Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.
Is it just me or does there seem to be a lot of blowouts in the NBA this year? I guess it started happening last year in the playoffs and you started to see pieces popping up like “With all these blowouts in the NBA playoffs, will fans stop paying attention?” Moving past the hyperbole of that nonsense, I wanted to look at some numbers to determine if there are more blowouts this year compared to the NBA’s recent past.
Heading to Pro Basketball Reference, I was able to research the past 20 years of Margin of Victory, or the aggregation of each team’s point differential. Going back in that time-frame, I discovered that the teams with the worst margin of victory – the teams that lose by the most – are as follows:
- 2012 Charlotte Bobcats: -13.91 Margin of Victory (so their average game was a 14-point loss)
- 2019 Phoenix Suns: -11.86
- 2000 LA Clippers: -11.52
- 2019 Chicago Bulls: -11.04
- 2014 Philadelphia 76ers: -10.45
- 2016 Philadelphia 76ers: -10.23
- 2019 Atlanta Hawks: -10.19
It strikes me as quite odd (although not surprising) that three of the seven worst margins of victory in the last 20 years come from this season. Granted, there is still a lot of basketball left to be played so these could change over the last 2/3 of this season, but it’s clear there are a number of teams this year that are taking the concept of losing big to new levels.
This can likely be attributed to a number of things, but number one on that list has to be intentional tanking. The team that shows up twice on this list, the 2014-2016 76ers truly redefined losing and its importance in the NBA, so more teams are taking up the mantle of doing whatever they can to avoid the mediocre middle. Being the worst secures the best chances at a top lottery pick. Being the best assures you the best chance at a championship, so there is no incentive to finishing 8th in your conference, and there REALLY is no incentive to finishing 9th.
So how do we handle situations with all these bad teams (the Cavs and Knicks also have large negative margins of victory)? Should we be afraid of more blowouts and their minutes impact on our DFS lineups? There isn’t too much data specific to DFS, but based on what I can find, the answer is “maybe.”
Based on this research from games a decade ago by Hoop-ball.com, unless a spread reaches 12 or more points in a given game, there really is no indication that a blowout is likely. In the chart that compares game outcome to point spread, you will see that the highest likelihood for any finish is within 5-8 points. That rule stands firm for all games with spreads at 12 or below. Past 12 is when you start seeing game finishes that frequently creep past 13 points.
Games with 12-point spreads are rare and typically match up the absolute best in the association with the absolute worst, so it makes logical sense that this would be the case. In the end, you shouldn’t worry too much about spreads unless the number starts creeping up into the teens.
Tonight’s slate features four games all within a 7-point spread, so no worries here:
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets – 225 Total
’18-’19 Pace:
Los Angeles Lakers – 4th
Houston Rockets – 29th
Josh Hart ($4,500) – With the absence of Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram, hart is seeing his minutes per game soar. He has averaged 35 minutes per game over his last three, and assuming he logs around that number tonight, he should feast against a Rockets team ranked 27th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards. Hart’s numbers don’t look great in three of his last four contests, but he faced the spurs in two of those games, who currently rank 6th in defense against shooting guards. On a larger slate, Hart wouldn’t necessarily be on our radar, but if continues to soak up minutes, the opportunity should be there tonight.
Eric Gordon ($5,100) – Recently inserted into the starting lineup, Gordon should see an increase in minutes and usage beyond the solid numbers he was producing off the bench. With Carmelo Anthony a persona non grata and James Ennis on the shelf for a couple week, only Gerald Greed is lurking to steal backup small forward minutes. This is relevant when you consider that among small forwards on the slate, Gordon sees more usage than all players at his position not named LeBron or DeRozan. The Lakers rank 19th against the position defensively, a sign that LeBron is not the defensive force of old or they are rotating over other players to guard that position. With a massive pace bump in this game, Gordon should find plenty of opportunities to get his shot.
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs – 222 Total
’18-’19 Pace:
Los Angeles Clippers – 9th
San Antonio Spurs – 24th
Rudy Gay ($6,400) – I don’t really think I will full-on recommend anyone from the Clippers in this game as they are playing their third game in four nights and get a massive pace drop facing he Spurs. But San Antonio, on the other hand, sees the second largest pace bump of the night and faces a team ranked only 23rd in defense against the power forward position. Strangely, both Danilo Gallinari and Tobias Harris are listed as small forwards on the NBA’s real plus-minus but Harris ranks 37th and Gallinari ranks 50th among their peers. But promoting Gay might just be more a product of what San Antonio needs out of him. They need someone with Gay’s height and length to guard Harris all night. Ranked 12th in the NBA in minutes per game, Harris should be on the floor for as much as he can handle tonight, meaning San Antonio should be looking to Gay for at least 32 minutes (something he has accomplished in three of his last six games). At his average 1.03 fantasy points per minute, it could be a big night.