Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime matchups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.
In NBA DFS, there is a simple equation I try to use for lineup construction:
Pace of Play
+ Opportunity
+ Efficiency
Dollars
More than any other raw stat such as points per game or minutes or even +/-, these under-the-hood factors break through all the noise to find the roots from which production can grow. More advanced stats, freely available at NBA.com or many other places, such as Pace Rating, Usage% and Effective FG% paint a much clearer picture of how players are used and how we can maximize their value.
I’m not that good at the maths so I have not found the right quantitative combination of factors and stats to turn my equation into a featured product and sell it for $39.99 a month, but as a qualitative measure these three variables are always on my radar. I am usually asking myself the following questions:
What is the game’s total over/under?
What Pace rank do the two teams have this year?
Who is in the starting lineup?
What injuries or limitations do players have on a slate?
What players are stepping into roles opened up by injuries?
What aspects of a player’s game correlate well with the matchup (i.e. % of points from 3-pointers versus a bad 3-point defensive team)?
What scheduling factors do we need to consider such as four games in five nights or veterans needing rest?
For the first full NBA slate of the season, let’ open up some Pace Picante Sauce and dip into the lineups and matchups. I know, that was terrible. I’ll just go
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
O/U – 215.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Atlanta – 8th
New York – 17th
Interestingly during this preseason, both of these teams took quite a significant step up in pace. The Hawks jumped up to 3rd in the league while the Knicks made a larger leap to 10th. With Trae Young running the show down in Hotlanta these days, you can expect some rapid pace out of the Hawks. Tonight, because of injuries, Vince Carter is expected to be in the Atlanta starting five. There is actually some video of Young and Carter practicing together that has emerged this week.
Alex Len ($5,100) – Those same injuries have opened up some opportunity for Len as a tremendous value play. With both John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon out tonight, there is next to no competition for Len to have massive minutes. Based on several sites, Len is projected to have the highest points-per-dollar number on the slate, and should be locked into cash lineups as well as tournaments.
Tim Hardaway, Jr. ($6,300) – The Knicks are also dealing with their share of injuries, with Kristaps Porzingis, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Courtney Lee all likely out tonight. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway are likely to do the bulk of the heavy lifting and ball-handling at MSG. Hardaway was a top-10 guard last season in percentage of three pointers taken for their team, and he hit 38.5% of them. Any significant increase in number of possessions for the Knicks could mean a major boost in scoring while Unicorn Porzingis is on the shelf.
New Orleans Pelican @ Houston Rockets
O/U – 230
’17-’18 Pace:
New Orleans – 1st
Houston – 14th
Any time we see an NBA game with an over/under of 230 or higher, we need some major exposure. This game is four points higher than any other contest on the slate and has the makings of a 1980’s-Alex-English-style shootout with star power from every position on the court. Your usual suspects – Harden, Paul, the Brow, Capela, Mirotic – should all feast, but there might also be some value gems in this one.
Jrue Holiday ($8,300) – It’s crazy to think that a player at $8,300 is the fourth priciest player in a single game, but here we are. With Rajon Rondo out of town, and Elfrid Payton new to this system, Holiday is the engine that should make this offense run for the time being. Holiday posted his highest career eFG% last year which tends to happen when you play alongside a passer like Rondo and offensive juggernaut like Anthony Davis. You may have heard that James Harden is not exactly known for his defense these days, so feel free to deploy Holiday without hesitation.
James Ennis ($3,500) – There is actually a starter available in this game for the stone cold minimum price. Losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, Houston replaced them with Ennis and Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is a zero defensively (and some might say offensively at this point), so look for Ennis to log a decent share of the minutes, especially if a defensive presence is needed at the end of the game. A career 35.9% shooter from three, he fits well into the Rockets live-by-the-three-die-by-the-three mentality.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
O/U – 215
’17-’18 Pace:
Dallas – 26th
Phoenix – 2nd
Dallas is another team pressing the gas this preseason, creeping up to 21st, but it’s Phoenix that will keep this game a track meet with their young, athletic players all over the floor. Even though the starting forwards for Phoenix might nominally be Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson, I believe we will see heavy minutes from Josh Jackson and T.J Warren, two players who can catch fire in a hurry. Unless you were one of the nine people paying attention to late-season Suns game last year, you might have missed Jackson’s production. Here are his last five games of the season with Fanduel points:
But I guess I am burying the lede here somewhat. This game touts the HIGHLY anticipated matchup of super-rookies Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic. As just a pure basketball fan, I cannot wait to see what these guys have in store for us.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,800) – Harrison Barnes is officially out for this game, opening up increased usage for DFS (hey, that’s convenient). Smith became a nice piece for the Mavericks towards the end of last season. On Fanduel, he averaged 25.9 points per game while seeing 34.5 minutes of floor time in his last four games. I know Barnes is on the big contract, but there may be some opportunity here for Smith to show the Mavericks what he can do with an expanded role.
Deandre Ayton ($7,200) – Take a photo of that price, because I imagine it’s the last time we see it that low this season, and maybe for Ayton’s entire career. Tonight we’ve got guys like Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, and Nikola Vucevic priced ahead of Ayton. As the season starts to even out, we will likely see some heavyweight battles for Center pricing – with Towns, Drummond, Jokic, and Ayton as the Mount Rushmore of Centers in 2018-2019. The matchup tonight with Jordan may seem daunting, but the numbers from last year tell a different tale. In fact, Jordan was the 49th ranked center in total defensive win shares across his 77 games. Ayton is just too fast and too springy to let this matchup scare me.