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DFS Week 8: Main Slate Matchups to Exploit

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5, 54)
Another week, another chance to pick on the game’s worst pass defense. Throughout the Bucs’ first six games, they’ve been gashed through the air by elite receivers, slot receivers, tight ends and running backs. Whether all parties get to eat so lavishly on Sunday remains to be seen, but what can be assumed is that there will be a large spread to be munched on for 60 minutes of game time. The obvious attraction here is  A.J. Green ($8,800), who gets moved around the formation enough (18.8 percent out of the slot) for the Bengals to manipulate the Bucs’ defense into favorable matchups. Green is seeing 27 percent of the targets on a pass-heavy attack and should be expected to deliver double-digit FanDuel points at a minimum with a reasonable chance at surpassing 20. He’s not the only Bengal offering profit potential though. While Tyler Boyd ($6,800) has delivered a couple of stinkers in recent weeks, he’s also in a prime spot as the Bengals’ primary slot option (69.2 percent of routes) and owns an 84.4 percent snap share, nearly identical to Green’s 84.6. Finally, TE C.J. Uzomah ($5,400) may not have the production to warrant widespread excitement, but he is basically the sole option the Bengals are willing to use (72.5 percent snap share overall, 93 percent since becoming starter). His appeal comes strictly from the fact that he’s the only show in town and that the Bucs have been victimized by the position on multiple occasions. Vegas expects a high-scoring, competitive matchup, so using multiple options from this Bengals offense is a reasonable strategy. However, if you’re entering multiple lineups, don’t be afraid to get greedy on some of them and try to pinpoint the single piece of the Bengals’ offense who you think gets to chow down on the largest piece of the pie.

Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5, 53.5)
The Chiefs haven’t been on the main slate since Week 5 and have continued to hum offensively, so you know there will be a lot of DFSers itching to hitch their wagons to the weekly fireworks display. They continue to shred defenses through the air, but this has the makings of a Kareem Hunt ($8,100) week. The Broncos allow the 11th most yards per game, and of that yardage, 39.1 percent is gained via the ground (2nd highest on the slate). Hunt had himself a performance at Mile High during a Week 4 win against these same Broncos, rumbling for 165 total yards, a touchdown and 25 FanDuel points — a plateau he’s met or eclipsed in three of the of his last four contests. Hunt isn’t likely to be low-owned, so you’ll need to differentiate your lineups elsewhere, but fading him is also unlikely to end up serving as a piece of this week’s winning formula.

Seahawks at Lions (-2.5, 49)
Week 8’s Seahawks-Lions tilt is a fascinating one from a matchup standpoint. Despite suffering through a rash of off- and in-season losses on the defensive side of the ball, Seattle has continued to make life challenging for opposing pass offenses. Only 63 percent of the yardage they’ve allowed have come through the air, good for fifth fewest on the slate. On the opposite side of the ball, Detroit has allowed the fourth smallest percentage of yardage to come via the pass (61.3). Meanwhile, Vegas is anticipating a competitive and relatively high-scoring contest. Considering each team’s strengths, we’re either going to see a lower scoring game than the Vegas total suggests or we’re going to see a healthy dose of production coming on the ground. Lions RB Kerryon Johnson ($6,900) has only seen 46 percent of the carries on the season (you can thank OC Jim Bob Cooter for that), but that rate climbed to 54 percent in Week 7’s win over the Dolphins, and he parlayed that into 179 total yards and 18.9 FanDuel points. It’s anybody’s guess as to whether we will see that percentage continue to climb, but one trend that we can place some stock into is Johnson scoring at least 12 FanDuel points in three of the last four weeks. No, 12 points isn’t going to catapult your lineups into the green, but Sunday’s matchup sets the stage for him to not only see a healthy share of work, but to produce at an efficient clip with those opportunities. As vexing as Detroit can be with their running back split, Seattle’s backfield hierarchy can be equally as infuriating, but it’s worth exploring nonetheless, particularly considering this matchup. Chris Carson ($6,300) will continue to start, but has only received 43.3 percent of the carries as he shares the load with both Mike Davis ($5,400) and rookie Rashaad Penny ($4,800). Carson appears to be the best bet of the three, but doesn’t come without a low floor. Those are the types of risks necessary throughout a season though if you have your eyes set on high finishes in large tournaments. If you do decide to venture into the murky waters of Seattle’s running back rotation, bank on the guy seeing the heavy side of the platoon.

QUICK HITTERS
If you need a Hail Mary at QB, look at Sam Darnold ($6,700) against a Bears defense allowing 75 percent of their surrendered yardage to come through the air. This is strictly a tournament play as the risk of him scoring single-digits is very real. … We talked about Hunt’s chances of a big performance on Sunday, but if you’re in desperate need of a sleeper, consider Spencer Ware ($4,600). He probably won’t deliver the goods, so don’t go overboard, but in a matchup heavily favoring the Chiefs and their running game, it’s not a stretch to suggest that Ware could handle 10-12 touches. If he can scrape together 10-plus points at near-minimum salary, he’ll be worth the gamble. … 49ers RB Raheem Mostert ($5,600) is another pooch punt option, if you will. With Matt Breida nursing an ankle injury, we could see a little more of Mostert against one of the game’s worst run defense. … Sticking with the same Niners-Cardinals showdown, this could be the best value we see for David Johnson ($7,300) this season. We can only speculate as to what adjustments interim offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will implement, but it should be safe to assume that he’ll be more creative with his franchise player than the ousted Mike McCoy was.

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