Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to help you take your lineup construction to the next level. Let’s jump in.
Vikings at Eagles (-3, 46)
With six matchups on the main slate drawing a higher Vegas total than the Vikings-Eagles tilt, DFSers may be able to secure some explosive, yet low-owned, production. The Eagles, while ranked as a top 10 defense in DVOA, have been so good against the run that teams are forced to lean on their passing attack in order to move the ball against them. Not only are the Eagles seeing the highest percentage of pass attempts against them (64.8) in the NFL, but of all the yardage they’ve surrendered, nearly 81 percent have come via the air, also the most in the NFL. Enter QB Kirk Cousins ($7700), who leads the most pass-heavy attack on this week’s slate. Passing yardage has accounted for 83.9 percent of the Vikings’ total offensive output thus far, and with their run game showing no immediate signs of kicking into high gear, they should continue to lean on Cousins’ right arm. WRs Adam Thielen ($8300) and Stefon Diggs ($8200) own 29.9 and 23.5 percent target shares, respectively, and both figure to be busy on Sunday afternoon. Pairing one or both with Cousins has the look of a profitable stack. If you want to toss a Hail Mary, WR Laquon Treadwell ($4800) has averaged a 65.8 percent offensive snaps share per game, peaking at 88 percent in Week 3, and has seen six or more targets twice. He’s purely a tournament gamble, but one who could allow you to squeeze additional studs into your lineups.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 58)
With the highest Vegas total on the board in Week 5, prominent members of both the Falcons and Steelers figure to be among the chalkiest choices on the slate. Fading this matchup might be tough to stomach for many DFSers, and that’s okay, but we need to consider some lower-owned pieces in this presumptive track meet if we’re going to gain some leverage over larger tournament fields. Those looking for a more under-the-radar piece can start with TE Vance McDonald ($4600), who has averaged five targets and an 80 percent catch rate in his three games while increasing his offensive snap percentage to 63 percent in Week 4. The middle of Atlanta’s defense is battered and they’ve surrendered 6-88 and 5-46-1 lines over their past two games. On the other sideline, WR Mohamed Sanu ($5600) is likely to be overshadowed by his aforementioned running mates and potentially overlooked by those attacking this high-powered showdown, but he is second on the team with a 17.3 percent target share. You can’t always be afraid of chalk plays in DFS, but hitting on a tertiary option in this type of matchup can often yield profitable results.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (51, PK)
We’ve touched on two passing matchups to exploit, and now it’s time to highlight a promising running back option. Green Bay’s ground game often takes a backseat to their weekly aerial assault, and this year’s numbers paint a similar picture as the Packers rely on their rushing attack for less than 27.5 percent of their offensive yardage. That’s not likely to drastically change anytime soon, but this week’s matchup presents a scenario where one can reasonably expect an uptick in ground production. Not only are the Packers home to a banged up receiving corps, but the Lions own one of the league’s worst run defenses, surrendering 5.3 yards per carry and yielding 47.9 percent of their overall yardage through the run game. While RB Aaron Jones ($6100) doesn’t qualify as a cash play, he has the type of potential to pay dividends in tournaments. After missing the season’s first two games due to suspension, Jones handled a 25 percent snap rate with seven touches in Week 1 and a 36 percent snap rate with 12 touches in Week 2. Sunday’s matchup should provide Jones with an opportunity — at low ownership — to command the lion’s share of backfield work in a high-scoring affair. In the two games he saw 20-plus touches last season, Jones delivered 126 total yards with a score and 134 total yards with a score.
BONUS: Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (52.5, -6.5)
Those looking for exposure to Monday Night Football’s action should be treated to an exciting affair as the ‘Skins meet the Saints in the Big Easy. The Saints’ stout work against opposing rushing attacks suggests the Redskins, who have leaned heavily on their own run game this season, will need to find other avenues to advance up and down the field. It shouldn’t be a surprise that in the two matchups the Redskins won handily, they enjoyed success on the ground. However, in their 21-9 loss in Week 2, they were forced into a pass-heavy approach, with RB Chris Thompson ($6100) reeling in 13 of 14 targets for 92 yards. Thompson owns a team-high 24.7 percent target share, followed by TE Jordan Reed ($6200) at 21.5 percent. If the Redskins find themselves playing from behind — as Vegas believes they will — with their run game stuck in neutral, they won’t have any choice but to take to the air, benefitting their top pass-catching options in the process.