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DFS Week 6: Main Slate Matchups to Exploit

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to help you take your lineup construction to the next level. Let’s jump in.

Buccaneers at Falcons (-3, 57)
With the highest Vegas total on the main slate, Sunday’s Bucs-Falcons tilt is going to be very popular in both cash games and tournaments. Everyone will want a piece of this game and understandably so, but let’s look at the target shares to see if there’s an opportunity to zig while everyone else zags:

Mike Evans ($8,000) – 26.1%
DeSean Jackson ($6,500) – 14.7%
Chris Godwin ($5,900) – 14.7%
O.J. Howard ($5,500) – 11.4%
Cameron Brate ($4,500) – 6.7%

Julio Jones ($8,500) – 29.8%
Mohamed Sanu ($5,800) – 16.8%
Calvin Ridley ($6,700) – 14.1%
Austin Hooper ($5,600) – 14.6%

Evans and Jones project to have the highest ownership while Brate could join them pending the availability of Howard. Depending on where you are in your DFS development, the term “chalk” may seem like a dirty word. If you want to roster Evans and Jones in a lineup, go for it. There’s no need to be afraid of chalk plays if you differentiate your lineups elsewhere. Alternatively, you can reap the benefits of this presumptive shootout by rostering/stacking the secondary pieces who could chew off a large chunk of the scoring opportunities for themselves. Don’t be afraid to explore a Jackson-Ridley game stack as they both possess the big play ability and high ceiling we want in our tournament lineups. If you’re feeling particularly adventurous, Ronald Jones ($5,600) won’t be heavily owned, and if he’s able to come out of the bye week with a better grasp of his responsibilities, he could be profitable. Again, that’s certainly a high-risk maneuver, but it underscores the overall point when looking at ways to attack a potentially explosive matchup: don’t be afraid to get creative in order to build a unique lineup.

Jaguars (-3, 40.5) at Cowboys
Opportunity is king. And opportunity is what Ezekiel Elliott ($8,100) receives at a staggering rate — he has received a hand-off or target on 42 percent of the 290 plays the Cowboys have run this season. The Cowboys’ embarrassing receiving corps coupled with the Jaguars’ top-ranked pass defense suggests Elliott will see as much opportunity as he can handle, especially if the game remains as close as Vegas believes it will. While not exactly porous against the run either, Jacksonville does surrender 101.2 yards per game on the ground (14th fewest), so there figures to be a little more breathing room for Dallas’ rushing attack. This looks like an ugly matchup for the Cowboys, but Elliott’s expected opportunity combined with relatively low ownership provide DFSers with a potentially profitable pivot from more popular backs in a similar price range.

Seahawks (-2.5, 48.5) at Raiders
The Seahawks and Raiders cross the pond for the season’s first trip to London, and Vegas has painted an encouraging picture of a closely contested and fairly high-scoring showcase — a high-scoring showcase that could see both teams’ featured runners enjoy success. Rushing accounts for 38.7 percent of Seattle’s yardage gained and 31.4 percent of Oakland’s yardage allowed, so the Seahawks’ Chris Carson ($6,400) and his 17.5 touches per game (27 per game over last two weeks) finds himself in a promising game script. On the other side of the coin, Marshawn Lynch ($6,500) and his 17.8 touches per game may find some running room as well. Oakland prefers an aerial attack as opposed to a ground and pound approach, but Seattle has managed to provide more resistance through the air thus far in the season, creating a funnel opportunity for the Raiders and Lynch to exploit. As long as this game remains competitive, neither offense will be forced to abandon the run, allowing Carson and Lynch to take advantage of their opponent’s 4.9 and 4.7 yards per carry allowed, respectively.

QUICK HITTERS
The Chicago Bears (-3.5, 44.5) have been particularly stout against the run, allowing only 3.4 YPC over four games, three of which held a neutral game script throughout much of the contest. That suggests the Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill ($6,600) may have to rely on their passing game to move the ball. He’s a cheap and overlooked alternative to the popular options this week, but make sure you keep tabs on his shoulder ahead of kickoff as he’s currently listed as questionable. … If you’re looking for a “free square” this week, Antonio Callaway ($4,900) offers some promise. The Browns naturally want to protect their rookie quarterback with a heavy reliance on the run, but passing yardage has accounted for 73.8 percent of the total output allowed by the Chargers. While Callaway is only third on the team with a 15.4 percent target share, he is second on the team in air yards and first in average depth of target (min. 10 targets). He would strictly be a tournament play as you’re chasing a home run — or two — but he’s getting the playing time (63.2 snap percentage overall) and receiving “big play” targets.

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