Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

We have a tidy seven-game slate for this evening in the NBA. These mid-size slates always end up being my favorite. On short slate NBA nights, it so often seems as though everyone is on the same players, so trying to be contrarian usually ends up working well or working horribly. I have been burned many times by subbing in one value play for another, only to be the one guy who missed out on chalk that hit. Larger 10- or 11-game slates often remind me of Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz. The sheer number of possible lineup permutations and potential strong plays makes lineup construction complex and paralyzing. Our potential options for strong plays grow as the number of games increase, but analyzing which of the STRONG plays should become the BEST plays can damage our preparation and roster construction.

So, in honor of October 31, here are some strong Pace plays for Wednesday, inspired by quotes from John Carpenter’s original 1978 Halloween:

(Pace stats will be for last season until four weeks of data are accumulated)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors

Doctor Loomis: “You’ve got to believe me Officer; he is coming to Haddonfield. Because I know him, I’m his doctor! You must be ready for him. If you don’t, it’s your funeral!”

O/U – 235.5
’17-’18 Pace:
New Orleans – 1^st
Golden State – 5^th

Klay Thompson ($6,600) – You better be ready for the Warriors when you play them – it will be your funeral if you are not at the top of your game. You are likely to get 150 points dropped on you like the Bulls did the other night. We of course don’t expect another 14 three pointers and 50 points from Thompson like we saw then (although New Orleans allows opponents to make 35.5% from three), but this is still a player who is averaging 32 minutes a game and just under a point per minute for the season despite two or three abysmal games to start the year. Thompson’s matchup tonight against the Pels is ranked only 28^th in defensive real plus-minus for his position, giving him ample opportunity to shine again. You almost need Anthony Davis to play in this game, making it competitive enough for Klay and the starters to get fourth-quarter minutes.

Julius Randle ($6,600) – Here is a situation where the benefit could come from Davis NOT playing tonight. Randle’s usage with Davis out goes up to well over 30%. This added bonus would be on top of a player who is averaging 23 minutes and 33.5 fantasy points per game on the year. In fact, Randle leads all projected bench players in fantasy points per minute on the slate – over 1.4 per minute. Randle owners should hope he avoids being matched up with Draymond Green, as Golden State’s defense is only 24^th against opposing centers, but 9^th against power forwards.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

Annie: “Hey jerk! Speed kills!”

O/U – 234.5
’17-’18 Pace
Dallas – 26^th (up to 14^th so far this year)
Los Angeles – 3^rd

DeAndre Jordan ($8,300) – While the real life Mavericks have many things to figure out with their young team, for DFS purposes, we believe speed is a good thing – and it’s showing in output and opportunity for the Mavericks offensive unit. Jumping those 12 spots in Pace so far this year has increased their points per game from 102.3 last year to 111.1 this year, while their Offensive Rating has also jumped from 105.4 to 106.6. Most importantly, the faster pace translates to more offensive possessions and more opportunity for guys like Jordan. Getting to face a bottom-five team in both defensive efficiency and defensive real plus-minus at his position, he may not need to do much more than just overpower Javale McGee on the low block. Looking beyond matchup, the pace has overwhelmingly helped Jordan this season with his new team. DeAndre has seen spikes over last year in player efficiency rating, true shooting %, defensive rebounding percentage, assist %, and block %. – all with a slight dip in usage rate from last year.

Brandon Ingram ($7,100) – Ingram playing shooting guard against the likes of someone like Wesley Matthews truly is not fair. In fact, of all players who have played at least 15 minutes so far this season, Matthews is ranked 274^th in defensive rating. The Lakers also know that speed doesn’t kill on the basketball court. Despite dropping from 3^rd last season to 4^th this season in pace, their raw number has gone up from 100.97 to 106.42. Ingram missing three games depressed his price some, and I just can’t believe that the cost has not caught up to the fact that he is back in the starting lineup, this game has a 234.5 total, and that Ingram is going to have a broken lawn chair in front of him all night long on defense.

BONUS PLAYER

Doctor Loomis: “He’s gone from here! The evil is gone!”

Derrick Rose ($5,500) – With the locker room surely celebrating that the evil drama of Jimmy Butler may soon be gone, no player stands to benefit more while Butler goes on a self-inflicted hiatus than Derrick Rose. D-Rose already averages 28 minutes per game and a 24.8% true usage rate and with Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, and perhaps Andrew Wiggins missing this game, Rose is going to get as much work as he can handle. Look for plenty of Rose drives to the lane, with equal opportunity to score or dish to KAT. The offense will flow through Rose tonight while the team figures out how to get Jimmy Butler out of town.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Russell Wilson – 248 Passing Yards/3 TDs, 2 Rush/15 Rushing Yards

That’s three straight games with exactly three passing touchdowns, when Wilson had one such game in his first four to start the season. Along with the touchdown success, the following stats have all improved each week over the last three games: Yards, Passer Rating, Yards Per Attempt, and Completion Rate.

Perhaps more importantly, however, is the improvement of the offensive line since their miserable year in 2017. This season, the Seahawks’ O-line ranks 16^th in pass protection with a 6.7% adjusted sack rate, while they ranked 25^th in the stat last year at 8.1%. This improvement along the line and Wilson minimizing his rushing attempts have led to better throwing opportunities to a steadily improving and healing receiver corps.

The Seahawks next six games look appealing from a passing defense DVOA standpoints. They play the Chargers (ranked 16^th), Rams (7^th), Packers (15^th), Panthers (26^th), 49ers (23^rd), and Vikings (19^th). Feel free to fire up Wilson during that stretch.

Verdict – Take It

Adrian Peterson – 26 Rush/149 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 1 Target/1 Reception/7 Receiving Yards/1 TD

Peterson might just be the easiest player to predict in the NFL this year. Look at the chart below and see if you can spot the correlation:

Any game that has a close script, more specifically any game where the spread is less than a field goal, Peterson is heavily involved in the offensive attack. By no means do I think that Washington is game-planning him out when there are larger spreads, the narrative just becomes close game with a lead = Peterson churn out the yards and the clock, close game while trailing = Peterson is our best player gives the offense the best chance at positive yards. Blowout games where Washington trails become Chris Thompson time and blowout games where Washington leads become save Peterson’s legs for when we need him.

Washington is one of several meh teams in the NFL this year, good enough where it will be rare that they are blown out. Bad enough that they won’t destroy other teams. Interestingly, those outcomes have only happened once each this season. The Redskins rank 22^nd in offensive DVOA and 22^nd in overall defensive DVOA heading into week 9, according to Football Outsiders, aligning squarely within the narrative.

Nothing much needs to be said about Peterson’s talent. We all know he is incredible, even at age 33. What we must account for is predictive game flow.

Verdict – Take It (when the projected spread/game flow account for it)

Philip Lindsay – 18 Rush/95 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 3 Targets/3 Receptions/17 Receiving Yards

Lindsay continues to be incredibly efficient with more opportunity in the wake of the Royce Freeman injury. One of the most surprising stats of the season has to be that Lindsay is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards, having now passed fellow rookie Saquon Barkley (Lindsay is also sixth in yards per rush this year). One of those two was an undrafted free agent. One of them was drafted second overall. In this hot take culture in regards to running backs don’t matter (system over player is my stance), Lindsay v. Barkley is Exhibit 1A that high draft capital should never be spent on a running back.

Lindsay crossed the 60% threshold in week 8 for rushing market share, doubling what Devontae Booker saw when he was on the field. He also was a part of the passing game, drawing over 12% of the target share, a sure-fire sign that Lindsay is not game-flow dependent and the Broncos trust him in all down and yardage situations.

The Broncos simply have no choice but to let Lindsay run free man, even when Freeman comes back from his ankle injury. I will be watching his matchup against the stout Texans run defense closely next week – a true test of how reliable a workhorse Lindsay can be. He passes that test and he may be matchup proof for the balance of the schedule.

Verdict – Take It

Kenny Golladay – 1 Target/1 Reception/12 Receiving Yards

That’s three total targets for Babytron over the last two weeks. Frustrating and confusing. A sampling of the players who outscored Golladay in Week 8 reads as follows: Rashad Greene, Sr., Justin Hunter, Charone Peake, Quadree Henderson, Chad Williams, and I could keep going. I bet there is at least one name on that list you had not heard before now.

But we still can’t dismiss the 8.2 targets per game the five weeks prior. Depending on how you view Golladay’s role in the offense, it could just be that he has been facing tough assignments event though game scripts would seem to be in his favor. Both Miami and Seattle – his last two opponents – rank in the top half of the NFL against #3 receivers, according to Football Outsiders. Golladay saw 92% of the snaps in this game, and by all accounts still appears to be a primary weapon, but the Lions have just continued to feed who their hot hand is in the offense. In Week 8 that was Marvin Jones, Jr. and in Week 7 it was Kerryon Johnson.

This is more a gut call than anything else, but with their next five games against powerhouse offenses (Vikings, Bears twice, Panthers, Rams), I think they are going to give Golladay similar usage to his first five games. The touchdowns will be hit and miss on this team, but I believe the volume is coming.

Verdict – Best music video ever or worst music video ever?

The Price is Right: Week 8 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

Matthew Stafford – 40 pass attempts and 310 pass yards are strong, as are the two touchdowns, but his day could have been so much better if not for the soul-crushing interception he threw from the Seattle four-yard line in the fourth quarter. Grade: B

Marlon Mack – It was definitely Mack Daddy time against Oakland on Sunday. Season highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, targets, rushing share. You name it, he excelled in it yesterday. Behind an offensive line that is now fifth overall in adjusted line yards, Mack shows no signs of slowing down and his completely taken over the rushing game in Indy now that he is healthy. He just needs a nickname, does Mack have a nickname? Grade: A

Raheem Mostert – Despite being labeled as questionable and that his play would be “limited,” Matt Breida gobbled up the majority of the rushing for San Francisco. Mostert got two carries – and they were great – but still not enough for a grade. Grade: Incomplete

Jarvis Landry – Landry is operating like the anti-Adrian Peterson lately – impossible to predict. The targets were still there against the Steelers (12), and he did catch a healthy amount of passes (8), but for only 39 yards!!  Would you believe me if I told you this was Landry’s third lowest yards-per-reception game of his career? Well, you should. Grade: C+

Robert Woods – Josh Reynolds happened. I thought we were past that after last week. Mother Forking Shirt Balls. It certainly wasn’t a bad game with five catches for 70 yards for Woods, but in a projected shootout, we were all hoping for more. One of those Reynolds touchdowns could have gone his way, maybe? Grade: B-

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5, 54)
Another week, another chance to pick on the game’s worst pass defense. Throughout the Bucs’ first six games, they’ve been gashed through the air by elite receivers, slot receivers, tight ends and running backs. Whether all parties get to eat so lavishly on Sunday remains to be seen, but what can be assumed is that there will be a large spread to be munched on for 60 minutes of game time. The obvious attraction here is  A.J. Green ($8,800), who gets moved around the formation enough (18.8 percent out of the slot) for the Bengals to manipulate the Bucs’ defense into favorable matchups. Green is seeing 27 percent of the targets on a pass-heavy attack and should be expected to deliver double-digit FanDuel points at a minimum with a reasonable chance at surpassing 20. He’s not the only Bengal offering profit potential though. While Tyler Boyd ($6,800) has delivered a couple of stinkers in recent weeks, he’s also in a prime spot as the Bengals’ primary slot option (69.2 percent of routes) and owns an 84.4 percent snap share, nearly identical to Green’s 84.6. Finally, TE C.J. Uzomah ($5,400) may not have the production to warrant widespread excitement, but he is basically the sole option the Bengals are willing to use (72.5 percent snap share overall, 93 percent since becoming starter). His appeal comes strictly from the fact that he’s the only show in town and that the Bucs have been victimized by the position on multiple occasions. Vegas expects a high-scoring, competitive matchup, so using multiple options from this Bengals offense is a reasonable strategy. However, if you’re entering multiple lineups, don’t be afraid to get greedy on some of them and try to pinpoint the single piece of the Bengals’ offense who you think gets to chow down on the largest piece of the pie.

Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5, 53.5)
The Chiefs haven’t been on the main slate since Week 5 and have continued to hum offensively, so you know there will be a lot of DFSers itching to hitch their wagons to the weekly fireworks display. They continue to shred defenses through the air, but this has the makings of a Kareem Hunt ($8,100) week. The Broncos allow the 11th most yards per game, and of that yardage, 39.1 percent is gained via the ground (2nd highest on the slate). Hunt had himself a performance at Mile High during a Week 4 win against these same Broncos, rumbling for 165 total yards, a touchdown and 25 FanDuel points — a plateau he’s met or eclipsed in three of the of his last four contests. Hunt isn’t likely to be low-owned, so you’ll need to differentiate your lineups elsewhere, but fading him is also unlikely to end up serving as a piece of this week’s winning formula.

Seahawks at Lions (-2.5, 49)
Week 8’s Seahawks-Lions tilt is a fascinating one from a matchup standpoint. Despite suffering through a rash of off- and in-season losses on the defensive side of the ball, Seattle has continued to make life challenging for opposing pass offenses. Only 63 percent of the yardage they’ve allowed have come through the air, good for fifth fewest on the slate. On the opposite side of the ball, Detroit has allowed the fourth smallest percentage of yardage to come via the pass (61.3). Meanwhile, Vegas is anticipating a competitive and relatively high-scoring contest. Considering each team’s strengths, we’re either going to see a lower scoring game than the Vegas total suggests or we’re going to see a healthy dose of production coming on the ground. Lions RB Kerryon Johnson ($6,900) has only seen 46 percent of the carries on the season (you can thank OC Jim Bob Cooter for that), but that rate climbed to 54 percent in Week 7’s win over the Dolphins, and he parlayed that into 179 total yards and 18.9 FanDuel points. It’s anybody’s guess as to whether we will see that percentage continue to climb, but one trend that we can place some stock into is Johnson scoring at least 12 FanDuel points in three of the last four weeks. No, 12 points isn’t going to catapult your lineups into the green, but Sunday’s matchup sets the stage for him to not only see a healthy share of work, but to produce at an efficient clip with those opportunities. As vexing as Detroit can be with their running back split, Seattle’s backfield hierarchy can be equally as infuriating, but it’s worth exploring nonetheless, particularly considering this matchup. Chris Carson ($6,300) will continue to start, but has only received 43.3 percent of the carries as he shares the load with both Mike Davis ($5,400) and rookie Rashaad Penny ($4,800). Carson appears to be the best bet of the three, but doesn’t come without a low floor. Those are the types of risks necessary throughout a season though if you have your eyes set on high finishes in large tournaments. If you do decide to venture into the murky waters of Seattle’s running back rotation, bank on the guy seeing the heavy side of the platoon.

QUICK HITTERS
If you need a Hail Mary at QB, look at Sam Darnold ($6,700) against a Bears defense allowing 75 percent of their surrendered yardage to come through the air. This is strictly a tournament play as the risk of him scoring single-digits is very real. … We talked about Hunt’s chances of a big performance on Sunday, but if you’re in desperate need of a sleeper, consider Spencer Ware ($4,600). He probably won’t deliver the goods, so don’t go overboard, but in a matchup heavily favoring the Chiefs and their running game, it’s not a stretch to suggest that Ware could handle 10-12 touches. If he can scrape together 10-plus points at near-minimum salary, he’ll be worth the gamble. … 49ers RB Raheem Mostert ($5,600) is another pooch punt option, if you will. With Matt Breida nursing an ankle injury, we could see a little more of Mostert against one of the game’s worst run defense. … Sticking with the same Niners-Cardinals showdown, this could be the best value we see for David Johnson ($7,300) this season. We can only speculate as to what adjustments interim offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will implement, but it should be safe to assume that he’ll be more creative with his franchise player than the ousted Mike McCoy was.

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

There really is only way to eat a burrito, Justin Bieber. You can’t just open up all the foil and bite through the side of that thing like some kind of animal. Have some respect, man.

But when it comes to building DFS lineups, there are myriad ways to cross the cash line. Week eight will be an interesting experiment for the stars and scrubs approach or the more balanced attack. Coming off a week where many of the most popular value plays busted (looking at you Kearse, Goodwin, Snead, and countless others…), owners will reasonably be cautious of dipping down too far into the salary pool. Ownership trends will perhaps favor players with a higher floor, but without the prospect of a monster ceiling. Recency bias can do that to us.

At first glance, it does seem that there will be multiple avenues to successful roster construction in this eighth NFL week. Are you one who will lock in Gurley and his massive upside despite an $11,000 sticker price and then focus on value running backs? A popular strategy this week may also be to prioritize three of the next level of running backs, finding room for a James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Kerryon Johnson. In tournaments, a Rams/Packers game stack or a Mahomes/Kelce stack with value around them should have high percentages of ownership.

Whatever your risk tolerance, you can find a way to accumulate points in week eight. The destination has several roads that can get you there, but the best advice anyone can give is to put yourself in the best position possible to maximize points and value. Don’t be like this guy

Think about the options available in front of this guy. Unless he is an employee of the company that makes this exercise machine and knows the exact retail price, there are literally 998 better answers he could have given than $999. By locking in that bid, he gave himself a .001% chance to win. Did it work out? Yes, just like it worked out for some lucky joker in South Carolina this week in the Mega Millions. Was it the right process? No. In fact, if he believed the machine was less than $1,000 there was literally no worse answer he could have given.

Don’t force yourself into bad decisions. I have caught myself thinking from time to time, “well, I have Gurley, Mahomes, and Thielen. Kelce makes a good play with Mahomes, so maybe I will be ok with C.J. Prosise as my second RB.” Do not do that to yourself.

Let’s find some value for week eight.

Quarterback – Matthew Stafford ($7,300)

Several projection models love Stafford this week and have him slated as the top points per dollar quarterback on the slate. Stafford is priced the same as C.J. Beathard this week, which should tell you all you need to know about whether we can find value in playing him.

If we remove that week one Monday Night Football debacle against the Jets, Stafford has an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, never throwing fewer than two TDs a game.

The matchup, as you may have heard, is not nearly as intimidating as it might have been in years past against Seattle. One of my favorite stats for this week is that Seattle is fifth worst in the league in quarterback hurries per game. Matt Stafford at home in a dome and with a clean pocket is something I want in my life.

Running Back – Raheem Mostert ($5,600)

Last week I posted nothing more than a chart displaying tight end points allowed by the Buccaneers in an effort to persuade you to play David Njoku. Today, I present an equal level of laziness in the form of this chart:

This play hinges on the availability of Matt Breida on Sunday. If Breida misses the game, it will be tremendously tough not to lock in Mostert against a team allowing the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns through seven weeks.

One interesting tidbit I ran across – according to Pro Football Focus, Mostert has the fourth best elusive rating the past three weeks.

Running Back – Marlon Mack ($6,700)

I grew up in the age of

Which then turned over its place in Mack vernacular to “Return of the Mack,” but Kriss Kross will always be the OG. To show my respect, this will be another smash spot for the miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity Mack daddy.

Now, he is listed as the questionable Mack Daddy right now, so all this is for naught if he doesn’t play, but last week’s game should have us Krossing our fingers that he does. In a similarly scripted game against the Bills, Mack saw 37 snaps to just 17 for Nyheim Hines and gobbled up 51.4% of the rushing share while no other player saw more than 16%.

I am getting excited about matching Mack and his 9^th ranked 6.4 yards per touch against the Raiders and their 29^th ranked defense. The Raiders are already in Tank Time and Mack is prepared to capitalize.

Wide Receiver – Jarvis Landry ($6,700)

Some straight facts. Landry’s ranks in the following categories this season:

Red Zone Targets – 6^th in NFL
% Red Zone Target Share – 1^st
Targets per game – 3^rd

Steelers allow 110.9 yards per game to opposing team’s lead wideouts according to Rich Hribar. Landry finally started clicking with Baker Mayfield in the second half of last week’s game (and his price only went up $200). If that continues, Landry could be set to take off.

Wide Receiver – Robert Woods ($7,600)

I am of the mind that you almost have to have a piece of this game in your main lineups. I know, I know –  I should go read what I wrote in the intro. That doesn’t mean I going to jam in Lance Kendricks just to have some exposure, it just means I will prioritize finding a player who fits into a reasonable roster build. For me, that means Gurley, the quarterbacks, Davante Adams, or Robert Woods.

With Cooper Kupp still out this game, and with a slate-high total of 56.5, there is a perfect storm brewing for Woods. A pie with limited options inside it already remains without a key piece, opening up a larger slice for Woods. And the pie grows much larger this week due to the opponent. The Packers are a head-scratching 9.5 point underdog here, but they are going to score. I will be mildly surprised if Aaron Rodgers lets this turn into a blowout.

The Packers are sneaky bad against teams’ number one receivers, ranked 29^th in DVOA. Woods, who has led the Rams in target share the two weeks Cupp has missed is clearly Jared Goff’s favorite weapon in the open field. Kupp and his 11 red zone targets will not be on the field Sunday, so in a shootout I want the most reliable weapon.

Chicago Blackhawks:

DeBrincat($6.4k)-Toews($7k)-Kahun($3.7k)

Minnesota Wild:

Parise($6.6k)-Koivu($5.3k)-Granlund($6.3k)

Boston Bruins:

Pastrnak($8.3k)-Bergeron($8.1k)-Marchand($7.9k)

St.Louis Blues:

Tarasenko($7.3k)-Schenn($6.2k)-Schwartz($5.5k)

Calgary Flames:

Gaudreau($7.9k)-Monahan($7.1k)-Lindholm($5.8k)

Montreal Canadiens:

Drouin($5.6k)-Domi($5.9k)-Lehkonen($4.3k)

Defense Value Plays:

Butcher($4k) VS. NSH

Hagg($3.9k) @ BOS

Pionk($3.9k) @ CHI

Oleksiak($3.8k) @ CGY

Dunn($3.7k) VS. CLS

Twitter Account: @DevinSwisher2

Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

Last night I was doing totally normal people things like looking through historical NBA data and was struck by a few facts looking at the long-term history of the NBA. I put together this quick-and-dirty chart to illustrate what I found:

As you can see on the gray trend line, the pace of play has been on the upswing for about seven or eight years. This is obvious; any casual NBA fan checking out final scores of games could give you that groundbreaking piece of analysis. What has also been clear to anyone watching games is the corresponding rise of three points shots – represented here by the green columns. (The Rockets, in fact, became the first team ever to attempt more three pointers than two point shots in 2017-2018.) There is almost a perfect correlation between pace and three point attempts in that period.

What struck me as odd, however, is the trend on free throw attempts. One would think that all types of scoring would be on the rise with the increased pace of play. Faster games taking less of the shot clock each possession would mean more three pointers, more two pointers, more free throw attempts, etc. Digging into why this would be, I noticed something striking. While total field goal attempts increased 12.3% since 2010-2011, from 81.2 per game to 91.2 per game, three point attempts have increased 76% in that same time – 18.0 per game to 31.6 per game.

Since shooting fouls occur beyond the three-point line about 1% of the time (according to 82games.com), it would make sense that a meteoric rise in threes would result in free throw rates that are the lowest since the NBA introduced the three pointer. The data backs it up: the lowest seven seasons for free throw attempts in NBA history are the last seven season.

So as we consider how pace of play helps our decisions in DFS, we should consider the ramifications that higher pace and a three point revolution have on statistics and make sure we are not just targeting the right teams, but also the right type of players who can take advantage. Today’s pacesetters will be a sampling of those types of players.

(Pace stats will be for last season until four weeks of data are accumulated)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns

O/U – 236.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Lakers – 3rd
Suns – 2^nd

Kyle Kuzma ($7,200) – The pickings are a little slim at power forward tonight, so why not lock in a player who has presently hit the trifecta of opportunity, usage, and matchup. With Brandon Ingram still suspended, Kuzma saw an increase in his minutes to 45 (in an overtime loss), but also saw his usage%, effective field goal percentage skyrocket despite the heavy minutes. This game is going to be a track meet tonight, and for however long the Suns choose to stick needles in their eyes playing Ryan Anderson on defense, Kuzma should dominate.

T.J. Warren ($5,700) – Of all bench players on the main slate on Wednesday, Warren has the second highest true usage (26.6%) and fantasy points per game (31.3). He has accomplished this while only averaging 23 minutes per game – less than the likes of DeAndre’ Bembry, Jared Dudley, and Damyean Dotson. Warren may not be a starter, but he is certainly a finisher, and the likes of Anderson and Trevor Ariza may not be long for this game.

Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

O/U – 234
’17-’18 Pace:
Mavericks – 26^th
Hawks – 8^th

Wesley Matthews ($5,400) – Matthews is one of those boring veteran players that you think about from time to time and remember “oh yeah, he still is in the league.” Tonight, however, should be an opportunity for him to stand out in a truly fast-paced game – especially at his low price. Matthews is unexcitedly middle of the pack for usage among shooting guards, but he draws the nuts defensive matchup against the Hawks, ranked 25^th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards. Wes hasn’t played less than 31 minutes this season and is top six in three pointers attempted per game (and hitting 34.5%). Circling back to the data from the introduction to this piece, this means it could be a blow up game for him.

Taurean Prince ($7,200) – I fell in love with Prince last year after the Hawks committed to increasing his minutes when they entered The Tank Zone. His ability to fill up the box score – especially with steals – is just so appealing. The point barrage has continued this season as he is fourth among main slate small forwards in fantasy points per minute, behind three guys you might have heard of (Butler, Durant, King James). He also checks in at 4^th among SF with a 25.6% true usage rate, all while being the third lowest SF minutes per game. In a game with a strong total and a spread of only one point, expect Prince’s minutes to easily reach a season-high.

Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls

O/U – 230.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Hornets – 11^th
Bulls – 10^th

Kemba Walker ($8,400) – Yes, he is the most expensive player in this game, $700 more than the player discussed below, but Walker’s ceiling is unlimited in this game. Walker’s game low this season is 35.9 Fanduel points, reached in only 26 minutes in a blowout. Expanding further, KW is a top-five point guard in minutes, fantasy points per game, usage and fantasy points per minute – at a price equal to Kyle Lowry. The icing on the cake is his defensive matchup. Walker will face Cameron Payne with Kris Dunn out of the Bulls’ lineup. Payne is ranked 146^th among guards for defensive win shares in the young season and is allowing an eye-bleeding 122 points per 100 possessions.

Zach LaVine ($7,700) – With Kris Dunn out for an extended period of time, the Bull’s offense should flow through LaVine. In the two games where Dunn was inactive to start the year, LaVine’s usage percentage was at almost 32%, a number that would have been top five in the NBA last year. With such a small sample, we have to hold out hope that the trend will continue, but with the opportunity for playing time in front of him, we can count on LaVine to seize control. LaVine is second among all shooting guards in fantasy points per game tonight, and with only Jeremy Lamb in his way, the scoring explosion should continue.

Florida Panthers:

Dadonov($6.5k)-Barkov($7.3k)-Bjugstad($5k)

Columbus Blue Jackets:

Panarin($7.8k)-Dubois($5.5k)-Atkinson($7.1k)

Boston Bruins:

Marchand($7.9k)-Bergeron($8k)-Pastrnak($8.2k)

Dallas Stars:

Benn($8k)-Seguin($7.9k)-Radulov($6.7k)

Radulov might not play tonight. He is questionable, check my Twitter for an update later on in the day

Defense Value Plays:

Lindholm($4.6k) ANA @ CHI

Ekholm($4.5k) NSH vs. SJ

Petry($4.3k) MTL vs. CGY

Pionk($3.9k) NYR vs. FLA

Nutivaara($3.7k) CLS vs. ARI

Twitter account:@DevinSwisher2

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

FD-Guru had a day for the ages yesterday. A record of 12-0 across all slates is one of the most amazing runs I have seen in DFS. If you are not in on these lineups, you should be running as fast as you can to get access to this streak.

Not all of us, however, were so lucky.

Yesterday was not a fun football day for one of my lineups. For the first time in the 2018 NFL season, I did not turn a profit. I can’t say there was anything different about my research or preparation. There were no unusual distractions or schedules that threw me off my game. The only variable that I can point to that seemed different in week 7 from other weeks this season was a mental one. Confidence.

My confidence was sky-high by the time lock hit on Sunday afternoon. The main cash lineup I created earlier in the week held until the late-week news about the Carlos Hyde trade. That moved me off Tarik Cohen (whom I touted in my piece last week) and onto Nick Chubb. Chubb didn’t end up as a bad play, with high volume, more than 60 yards and a touchdown, but that swap ended up being mistake number five in a lineup that quickly sent my irrational confidence spiraling into despair.

Mistake number one was paying (extremely) down for quarterback and starting C.J. Beathard. Scouring past box scores and trying to fit prior results into a current narrative is a recipe for failure. Beathard had some marginal success recently but even against a Rams defense that wasn’t playing up to par in the secondary, their defensive line just dominated during the game. Seven sacks and multiple pressures later, Beathard had nowhere to go except short-to-intermediate passes to George Kittle. Beathard has shown some flashes in past games but at the end of the day, he is a backup for a reason. Backups against the Rams defense are usually

The overreaching confidence in Beathard also funneled Marquise Goodwin into my lineup at a low price which then led me to believe I had a strong feel for cheap wide receiver plays. The result of that stupidity was locking in Jermaine Kearse and his 0.0 points into all lineups. If you’re not doing the math at home, that’s about 11 points across three lineup slots.

But not to fear. All of those cheap players offered me the opportunity to plug in Todd Gurley (of course, who didn’t?), Adam Thielen (god of all wide receivers), and Ezekiel Elliott. I had hope.

SHUT UP, Zeke. You did not feast. These lineup debacles plus the swap out of Cohen (who outscored Chubb by 4.3) left me dead on arrival.

Confidence is a scary thing. Believing that you will be able to force a square peg into a round hole because you have done it before is DFS Psychology 101. But just as we can’t let confidence play a role in lineup decision-making, neither can we with doubt. We press on and sharpen our process and get it right the next week.

In a weird and upside-down week 7, what performances can we leave or take?

Deshaun Watson – 139 Passing Yards/1 TD, 13 Rushing Yards

There were many qualifiers as to why Watson was not a cash lineup play this week, but rather a stronger tournament option.

1. On the road
2. Against the Jaguars
3. Punctured lung (which meant he had ride a bus for 12 hours to the game instead of fly)
4. Cracked rib
5. Offensive line plays Red Rover instead of blocking people

One of Watson’s otherworldly performances was not necessarily anticipated in this spot, but we were hoping for more passing yards than the BACKUP Jaguars quarterback. The Texans learned early in the game that they had something going with Lamar Miller and rode #MillerTime to his first 100-yard game in two years plus a rushing touchdown. The touches and yards were Miller’s most of the season and it led to his first rushing TD as well.

Clearly the game plan was to limit’s Watson’s exposure to a pass rush and tackles while on the run. His 24 attempts were Watson’s lowest of the season. The low number combined with the 50% completion percentage (lowest of his career) scream to me that the Texans are just trying to keep Watson protected and healthy until the week 10 bye. Better games are ahead against the Colts, Browns, and Eagles still on the schedule.

Verdict – Leave It

Kerryon Johnson – 19 Rushes/158 Rushing Yards, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/21 Receiving Yards

Tough one to gauge here because the results have to be taken with a Theo Riddick-sized grain of salt. Johnson easily had season highs in snap %, rushing share, rushing attempts, rushing yards, and target share. His 8.3 yards per carry also can’t be dismissed as noisy – there were multiple long runs on the afternoon. The rub on Johnson all year is the Lions’ refusal to play him on third down passing situations and near the goal line.

That narrative changed somewhat yesterday, and only partially due to Riddick’s absence. While Johnson did get more run on third downs by default (Ameer Abdullah only played seven snaps), he touched the ball six times in the red zone on Sunday. To put that in perspective, he had only received five red zone touches in the first six weeks. He did not convert his closest carries to the goal line while LeGarrette Blount did, but the opportunity increased substantially. Based on his past two games, Johnson is really forcing the Lions’ hand where they will have to commit more to his game. Even when Riddick comes back the Lions have no choice but to continue to carry on with Kerryon.

Verdict –

Marlon Mack – 19 Rushes/126 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/22 Receiving Yards/1 TD

Your main slate running back performance of the day, friends. Those who put Mack in counting on an increased snap share and some clock-killing time were richly rewarded. In just three games this season, Mack’s raw snap count has increased significantly: 18-24-37. Snap percentage: 29.5-34.8-56.1. The waiver wire darling from several weeks ago, Nyheim Hines’ snap count looks like this over the past four weeks: 62-56-30-17. He only saw the field for 25.8% of the snaps on Sunday in what quickly became a Colts runaway.

Since he returned from injury, Mack has averaged 6.9 yards per carry against the Jets and Bills, two teams in the top half of NFL run defenses, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. If he is able to sustain the volume and efficiency against some of the soft matchups ahead on his schedule such as Oakland, Tennessee (twice), and the New York Giants, we could be looking at a top-15 running back the rest of the way, particularly as Andrew Luck and his weapons begin to get healthy.

Verdict – Take It

Michael Gallup – 5 targets/3 Receptions/81 Receiving Yards/1 TD

If you haven’t watched the move Michael Gallup put on the defender on his 49-yard touchdown catch, please pause and go find it. I mean, the defender looks like he is stuck to the grass after Gallup gives him the double move. However, I just don’t know if something like that is sustainable or predictive. The defender looked like he didn’t even belong in the NFL on that play, so a more competent player might have defended that well and prevented the score. I can’t know for sure, but the box score looks like two catches for 32 yards without the play, so let’s pump the brakes just a little.

The opportunity from the past two weeks is certainly encouraging. Gallup has been on the field for 81% and 85% of the snaps for the Cowboys, but the box scores still show no more than three catches in a game, a ceiling of 45 yards before yesterday, and only an 18.6% share of the team’s air yards on the season. I personally need to see Gallup featured more before I buy in.

Verdict – Leave It

The Price is Right: Week 7 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

C.J. Beathard – See above. Throw up in my mouth. Grade: D-

Tarik Cohen – “Get the ball to Cohen” may be what’s written on the locker room whiteboard these days for the Bears. He is the game plan now. This is five straight weeks his snap count has increased and it looks like Jordan Howard is now a short-yardage, sometimes-goal-line guy. Grade: A

Frank Gore – The 10 rushes against the Lions certainly should have produced more than 29 yards based on the struggles we laid out last week Detroit has had stopping the run. The benefactor of those struggles, it turns out, was Kenyan Drake who despite only rushing six times, turned one of them into a 54-yard touchdown. Not the outcome that was expected, but Gore was mostly shut out of the fun. Grade: C-

Willie Snead – Joe Flacco certainly spent time trying to feed Snead the ball, as he threw seven passes up his way. Snead was only able to come down with three of them for 23 yards, adding one carry for 13 yards. So much for the #RevengeGame story-line. John Brown ended up being the play, but he – like Gallup – benefited from an awful blown defensive assignment, which turned his good day into a monster day with the late 14-yard touchdown. And RIP to Justin Tucker’s PAT streak. Grade: C+

David Njoku – He scored a touchdown because it was an inevitability. Njoku also was targeted six times, which has been a consistent theme lately with Baker Mayfield under center – he has averaged nine targets a game over the past four weeks. Playing Tampa Bay, Njoku was a guaranteed 10 points in your lineup. Grade: A

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Browns at Buccaneers (-3.5, 51)
The defensive woes of the Bucs have been well-documented, and with injuries to key members of their defensive line, the struggles will likely continue. That puts the Browns — and their top three pass-catchers in particular — in a position to take advantage. The target shares of their top three options are as follows:

Jarvis Landry ($6,500) – 28.5%
Antonio Callaway ($4800) – 17.0%
David Njoku ($5700) – 19.5%

Among the teams on this week’s main slate, the Bucs see the fifth-lowest percentage of run plays against them, surrendering only 3.8 YPC. More on this in a bit, but first let’s focus on the Browns’ short-handed passing attack, which will provide their top three options with an uptick in chances. Considering the prices, the usage, the matchup and Vegas’ expectations of a high-scoring competitive affair, DFSers shouldn’t be afraid to run multiple pieces from the Browns passing attack into lineups. That comes with the caveat that Callaway remains a high-risk/high-reward play, but he continues to receive targets (32 over last four games) and leads the team in air yards from Week 2 on.

Generally speaking, attacking the Bucs on the ground hasn’t been the most effective option to move the ball. The absence of two linemen could open up more holes for the Browns this week though. Now that he’s the starting running back in Cleveland, Nick Chubb ($4,800) could be this week’s most popular running back play. Nobody will fault you for having plenty of Chubb shares, but don’t forget about Duke Johnson ($5,100), who led the backfield in snaps in a negative game script last week. The Bucs have been burned by backs in the passing game as well, making Johnson an affordable GPP pivot worth considering.

Saints at Ravens (-2.5, 49.5)
Sunday’s Saints-Ravens clash pits the top-scoring offense vs. the top-scoring defense, respectively, and figures to see plenty of attempts and yardage through the air as both offenses rely heavily on the passing game. Running out Drew Brees ($8,600) and/or Michael Thomas ($8,600) is a fine contrarian strategy as many will shy away from challenging Baltimore’s stingy defense, but there may be more value in the Ravens’ receiving corps. Let’s check out the target shares and yards-per-reception:

Michael Crabtree ($6,600) – 20.9%, 11.4
John Brown ($6,500) – 17.9%, 20.2
Willie Snead ($5,400) – 16.4%, 10.4

In a matchup that has sneaky shootout potential, there are a number of options in this game — on both sides — who could provide value. However, for tournaments, Brown appears to be a great choice. Not only is he seeing the second-highest target volume on the team, but he’s seeing the most air yards and a ridiculous YPC. If there’s an explosion brewing in this matchup, Brown has as good of a chance as anyone to deliver it.

Lions (-3, 46.5) at Dolphins
The good news here is that the Lions are among the most porous run defenses in the league. Of all their yardage surrendered, 39.6 percent has come via the ground, which is tops among main slate defenses. Additionally, opponents have averaged 5.3 yards per carry against them. The bad news is we don’t have a clear idea of which Dolphins running back will have the best shot at exploiting this weakness. Kenyan Drake ($6,300) has a sizeable lead over Frank Gore ($5,600) in snap percentage this season (62.5 vs. 38.9), but trails the veteran runner 62 to 52 in carries and has received the small piece of the pie in each of the last two weeks. It should be noted that Drake has out-targeted Gore 31 to 5 and out-caught him 21 to 4. With that said, this still presents a tough choice if you decide to take advantage of Detroit’s run defense. It’s not a spot to lean on heavily throughout your DFS portfolio, but if you need a low-priced — and low-owned — option that allows you to squeeze in an extra stud elsewhere, both Drake and Gore deserve some consideration.

QUICK HITTERS
The Eagles (-4.5, 44.5) continue to surrender most of their yardage through the air while limiting non-Saquon Barkley running backs to 3.4 yards per carry. While the Panthers have a nice running back of their own, he shouldn’t be expected to have the same type of impact. Instead, Carolina may need to take to the air for big plays. In the two games since the Panthers’ Week 4 bye, Devin Funchess ($6,400) leads the team in target share, air yards and is second in average depth of target. … What the Patriots (-3, 49) decide to do week-to-week is anyone’s guess, but they face off against the Bears, another team that allows a disproportionate amount of yardage via the pass. Tom Brady ($8,700) is rarely a bad bet to produce, but his price will force sacrifices elsewhere. On the plus side, you’re probably looking at modest ownership percentages if you’re aiming to pay up at the position. Also of note is that Bears all-world linebacker Khalil Mack is questionable with an ankle injury. … Kirk Cousins ($8,000) is another option under center if you want to create uniqueness through the quarterback position. The Vikings finally showed some life on the ground against the Cardinals in Week 6, but running over the league’s worst run defense hardly engenders enthusiasm going into this week’s matchup against a solid Jets defense — especially with Dalvin Cook ruled out again. Look for Cousins and Co. to get back to their bread and butter and chuck the rock around as 3.5-point road favorites.

This week’s edition of The Price is Right is brought to you by hindsight bias. The lesser-known cousin of recency bias, hindsight bias is when our brain tells us that the outcome of certain events was predictable only after information becomes available after the event. I few weeks ago, I fell victim to this. I root for the Houston Texans and in week two, they traveled to play the Titans. The day before the game, it was announced that Marcus Mariota would not play and that Blaine Gabbert would be the starting QB. This news got me excited enough to, shall we say, make a financial investment in the game and the prospect of the Texans covering the three-point spread. Well, a few hours later, the Texans had been Gabberted into a three-point loss.

I spent the next day mentally uncovering all the reasons why it should have been clear that the Texans would lose that game. Their ultra-penetrable offensive line too frequently leaves Deshaun Watson exposed. The Titans’ new coach, Mike Vrabel, spent the last several years with the Texans and knows the playbook. The Titans’ young, speedy receivers were mismatches for the slow, aging secondary of the Texans.

In reality, the available evidence led me to the right decision. Blaine Gabbert has enough game film that we know who he is. The Texans pass rush is back to its dominant form. There was a reason the Texans were favored, even on the road.

Hindsight bias and recency bias are EVERYWHERE and are prominent factors in all aspects of our lives. But is there, you may ask, a connection to The Price is Right with hindsight bias? Brothers and sisters, of course there is.

On The Price is Right, there is a game called Punch-A-Bunch. Essentially, there is a board with slots filled with cards that have dollar amounts on them. The contestant can win punches on the board and after each card is pulled, they must determine if they want to keep the cash amount on the card or press their luck with the next one. A typical Punch-A-Bunch board looks like this:

Five rows, 10 columns, 50 total spaces that can be punched. You can see beneath the board the breakdown of the odds of winning each amount. Chances are slim that you will win some of the big cash, so contestants will almost always stop when they reach something that gets into the four figures. So with the stage set, take a look at this jamoke:

OK. I mean, where to start? A contestant has a 5/50 – 10% – chance of winning between 5K and 25K (and this guy may have had a max of 10K since it was clearly from several years ago). Somehow, even with those slim odds, he pulls $5,000 on this first card. Way to go, leather Kangol hat guy.

Now if you were to find this guy and ask him if he feels like he made the right decision in throwing that card out and moving on, I am sure he would say he did. But he would certainly not have rationality on his side. He actually decreased his chances of winning at least $5,000 by 20% when he decided not to take it. He already found one of the cards out of 50 spots, which had a 10% chance of happening. Now, he has four cards left of at least $5,000 with 49 cards remaining. His odds are now 8% that he will find another one of equal value and only a 4% chance of finding one of greater value. And he does. I hope he bought some lottery tickets with that cash.

In the end the results worked out for him despite the bad process. How many times can we think back to when we have been on opposing sides of variance? Some decisions work out when they shouldn’t (such as when I played Tevin Coleman in my week six cash lineup – he scored!) and some don’t when they should (like when I played the Bears DST – they sucked!). Trust the process. Trust the Process.

Crap. Except forget about two of those guys.

Each of our players highlighted this week will have some element of hindsight attached to them. We must decipher how we view past performances, and not let hindsight cloud our judgment.

Quarterback – C.J. Beathard ($6,400)

Depending on how you view Derek Anderson (I view him like I view these kids who make a fortune opening up toys on Youtube videos), there is not a starting QB cheaper on the main slate than Beathard. Not Osweiler, not Bortles, not Sam Darnold. On the other hand, Beathard is top 12 in QB points over the past two weeks, scoring more than Rivers, Bortles, Cousins, Dalton, and others. Beathard has multiple passing touchdowns in each of the past three weeks and has even averaged over 15 rushing yards during that time. How do we balance these opposing forces?

The matchup in week seven, I believe, can help tip the scales. The Los Angeles Rams have given up the following QB lines the past three weeks:

Case Keenum – 322 yards, 2 TDs
Russell Wilson – 198 yards, 3 TDs
Kirk Cousins – 422 Yards, 3 TDs

They are clearly struggling to contain the pass while missing Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. In fact, Football Outsiders has them pegged as only the 14^th strongest pass defense by DVOA, a very average number. As a 9.5-point underdog, game flow will dictate the 49ers to pass. Look for George Kittle and Marquise Goodwin to draw significant targets.

Running Back – Tarik Cohen ($6,600)

The 49.5 total in this Bears/Patriots matchup is the fourth highest on the slate and a game in which we should have some exposure. Highlighted in my Take It or Leave It column on October 15, Cohen’s usage and value of touches are on the way up. To recap, Cohen’s snaps, targets, and receptions have risen four straight weeks, and his target market share has been at least 30% the past two games. With a team total projected over 23 points, the Bears must deploy their most lethal weapons to go head to head with the Patriots.

The matchup, on paper and in the eye test, don’t seem terribly daunting either. The Patriots give up the fifth most passing yards to running backs in 2018 at over 60 per game. Combined with the fact that the Bears have risen up to #8 on Pro Football Focus’ offensive line rankings and the makings of a perfect storm of open space may present itself for the much more dynamic Bears’ running back.

Running Back – Frank Gore ($5,600)

Do you have any idea what kind of creepy shit you get when do a Google image search for “Gore”? There’s something wrong with you people. I implore you to add “Frank” to your search if you are looking for the Dolphins’ 223-year old running back.

This play is purely about matchup for me and how opportunistic it might be for FRANK Gore. Detroit is rated presently as the 27^th worst run defense by Football Outsiders. They have, in fact, given up the 4^th most Fanduel points per game to running backs through the first six weeks, and the three teams that have given up more (Chiefs, Cardinals, and Falcons) are not on the main slate.

Gore’s usage appears solid, despite Miami unleashing Drake more in the passing game. In the last four weeks, Gore has seen his carries increase in each contest and he finally crossed the 100-yard threshold in week six. He also is still averaging 4.9 yards per carry and will continue to do so until the end of time.

Wide Receiver – Willie Snead ($5,400)

The Saints against #1 wide receivers when Marshon Lattimore plays? Very good. Against all other receivers whether on the outside or in the slot? Not so good. In fact, I would like to highlight (or rather lowlight) some pertinent ratings for Ken Crawley, the Saints defensive back who will likely cover Snead in the slot on Sunday. On Crawley’s assignments:

Passer Rating Allowed – 158.3 – #76 at his position
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Snap – 0.62 – #73
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target – 2.9 – #74
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game – 18.3 – #75
(all from Player Profiler)

Snead saw season highs in targets, receptions, average depth of target, and target share in week six. For as good as he was, those numbers all have room for improvement this week in a prime matchup.

Tight End – David Njoku ($5,700)

Let’s not get cute and overthink this. I will give you one chart.

Tampa Bay gives up more than two more Fanduel points per game to tights ends than any other team. Giddy up.