/2 TDs, 82 Rushing Yards/1 TD

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars of all teams, Prescott scores 33.52 fantasy points and ends Week 6 as the fifth highest scoring QB behind Mahomes, Winston, Ryan, and Brocktober Osweiler.

I don’t think anyone in the DFS industry saw this type of performance coming. I can’t remember seeing a single “play Dak” take out there last week. Maybe some MME, 150-lineup players sprinkled in some contrarian Dak here and there, but this was certainly not on the radar with all of the other potential QB boom spots available.

Truly it was the rushing that props up this fantasy score. Without the 82 yards and score on the ground, Prescott finishes as the 17^th or 18^th best QB on the day. Dak was so good on the ground, just his rushing totals would have slotted him as the 10^th best RB on the main slate. But is the rushing sustainable?

Prescott’s history would push us towards probably not at this high level. A quick glance at Dak’s game log on Pro Football Reference shows that the 11 attempts were his most ever (next highest is 8), and the 82 yards are also a career high (37 yards more than his previous high!).

This was such a weird game all the way around. I don’t think Jacksonville actually made it to Arlington. Someone was in their uniforms, but I think the Jags got lost in Fort Worth or Irving or something. This game and performance screams fluke to me – the pass attempts and yards were both in the bottom half of Prescott’s career games and were nothing special.

Verdict – Leave It

Tarik Cohen – 5 Rushes/31 Yards, 9 Targets/7 Receptions/90 Yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost

Another weird game. Glancing through one of the Fanduel tournaments I entered, the Bears DST was 34% owned (including by me) in one! So while the Jordan Howard and Bears DST correlation did not materialize as expected, we should evaluate Cohen’s usage and prognosticate its implications.

Through the Bears first five games, four of them have been decided by seven points or less. This is important because Cohen is not being game-scripted out so far. Besides the beating they gave Tampa Bay – were Cohen was a key part of the game plan – the Bears are not running up the score and then letting Howard run out the clock.

Depending on whether you are a Howard or Cohen owner, there is an interesting development happening with the Bears’ running back usage. Here are the snap counts for the two primary running backs since the beginning of the season:

That’s the right direction for Cohen owners and the wrong direction for Howard. Amplifying those numbers is Cohen’s market share of the targets. In the Bears first three games, Cohen never had more than 11% of the pie, but in the past two games, he has seen at least 30% of the target share.

Matt Nagy is finding creative ways to use Cohen and they may never turn back. There will surely be some grind out the clock games for Howard over the balance of the season, but in terms of opportunity and value targets, the arrow is pointing up for Cohen.

Verdict – Since it’s almost Halloween…

Albert Wilson – 9 Targets/6 Receptions/155 Yards, 2 TDs

Your highest-scoring wide receiver on the main slate, ladies and gentlemen. Just like everyone predicted. This guy was doing some crazy things out there with Brocktober today. However, I noticed an interesting Tweet yesterday afternoon:

In Wilson’s two biggest plays this season, he exploded for 149 Yards After the Catch, when the expected yards After the Catch were just six. That’s both exciting and concerning at the same time. Digging around, you might see some Tyreek Hill lite comparisons out there for Wilson, and I think that’s fair. What that also implies is that there will be some tremendous boom and bust weeks. For example, his fantasy points per week so far in 2018 are 5.3, 12, 26.5, 4.1, 6.8, and 37 yesterday. So he is always getting you something, but in only two of six games has he had these other-worldly performances.

Simply put, Wilson is probably best reserved as a tournament play. He is someone like a Desean Jackson or a Robby Anderson who can unleash these monster games at any time, but it’s not worth banging your head in a car door to predict how consistently they will come.

Verdict – Leave It

David Njoku – 12 Targets(!)/7 Receptions/55 Yards, 1 TD

This may be an obvious answer, but it’s worth highlighting the game and usage that Njoku has over the past month. This guy is on the verge of forcing his way into the top tier of tight ends if he hasn’t done so already. Every metric for Njoku is trending up the past month: air yards share, target share, number of targets, receptions, and he finally caught his first touchdown on Sunday.

Njoku’s next opponent? The Falcons, coming off giving up a touchdown to Cameron Brate on his only catch and a 4-62-1 line to a one-legged O.J. Howard.

You ever see that movie The Wizard, with Fred Savage and a bunch of other 1980’s mainstays? In the final scene, the main character is competing in a video game championship and it is the first time that Super Mario Bros 3 is unveiled. The kid figures out how to warp and gets to go to some next-level gaming on the other chumps.

That’s what it will probably feel like with Njoku only $5,700 on next Sunday’s slate. He’s a Week 7 cheat code.

Verdict – Take It

The Price is Right: Week 6 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

Jameis Winston – This was a smash spot and everyone knew it going in. He even added 31 rushing yards to make up for the two interceptions. Holy crap, the Bucs and Falcons have bad defenses. Grade: A

Jordan Howard – As highlighted above, I should have noticed the downward usage trend for Howard. I still thought it would be a churn out the clock game, especially when Tannehill was ruled out, but Howard needed a 19-yard run in overtime just to establish a respectable fantasy total. Grade: C-

Chris Carson – The touches and yards were ok, but having him get shutout after multiple attempts at the goal line was tilting. At first and goal from the 2-yard line in the first quarter, Carson rushes for one yard, gets denied a TD because of a false start penalty, then rushes for no gain. After building a 27-3 lead, Carson didn’t even see a touch in the fourth quarter. Grade: C+

Mohamed Sanu – Left very early with a hip injury so we have to grade on a little bit of a curve here. He did catch his only two targets, one of which went for a 35-yard touchdown. His aDOT on those two targets was his highest of the season, so I believe a big day was in store. His hip is something to monitor, however, since it Iimited him in practice last week. Grade: A-

Jarvis Landry – Nine targets: Awesome. Two catches: Awful. Not sure what to do here because this was one of his worst games as a pro. The only one assuredly worse was a two-catch, five-yard game three years ago against Baltimore. He only had five targets in that game, so we may have to chalk this up to a bad connection with Mayfield and sometimes results don’t match up with process. Grade: B-

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to help you take your lineup construction to the next level. Let’s jump in.

Buccaneers at Falcons (-3, 57)
With the highest Vegas total on the main slate, Sunday’s Bucs-Falcons tilt is going to be very popular in both cash games and tournaments. Everyone will want a piece of this game and understandably so, but let’s look at the target shares to see if there’s an opportunity to zig while everyone else zags:

Mike Evans ($8,000) – 26.1%
DeSean Jackson ($6,500) – 14.7%
Chris Godwin ($5,900) – 14.7%
O.J. Howard ($5,500) – 11.4%
Cameron Brate ($4,500) – 6.7%

Julio Jones ($8,500) – 29.8%
Mohamed Sanu ($5,800) – 16.8%
Calvin Ridley ($6,700) – 14.1%
Austin Hooper ($5,600) – 14.6%

Evans and Jones project to have the highest ownership while Brate could join them pending the availability of Howard. Depending on where you are in your DFS development, the term “chalk” may seem like a dirty word. If you want to roster Evans and Jones in a lineup, go for it. There’s no need to be afraid of chalk plays if you differentiate your lineups elsewhere. Alternatively, you can reap the benefits of this presumptive shootout by rostering/stacking the secondary pieces who could chew off a large chunk of the scoring opportunities for themselves. Don’t be afraid to explore a Jackson-Ridley game stack as they both possess the big play ability and high ceiling we want in our tournament lineups. If you’re feeling particularly adventurous, Ronald Jones ($5,600) won’t be heavily owned, and if he’s able to come out of the bye week with a better grasp of his responsibilities, he could be profitable. Again, that’s certainly a high-risk maneuver, but it underscores the overall point when looking at ways to attack a potentially explosive matchup: don’t be afraid to get creative in order to build a unique lineup.

Jaguars (-3, 40.5) at Cowboys
Opportunity is king. And opportunity is what Ezekiel Elliott ($8,100) receives at a staggering rate — he has received a hand-off or target on 42 percent of the 290 plays the Cowboys have run this season. The Cowboys’ embarrassing receiving corps coupled with the Jaguars’ top-ranked pass defense suggests Elliott will see as much opportunity as he can handle, especially if the game remains as close as Vegas believes it will. While not exactly porous against the run either, Jacksonville does surrender 101.2 yards per game on the ground (14th fewest), so there figures to be a little more breathing room for Dallas’ rushing attack. This looks like an ugly matchup for the Cowboys, but Elliott’s expected opportunity combined with relatively low ownership provide DFSers with a potentially profitable pivot from more popular backs in a similar price range.

Seahawks (-2.5, 48.5) at Raiders
The Seahawks and Raiders cross the pond for the season’s first trip to London, and Vegas has painted an encouraging picture of a closely contested and fairly high-scoring showcase — a high-scoring showcase that could see both teams’ featured runners enjoy success. Rushing accounts for 38.7 percent of Seattle’s yardage gained and 31.4 percent of Oakland’s yardage allowed, so the Seahawks’ Chris Carson ($6,400) and his 17.5 touches per game (27 per game over last two weeks) finds himself in a promising game script. On the other side of the coin, Marshawn Lynch ($6,500) and his 17.8 touches per game may find some running room as well. Oakland prefers an aerial attack as opposed to a ground and pound approach, but Seattle has managed to provide more resistance through the air thus far in the season, creating a funnel opportunity for the Raiders and Lynch to exploit. As long as this game remains competitive, neither offense will be forced to abandon the run, allowing Carson and Lynch to take advantage of their opponent’s 4.9 and 4.7 yards per carry allowed, respectively.

QUICK HITTERS
The Chicago Bears (-3.5, 44.5) have been particularly stout against the run, allowing only 3.4 YPC over four games, three of which held a neutral game script throughout much of the contest. That suggests the Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill ($6,600) may have to rely on their passing game to move the ball. He’s a cheap and overlooked alternative to the popular options this week, but make sure you keep tabs on his shoulder ahead of kickoff as he’s currently listed as questionable. … If you’re looking for a “free square” this week, Antonio Callaway ($4,900) offers some promise. The Browns naturally want to protect their rookie quarterback with a heavy reliance on the run, but passing yardage has accounted for 73.8 percent of the total output allowed by the Chargers. While Callaway is only third on the team with a 15.4 percent target share, he is second on the team in air yards and first in average depth of target (min. 10 targets). He would strictly be a tournament play as you’re chasing a home run — or two — but he’s getting the playing time (63.2 snap percentage overall) and receiving “big play” targets.

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

Of all the things that I enjoy that define the entirety of my nerdiness, game-show game theory stands out. Game-show game theory is truly what nerds think is nerdy. I understand, but I gotta be me. I can scream just as loud at my team, the Texans, as I can at the bidding strategies of the three contestants on Final Jeopardy. I need to make that confession before we dive in here.

It’s safe to assume that everyone has heard of Contestant’s Row on The Price is Right. If you have any knowledge of the show, you understand that this is the process of four contestants bidding on a prize to earn their way on stage for a chance at the larger prizes and a shot at the Showcase Showdown at the end. What I think is much less known is HOW to maximize your chances of winning Contestant’s Row.

Taking advantage of the inefficiencies of that Contestant’s Row process is key to an optimal bid and a better chance at a Drew Carey hug. Seeing a model walk by with a collection of designer sunglasses and then guessing their value is just not an everyday occurrence. People are not used to that type of analysis and pressure and are not good at it. Depending on the order of your guess, it’s probably best to play off the other contestants instead of a random guessing game where you have zero knowledge or experience. For example:

Now, on The Price is Right you can just hope to get lucky and that some kind of inefficiency falls into your lap

or you can look at each game in front of you and attempt to leverage it to your advantage. There has even been research done on the optimal strategy of every game on The Price is Right and how rational are the decisions of contestants on the show. If you want to take down the games, the information is out there.

I say all this to reference an excellent point that was made in Sammy Reid’s piece on Rotogrinders in Week 5 – The Reid Option. In the piece, he talks about his belief that cheaper wide receivers have become the new market inefficiency in the 2018 NFL. We have never seen scores this high or passing with this frequency, so until the market (DFS sites, other players, etc.) catch up to it, we should continue to use it to our advantage. In previous weeks, these value players have all led to winning lineups:

Tyler Boyd
Sterling Shepherd
Robby Anderson
Kenny Stills
Desean Jackson
Ted Ginn, Jr.
Calvin Ridley
Keke Coutee
Donte Moncrief
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

None of these are guys who were in upper tiers of preseason ranks or were players drafted in the top 10 rounds of any season-long league. But as long as these types of pass-catchers continue to be week-winners, we will continue to try and unearth them from helpful data like snap counts, target share, and opportunities close to the goal line.

Each slate sets up uniquely and there will always be a Week 1 James Conner or a Week 5 T.J. Yeldon, but the wide receivers seem to be dominating with so much more frequency. Fading these plays can leave us on the outside looking in. With running backs priced up in Week 6, those values are going to be key to cashing.

Quarterback – Jameis Winston ($7,400)

The troublesome thing about game theory is that it can too often lead to paralysis by analysis. Some things you just can’t overthink. I am sure if Google “week six” and “value QB’ you will find, as my son would say, eight bajillion opinion pieces claiming Winston is the play this week. But just because it’s the chalk doesn’t make it wrong.

Here are the Fanduel QB points so far against the Falcons thru Week 5:

Nick Foles – 5.58 (granted, this is bad, but it’s also Nick Foles in a lightning-delayed primetime game)
Cam Newton – 28.60
Drew Brees – 40.54
Andy Dalton – 25.78
Ben Roethlisberger – 22.60

Even with the Foles game, you are looking at 24.62 points per game. What is also intriguing about those matchups and projecting Week 6 is what has become a standard DFS play in 2018 – pass catching running backs against the Falcons. The Panthers, Saints, Bengals, and Steelers all have outstanding pass catching backs and utilized them extensively in their game plans. The Bucs rely on Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers. This could mean Winston will be forced to rely more heavily on deeper throws, trusting his elite arsenal of Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate.

The over/for this game is 57.5 – 4.5 points higher than the next closest contest. Both teams have dumpster fire defenses (more on that later) and elite offenses. A shootout is coming and we are going to want the trigger that will fire up the scoring.

Full Disclosure – Devonta Freeman was ruled out right after I finished writing this, so Tevin Coleman ($6,300) is the real answer to your cheap running back problems.

Running Back – Jordan Howard ($6,200)

Let’s get one thing out of the way first. Howard has awful in his last game. Against Tampa Bay, he rushed 11 times for 25 yards and had one target that he did not catch. But since the Bears won the game by 900 points and Mitchell Montana threw for six touchdowns, Howard just wasn’t needed. Against the Dolphins, however, the script should be wildly different.

According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins have the 5^th best pass defense in 2018. Against the run, it’s been a different story. Only one week this year has Miami played the run well – Week 2 against the Jets. In their other four games, their opponents have averaged 125.75 rushing yards and one touchdown. I mean they allowed more than five yards per carry to Doug Martin in Week 3. Come on.

Including Week 4, Howard plays on 65% of the snaps per game and averages 55% of the rushing share (again, including a 35% share in Week 4 – he was at 77% in Week 3). He also has every rush for the Bears inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks.

Blend all these numbers up with the fact that the Bears are three point favorites on the road and have the seventh highest percentage of rushing plays in the league, and the script sets up for a big week for Howard.

Running Back – Chris Carson ($6,400)

I couldn’t be more chuffed about this football match, bloke. T’will be quite the sight to see the Seahawks try to queer the Raiders pitch in ole Londontown.

Rich Hribar had a fascinating stat in his Week 6 Worksheet Column this week. He found that 87.5% of Chris Carson’s rush attempts have gained positive yardage – second most in the league for running backs with more than 50 attempts. So we can check the production box.

In the first two weeks of 2018, the Seahawks experimented with five different running backs – Carson, Mike Davis, Rashaad Penny, C.J. Prosise, and Tre Madden. By the time Week 5 rolled around, that number funneled down to two. Carson played on 58% of the snaps and Davis played on 48%. No other running back even attempted a rush in week 5. Russell Wilson – who has rushed 5.6 times per game in his career – also didn’t rush once in Week 5. Branches on this rushing usage tree are rapidly falling off, and Carson is beginning to reap the benefits – 54 touches the past two weeks! Check for the usage box.

You don’t need me to tell you how bad the Raiders are at stopping the run. They are 24^th and falling fast.

Wide Receiver – Mohamed Sanu ($5,800)

I think the White Stripes said it best:

“In some respects I suspect you’ve got a respectable side.”

Well you don’t know what love is until you play a wide receiver against the Tampa Bay pass defense. Sanu has been showing his respectable side lately as the Falcons defense continues to struggle and they are forced into some heavy passing game flows.

In these shootouts, Sanu’s usage has been on the rise. Look at the chart below from Jim Sannes’ matchups to exploit column from this week:

Besides the fact that the 0.0% of red-zone targets to Julio Jones makes my eyes bleed, you can see how Sanu is working his way into usage. He is second in overall target share and second in red-zone targets in this three game sample.

In addition, among wide receives on the Falcons he has the second highest target share, overall targets and receptions the past two games. He continues to outpace Calvin Ridley in snap percentage, and now leads him 81% to 61% on the season.

Back to the 57.5 over/under in this game for a moment. The primary culprit for that number has to be the Tampa Bay pass defense. According to Football Outsiders, they are in the basement and score significantly worse than the 31^st ranked pass defense (New Orleans). They are being absolutely torched and are giving up 40.7 Fanduel points per game to wide receivers.

Wide receiver – Jarvis Landry ($6,900)

I truly, madly, deeply wanted to write about Robert Woods in this space, and he may still be underpriced, but all the reports out of Rams camps this week have been generally positive about the concussions for Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp, so there may be more skill players to fit into the pie this week. With that uncertainly, let’s pivot to Landry who is $400 cheaper.

Sometimes it’s baffling how underrated Landry can be. His average targets per game sits at 11.6 – third in the NFL, behind only Brown and Thielen. He is targeted more than Hopkins, Julio, Diggs, Adams, Michael Thomas, etc. And half of his playing time has been with Tyrod Taylor under center. He is also third in target share percentage at 30.9% behind only Brown and Hopkins.

The Chargers have a very middle of the pack pass defense – currently ranked 16^th – but that masks what could be a potential inefficiency in how the Browns will approach this game. According to Player Profiler, Landry plays 62.6% of his snaps in the slot this year. The Chargers’ best cornerback, Casey Hayward, only has lined up in the slot 2.4% of the time in his five games in 2018.

Beyond Hayward, the Chargers have no one who can cover Landry in that position. What I love about this opportunity for Landry is that even though he is coming primarily out of the slot, he has still led his team in air yards market share in three of five games. Usage plus a soft defense. Landry should feast.

We are back with a huge 12 game slate of hockey tonight. Puck drop will start as early as 7pm. Tuesday night was a great night for my picks in the QuickPick entry. I placed 1st place out of 342 people to win $100 dollars. The stacks have been on fire lately; 6 players out of the 9 scored a point or more on Tuesday! Especially the Dallas Stars top line, they had 8 points combined between the three of them. We look to continue the hot streak on this Thursday night slate. Three teams that are playing tonight have favorable match-ups on tonight’s slate; Colorado Avalanche, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Chicago Blackhawks.

Colorado Avalanche:

Landeskog($5.9k)-MacKinnon($8.6k)-Rantanen($6.8k)

Colorado Avalanche are traveling to Buffalo to take on the Sabres. The Avalanche top line almost looks unstoppable. Nathan MacKinnon’s line could be one of the most complete line in the NHL; they have it all from speed, and goal scoring to physicality. The Colorado Avalanche first line will take advantage of this young Buffalo team.

Tampa Bay Lightning:

Brayden Point($6.5k)-Gourde($4.7k)

The reason I only have two players in this section is because no one is really sure who is playing with these two young stars yet. Some reports are saying Tyler Johnson might make his season debut tonight and if he does he will complete this line. The fact of the matter is, that it does not matter who plays with them. These two players will thrive in this fast pace game against the Canucks. Tampa Bay Lightning’s Brayden Point, and Yanni Gourde also offer you some nice salary relief tonight.

Chicago Blackhawks:

DeBrincat($6k)-Toews($7.1k)-Kahun($3.6k)

The Chicago Blackhawks will be traveling to Xcel Enegry Center to faceoff against the Minnesota Wild. The Blackhawks season did not go according to plan last season, they did not even make it into the Stanley Cup playoffs. Chicago is not trying to make that same mistake again this season. They are off to a pretty good start with their record being 2-0-1 in their first three games. The Blackhawks two stars Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are stepping up for their respected club so far. Jonathan Toews looks like a completely different player from last season; he looks faster, more physical, and hungrier. Tonight the Chicago Blackhawks have a tough task ahead of them in the Wild. If Chicago wants to win this game they need the Toews line to step up like they have been.

Defense Value Plays:

Josh Morrissey($4.2k) vs. NSH

Henri Jokiharju($3.9k) vs. MIN

Charlie McAvoy($4.8k) vs. EDM

Mikhail Sergachev($4.4k) vs. VAN

Devin Swisher

Twittwr account:@DevinSwisher2

After a somewhat quiet weekend for the NHL, we are back tonight with a 6 game slate. Tonight there are three stacks that I think have favorable matchups.

Vancouver Canucks: 

Goldobin(3.6k)-Pettersson($5.2k)-Eriksson($4.7k)

The Canucks second line has been on fire the past two games. Elias Pettersson is a thrill to watch every time he steps on the ice; the rookie has three goals and two assist in his first two NHL games. This line tallied 11 points in two games for their club. They are playing against another favorable matchup tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Pettersson line will give you some salary relief tonight as you can see the most you have to spend on them is $5.2k.

LA Kings: 

Iafallo($3.7k)-Kopitar($7.4k)-Kovalchuk($6.7k)

The Kings acquired Ilya Kovalchuk this offseason after he left the league in 2013. Kovalchuk compliments his new line mates, Kopitar, and Iafallo nicely; these three players combined scored 7 points in the first two games. The Kings have a tough matchup tonight against the Winnipeg Jets. If the Kings want to win tonight on the road this line will need to do some damage like they have the past two games.

Dallas Stars:

Benn($8.3k)-Seguin($7.9k)-Radulov($6.4k)

This line has been rolling lately, which should be no surprise to anyone. Jamie Benn has been off to a hot start this season so far with 2 goals and 3 assists in two games. The Stars top line has 13 points in two games. The Dallas Stars will faceoff tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs, which will probably be the game of the night. The Maple Leafs have let their opponents score a total of 13 goals in three games.

Defensive value players:

Robert Hagg($3.7k) vs. SJ

Samuel Girard($4.2k) vs. CLS

Connor Carrick($3.6k) vs TOR

Devin Swisher

Twitter Account: @Devin-Swisher2

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Kenyan Drake – 6 rushes/46 yards, 11 targets/7 receptions/69 yards, 1 receiving touchdown

Drake’s 21 fantasy points on Sunday were more than his past three weeks combined (19.1). While he did manage a healthy yards per carry on his six rush attempts, it is his work in the passing game that truly stands out. Eleven targets (once again more than the last three weeks combined, 10) accounted for 33% of the Dolphins’ air targets, almost doubling his closest teammate. Miami clearly saw something they wanted to exploit in the short field and Drake benefited greatly from the Tannehill check downs.

A more involved Drake in the passing game means more opportunity for him to exploit his big play potential. I’m intrigued.

He was still out-rushed 12-6 by Frank Gore, and it seems clear that Miami is going to stay committed Gore for as long as his 82-year old body can withstand it, so even with a healthy yards per carry, don’t expect rushing to be a significant part of Drake’s game without more opportunity.

Here is a quick comparison of their weekly rushing attempts:

There is a pattern developing here. Dolphins rush = more Gore, hate the Drake. Tread carefully next week, however. The Bears are on the schedule.

Verdict: Rushing – Leave it, Receiving – Take it

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 10 targets/7 receptions/68 yards, 1 touchdown

See below for my crow-eating on Ty Montgomery. Once it became clear that Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison would both miss the game, and with a potential shootout on tap, I assumed a lot of opportunity would be sent Montgomery’s way. Not so much – yesterday was the MVS show.

MVS was in on 95% of Green Bay’s snaps, not only highest on his team but tied for 8^th highest among all players. We haven’t fully seen it until this week, but Rodgers clearly has a connection with his new receiver and it was on full display against the Lions.

I always buy into the squeaky wheel narrative with the NFL (Exhibit 1A: Odell Beckham, Jr., Week 5), so when Aaron Rodgers comes out after a 22-0 win in week 4 and talks about points left on the field and more players needing to be involved, I am paying attention. If Cobb and/or Allison are out for any extended time, Valdes-Scantling may take the #2 job and never look back.

Verdict:

Robby Anderson – 5 targets/3 receptions/123 yards, 2 touchdowns

Well. That was an impressive day. How do we evaluate the Anderson/Sam Darnold pairing in future weeks?

Anderson’s catches yesterday were outstanding. Out-running and out-jumping defenders on his two long touchdowns. On his first touchdown, it looks like Bradley Roby is moving in slow motion compared to Anderson. Beautiful.

However, Anderson’s yardage totals for the first four weeks were: 41, 27, 22, 18. That’s a total of 108. That’s less than 123. I’m a modern-day Will Hunting.

His 22.7% target share and 39.1% air yards share are easily season highs. His receptions and average depth of target were all in perfect alignment with the previous four weeks. His smells a little bit to me like the Denver secondary is not the crew we used to know and Darnold took advantage of Anderson being able to burn them. I am willing to concede this might be the beginning of some strong rapport between the two – Quincy Enunwa’s target share has fallen each week of the season – but I need to see it again before I buy in.

Verdict – Leave it

Ezekiel Elliott – 20 rushes/54 yards, 7 targets/7 receptions/30 yards, 0 touchdowns

Man, that 2.7 yards per rush looks ugly.

But let’s not overthink this. The motley crew that makes up the Cowboys wide receivers could do nothing against an average Texans secondary, leaving players like J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Benardrick McKinney to feast at the line of scrimmage. There were multiple tackles for loss in this game and several “how did he not get sacked?” moments by Dak Prescott last night. The Texans were pushing through the offensive line all night.

Elliott’s 27 touches, 20 rushes, and 7 targets are all his second highest of the season. His 2.7 yards per carry is two yards below his prior low for 2018. The volume is there, the offense flows through Zeke, his offense just ran into a brick wall on Sunday night.

Verdict – Leave it

The Price is Right: Week 5 Recap

Where we grade my value play selections from before the games.

Derek Carr – Carr did have a 94.0 passer rating and game flow set up perfectly for Carr to air it out, but he was denied a bigger day by a costly Martavis Bryant fumble and an interception on the doorstep of the end zone. In the end, trusting this Raiders team to be consistent offensively should earn me an “F” from the start. It was also Bad Amari Cooper week, with 3% target share and one catch. Grade: C

Ty Montgomery – See notes on MVS above. This one was brutal. Only three snaps from the slot combined with three targets and four rushing attempts. Game flow was positive, but Rodgers wanted his other pass catchers today. Exacerbating the low usage – his average depth of target was MINUS .67 yards. Grade: D-

David Johnson – The good: 20 touches, 2 touchdowns. The bad: 55 yards on 18 carries, he also had a negative aDOT for the game. It’s a good thing he gets volume and goal-line work. Grade: B+

Taywan Taylor – In hindsight, the low total of this game should have turned me off to pass-catchers. Mariota only had to throw 28 times which wiped out opportunity that was available the week before versus Philadelphia. He continues to be second on his team in target share, air yards share, and total air yards, so in a week with more shootout appeal, we might be able to jump back on here. Grade: C-

Donte Moncrief – While more yards and a score would have made his box score look a whole lot better, the under-the-hood numbers are stellar. There was no player on Sunday targeted more than Moncrief and his 15 targets led to a team leading 76 yards. His target share and air yards share also easily led the team. Some of the massive volume can be attributed to Bortles passing 61 times in the game, but in Jaguars games without Fournette that are projected to be high-scoring, it’s a lock that passing Bortles will emerge. Grade: A-

Vance McDonald – An extremely disappointing amount of usage. Only two targets just ain’t going to get it done, even in this wasteland that is the 2018 Tight End. In a game where James Conner was able to do just about whatever he wanted, Roethlisberger only had to throw 29 times and McDonald fell out of the game plan. Grade D

One thing to watch for Week 6:

If Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp cannot recover from their respective concussions, Robert Woods will lead the next Price is Right column, even if he is $10,000.

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel and who we can invite to come on down into our lineups. This won’t be a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

If we are honest with ourselves, playing NFL DFS is really like spinning the Big Wheel and hoping to hit a dollar without busting. With game scores this year in the stratosphere, we have more opportunities to get it right, but with so much variance around game script, opportunities for touchdowns, and personnel, even our most calculated spins are nothing more than educated guesses.

From week to week, the seemingly obvious moves can hit or miss with randomness. In weeks 1 and 4, for example, the mega chalk all hit. Players like Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Emmanuel Sanders, Gio Bernard, Sterling Shepherd, and Eric Ebron met or exceeded expectations, raising DFS cash lines and assuring GPPs could only be won by nailing each and every lineup spot. In these mega chalk weeks, you spin the wheel and it feels like you are hitting jackpot every time.

But then there are weeks like 2 and 3, where the chalk busts leaving us with a T.J. Yeldon taste in our mouths after choking down his 8.1 fantasy points. The process doesn’t lead to the result, and we watch helplessly as Latavius Murray gets two rush attempts. Stupid Murray and Vikings DST stack. We just have to realize that in a game like football the likely outcome doesn’t mean it’s the guaranteed outcome and we have to be ok making it to the showcase with a nickel.

So we press on to week 5. After four weeks, we have a decent sample of who teams are and who they are not. Below is a glance at some of the better underpriced options for the main slate, and a quick breakdown of why they should make our lineups.

Quarterback – Derek Carr ($7,000)

Blake Bortles ($7,000) is likely to be the chalk cash play of the week, facing a Chiefs team that is hemorrhaging points to opposing offenses and carries a game-total of 49 points and a 23 point team-total. With Leonard Fournette out, Bortles’ splits are off the charts in terms of his passing numbers. However, can I interest you in a QB with a game-total of 53 and a 24 team-total for the same price? Derek Carr, come on down.

Despite Jon Gruden’s desire to install an old-school run on first-, second- and third-down offense, the Raiders’ defense hasn’t allowed that to happen. Only four QBs average more pass attempts than Carr on the year, as his team is constantly playing from behind. As five-point underdogs on the road in week five, you can guess what the most likely game script will be. This won’t be a Marshawn Lynch game after about the seven-minute mark of the first quarter.

On the other side of the ball, without Joey Bosa, the Chargers are failing to generate the type of pressure they want to disrupt opposing QBs. Through their first four games, they are tied for 22^nd with only eight sacks on the year. Play Carr with confidence in what should be a shootout in Los Angeles.

Running Back – David Johnson ($7,600)

So let me get this straight, DJ’s fantasy points from weeks 2 thru 4 have gone up from 5.6 to 16.7. His touches have gone from 14 to 25, but his price has dropped $600 in that same timeframe? When I look at those two numbers moving in opposite directions I can only think of

It only took four weeks for the Cardinals’ coaching staff to realize they should let their best player touch the ball the most, but whatever, change is hard. McCoy has only been coaching in the NFL for 18 years, so let’s give him a break.

I can only imagine Johnson’s share of this offense will increase. In that same three week span from weeks 2-4, his target share increased from 7.4% to 16%, his rushing opportunities never dropped below 71%, and he out-snapped all other Arizona RBs by about 6-to-1. He is a true workhorse back who should only get stronger as the year goes along.

But the stat weighing most heavily in Johnson’s favor is his opportunities close to the end zone, where he has six rushes+targets where no one else on his team has more than one.

Running Back – Ty Montgomery ($5,500)

It’s pretty clear that Green Bay is going to use a running back by committee approach this year. With three quality running backs, all with different strengths, the backfield may be a headache throughout the year.

But it’s because we may see Montgomery in a role other than running back this week that makes him so valuable. With Randall Cobb ($6,100) out, Davante Adams ($8,000) and Geronimo Allison ($5,700) battling the calendar to recover from a concussion, that leaves the receiver trio of Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,800), Equanimeous St. Brown ($4,500), and J’Mon Moore ($4,500) to pick up the slack against the Lions. I am not convinced these are real people but rather the product of some kind of wide receiver random name generator. Prove me wrong.

So what is the most likely scenario in a road game against their division-rivals? Rodgers will likely lean on his most trustworthy options. As the best pass-catching back on the roster, Montgomery should soar in that role. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Montgomery lined up frequently in the slot in this game. He has already run five routes out of the slot so far this season. Cobb and Allison have combined for 154 slot routes through four weeks, so look for Montgomery to play more of a receiver role this week, on the field more than just clear passing downs.

Wide Receiver – Taywan Taylor ($5,000)

Number one receiver on his team? Nope. High team total and part of a shootout? Unlikely. Massive weekly production? Only if a high of 11.2 points gives you the feels.

“I think you misspelled Corey Davis.”

So why recommend a receiver in a low-scoring game with options in front of him and no break-the-slate history? Simple: projected opportunity.

Davis ($6,400) will be covered in this game primarily by Tre’Davious White, a defensive back graded well above average by Pro Football Focus. Davis had the stellar game against the Eagles in week 4, but lost in the excitement over his explosion is the usage of Taylor with Delanie Walker out for the year and Rishard Matthews on a bus out of town. Taylor has seen his targets and receiving yards increase each week of the season. In week 4, Taylor also exploded for 110 Air Yards, a top 20 number for the week.

If you can figure out how the Titans want to use their running backs, please DM me, I could use your help. With the running game a mystery, their top receiver covered up during the game, and lacking other options, the recipe is there for a smash spot for Taylor.

Wide Receiver – Donte Moncrief ($5,600)

Trying to determine which Jaguars receiver will have the most productive week seems like a fool’s errand. Dede Westbrook ($5,900), Keelan Cole ($5,700) and Moncrief have all had productive weeks through the first month of the season. However, a peek under the hood reveals we should take the small savings on Moncrief to gain our exposure to this game with a total that is creeping towards 50.

Air Yards is one of the most historically predictive stats for receivers. Moncrief’s average Air Yards through four weeks sits at 62.3. That number is 14 yards higher than Cole and 28 yards higher than Westbrook in the same timeframe. Not surprisingly, Moncrief’s market share of the team’s Air Yards leads the team at 30.5%, which cleanly correlates to his team lead in Average Depth of Target (aDOT) – 11.64.

“What about opportunity?! Rate stats are nice, but is he ever on the field?” Chill out, I got you. Moncrief is averaging 76% of his team’s offensive snaps, trailing only Cole on the year. Moncrief is on the field, he is getting the throws, and Bortles is looking long to him on his targets. The points are coming. This week.

Tight End – Vance McDonald ($4,600)

If there is one thing I have learned reading fantasy football analysis, the author is required to do a Player A vs. Player B blind comparison somewhere in the piece. We are running out of time, so I had better get to it.

Player A
15 targets
12 receptions
200 receiving yards
1 touchdown

Player B
24 targets
17 receptions
233 receiving yards
1 touchdown

Not too much different here. We would probably prefer Player B, but it’s certainly close. You may be surprised to learn that Player A is Vance McDonald through four weeks and Player B is Rob Gronkowski through four weeks.

McDonald is the clear cheap play to get exposure to the offensive game of the week in Pittsburgh. Points should be flowing like the three rivers at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon. McDonald’s increased exposure in the Steeler’s offense ensures he is close to a lineup lock for cash games and tournaments this week. Vance has received exactly five targets in three straight weeks, and in week 4, his share of the Air Yards exploded to 16.9% after hovering around 5% the two weeks prior.

There may be bigger games coming from Antonio Brown ($9,000), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,000), and James Conner ($7,800), but the best chance to get 4x-5x value comes from the Steelers’ tight end. With an implied team-total of 30.5, McDonald is going to get his share.