Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.
Last night I was doing totally normal people things like looking through historical NBA data and was struck by a few facts looking at the long-term history of the NBA. I put together this quick-and-dirty chart to illustrate what I found:
As you can see on the gray trend line, the pace of play has been on the upswing for about seven or eight years. This is obvious; any casual NBA fan checking out final scores of games could give you that groundbreaking piece of analysis. What has also been clear to anyone watching games is the corresponding rise of three points shots – represented here by the green columns. (The Rockets, in fact, became the first team ever to attempt more three pointers than two point shots in 2017-2018.) There is almost a perfect correlation between pace and three point attempts in that period.
What struck me as odd, however, is the trend on free throw attempts. One would think that all types of scoring would be on the rise with the increased pace of play. Faster games taking less of the shot clock each possession would mean more three pointers, more two pointers, more free throw attempts, etc. Digging into why this would be, I noticed something striking. While total field goal attempts increased 12.3% since 2010-2011, from 81.2 per game to 91.2 per game, three point attempts have increased 76% in that same time – 18.0 per game to 31.6 per game.
Since shooting fouls occur beyond the three-point line about 1% of the time (according to 82games.com), it would make sense that a meteoric rise in threes would result in free throw rates that are the lowest since the NBA introduced the three pointer. The data backs it up: the lowest seven seasons for free throw attempts in NBA history are the last seven season.
So as we consider how pace of play helps our decisions in DFS, we should consider the ramifications that higher pace and a three point revolution have on statistics and make sure we are not just targeting the right teams, but also the right type of players who can take advantage. Today’s pacesetters will be a sampling of those types of players.
(Pace stats will be for last season until four weeks of data are accumulated)
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns
O/U – 236.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Lakers – 3rd
Suns – 2nd
Kyle Kuzma ($7,200) – The pickings are a little slim at power forward tonight, so why not lock in a player who has presently hit the trifecta of opportunity, usage, and matchup. With Brandon Ingram still suspended, Kuzma saw an increase in his minutes to 45 (in an overtime loss), but also saw his usage%, effective field goal percentage skyrocket despite the heavy minutes. This game is going to be a track meet tonight, and for however long the Suns choose to stick needles in their eyes playing Ryan Anderson on defense, Kuzma should dominate.
T.J. Warren ($5,700) – Of all bench players on the main slate on Wednesday, Warren has the second highest true usage (26.6%) and fantasy points per game (31.3). He has accomplished this while only averaging 23 minutes per game – less than the likes of DeAndre’ Bembry, Jared Dudley, and Damyean Dotson. Warren may not be a starter, but he is certainly a finisher, and the likes of Anderson and Trevor Ariza may not be long for this game.
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks
O/U – 234
’17-’18 Pace:
Mavericks – 26th
Hawks – 8th
Wesley Matthews ($5,400) – Matthews is one of those boring veteran players that you think about from time to time and remember “oh yeah, he still is in the league.” Tonight, however, should be an opportunity for him to stand out in a truly fast-paced game – especially at his low price. Matthews is unexcitedly middle of the pack for usage among shooting guards, but he draws the nuts defensive matchup against the Hawks, ranked 25th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards. Wes hasn’t played less than 31 minutes this season and is top six in three pointers attempted per game (and hitting 34.5%). Circling back to the data from the introduction to this piece, this means it could be a blow up game for him.
Taurean Prince ($7,200) – I fell in love with Prince last year after the Hawks committed to increasing his minutes when they entered The Tank Zone. His ability to fill up the box score – especially with steals – is just so appealing. The point barrage has continued this season as he is fourth among main slate small forwards in fantasy points per minute, behind three guys you might have heard of (Butler, Durant, King James). He also checks in at 4th among SF with a 25.6% true usage rate, all while being the third lowest SF minutes per game. In a game with a strong total and a spread of only one point, expect Prince’s minutes to easily reach a season-high.
Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls
O/U – 230.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Hornets – 11th
Bulls – 10th
Kemba Walker ($8,400) – Yes, he is the most expensive player in this game, $700 more than the player discussed below, but Walker’s ceiling is unlimited in this game. Walker’s game low this season is 35.9 Fanduel points, reached in only 26 minutes in a blowout. Expanding further, KW is a top-five point guard in minutes, fantasy points per game, usage and fantasy points per minute – at a price equal to Kyle Lowry. The icing on the cake is his defensive matchup. Walker will face Cameron Payne with Kris Dunn out of the Bulls’ lineup. Payne is ranked 146th among guards for defensive win shares in the young season and is allowing an eye-bleeding 122 points per 100 possessions.
Zach LaVine ($7,700) – With Kris Dunn out for an extended period of time, the Bull’s offense should flow through LaVine. In the two games where Dunn was inactive to start the year, LaVine’s usage percentage was at almost 32%, a number that would have been top five in the NBA last year. With such a small sample, we have to hold out hope that the trend will continue, but with the opportunity for playing time in front of him, we can count on LaVine to seize control. LaVine is second among all shooting guards in fantasy points per game tonight, and with only Jeremy Lamb in his way, the scoring explosion should continue.