With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.
As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.
Football is a funny and complicated game. Two quick examples for comparison. This week, Todd Gurley – consensus best running back this year – goes up against the #1 ranked rushing DVOA defense in New Orleans and has his lowest output of the season by six points. Makes sense. Patrick Mahomes – consensus best quarterback this year – goes up against the #1 ranked passing DVOA defense and smashes with 375 yards with three touchdowns and 18 yards rushing. That qualifies as the second most yards and highest passer rating allowed this year by the Browns. What gives? It’s almost like football is hard to predict or something.
Tom Brady – 294 Passing yards/1 TD/-1 Rushing Yard
This is now three out of four games with one or zero touchdown passes for Brady – clearly something that needs our attention. Three out of four touchdowns in this game by the Pats were on the ground – that also needs our attention. Spanning out further, there is more of a balance developing in their scoring. In New England’s first five games of the season, their pass/rush TD ratio was 12/4. In their last four games, it has shifted to 5/7.
This shift seems to be intentional. On Pro Football Reference, you can look at splits for a team’s offense broken down into type of play at different positions on the field. When the Patriots are within an opposing team’s 10-yard line this year, they have called 34 rush and 31 pass on the year. The emergence of Sony Michel, the reliance on James White (2 rushing TDs yesterday), and Cordarelle Patterson shifting positions to running back have allowed them to skew run-heavy, especially at home (45.5% of overall plays).
Game manager Brady might be here to stay for a while, especially with five games left against the Titans, Jets, Dolphins, and Bills.
Verdict: Take It
Philip Lindsay – 17 Rushes/60 Rushing Yards, 3 targets/2 Receptions/24 Receiving Yards
After two straight games of at least 14 touches, 95 total yards, and a touchdown, owners were hopeful for volume and opportunities for touchdowns against Houston. He certainly got the work on Sunday with 19 total touches, but finished with only 84 total yards and no touchdowns. Frustratingly, any opportunities close to the end zone went to Devontae Booker or Jeff Heuerman. After being vultured by Booker on the first touchdown, Lindsay brought the team down the field in a third quarter drive where he saw six touches, only to see the tight end reap the end zone benefits.
Against the Texans – who are now the new #1 ranked rush DVOA defense – we shouldn’t look at this performance and be disappointed. Lindsay now has 19 red zone touches on the year, tied with the likes of Joe Mixon and David Johnson; one more than Ezekiel Elliott and Marshawn Lynch. Lindsay swallowed up 85% of the rushing attempts yesterday and should continue to be the featured back with much lighter match-ups ahead against the Chargers, 49ers, Browns, and Raiders before the end of the season.
Verdict – Leave It
Adam Humphries – 8 Targets/8 Receptions/82 Receiving Yards/2 Touchdowns, 1 Rush/7 Rushing Yards
Saw a great tweet today about recent target share.
That’s a lot of targets, and apparently he doesn’t care who is playing QB for the Buccaneers despite some of the narratives that were floating around last week (Humphries generated a WR rating of 149, according to Pro Football Focus). Since his team’s bye, Humphries is averaging 7.8 targets and 69.3 yards per game and he posted his second straight week with at least 20% of the target share. Lining up in the slot for a team with the most pass attempts in the NFL and the second most touchdown passes on the season – and for a team that seems to be allergic to defense – Humphries is in a prime spot to continue his ascent the rest of the season.
Verdict –
And when you’re looking for your freedom
Nobody seems to care
And you can’t find the door
Can’t find it anywhere
The Price is Right: Week 9 Recap
Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – This was a scary one in the beginning with that what-the-f*** interception he threw, but the Tampa Bay defense didn’t let us down, forcing Fitzmagic to throw it all over the yard for 243 yards and four touchdowns. Grade: A-
Chris Carson – The Seahawks running back was sidelined with an injury after only eight touches against San Diego, leaving us with the assumption that Seattle rushed him back before he was ready. He was averaging five yards per carry before he left, and that was on one healthy leg, but still not enough data to evaluate. Grade: Incomplete
Isaiah Crowell –
We are going to erase this whole game from our collective memories. Grade: D
Chris Godwin – As discussed above, Humphries was the beneficiary – outpacing all of Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, and Godwin. He dropped to fifth in both target share and fourth in air yards as it seems Humphries is poised to overtake him in the offense. Grade: C-
Tre’Quan Smith – It was the right call to get a piece of this game, and his overall numbers are acceptable because of the touchdown, but a clear number two wide receiver in a Brees offense should get more target share than Benjamin Watson and Josh Hill. His usage is something to monitor, as it is down for three straight weeks. Grade: B-