With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.
As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.
Kenyan Drake – 6 rushes/46 yards, 11 targets/7 receptions/69 yards, 1 receiving touchdown
Drake’s 21 fantasy points on Sunday were more than his past three weeks combined (19.1). While he did manage a healthy yards per carry on his six rush attempts, it is his work in the passing game that truly stands out. Eleven targets (once again more than the last three weeks combined, 10) accounted for 33% of the Dolphins’ air targets, almost doubling his closest teammate. Miami clearly saw something they wanted to exploit in the short field and Drake benefited greatly from the Tannehill check downs.
A more involved Drake in the passing game means more opportunity for him to exploit his big play potential. I’m intrigued.
He was still out-rushed 12-6 by Frank Gore, and it seems clear that Miami is going to stay committed Gore for as long as his 82-year old body can withstand it, so even with a healthy yards per carry, don’t expect rushing to be a significant part of Drake’s game without more opportunity.
Here is a quick comparison of their weekly rushing attempts:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
Frank Gore | 9 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 12 |
Kenyan Drake | 14 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
There is a pattern developing here. Dolphins rush = more Gore, hate the Drake. Tread carefully next week, however. The Bears are on the schedule.
Verdict: Rushing – Leave it, Receiving – Take it
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 10 targets/7 receptions/68 yards, 1 touchdown
See below for my crow-eating on Ty Montgomery. Once it became clear that Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison would both miss the game, and with a potential shootout on tap, I assumed a lot of opportunity would be sent Montgomery’s way. Not so much – yesterday was the MVS show.
MVS was in on 95% of Green Bay’s snaps, not only highest on his team but tied for 8th highest among all players. We haven’t fully seen it until this week, but Rodgers clearly has a connection with his new receiver and it was on full display against the Lions.
I always buy into the squeaky wheel narrative with the NFL (Exhibit 1A: Odell Beckham, Jr., Week 5), so when Aaron Rodgers comes out after a 22-0 win in week 4 and talks about points left on the field and more players needing to be involved, I am paying attention. If Cobb and/or Allison are out for any extended time, Valdes-Scantling may take the #2 job and never look back.
Verdict:
Robby Anderson – 5 targets/3 receptions/123 yards, 2 touchdowns
Well. That was an impressive day. How do we evaluate the Anderson/Sam Darnold pairing in future weeks?
Anderson’s catches yesterday were outstanding. Out-running and out-jumping defenders on his two long touchdowns. On his first touchdown, it looks like Bradley Roby is moving in slow motion compared to Anderson. Beautiful.
However, Anderson’s yardage totals for the first four weeks were: 41, 27, 22, 18. That’s a total of 108. That’s less than 123. I’m a modern-day Will Hunting.
His 22.7% target share and 39.1% air yards share are easily season highs. His receptions and average depth of target were all in perfect alignment with the previous four weeks. His smells a little bit to me like the Denver secondary is not the crew we used to know and Darnold took advantage of Anderson being able to burn them. I am willing to concede this might be the beginning of some strong rapport between the two – Quincy Enunwa’s target share has fallen each week of the season – but I need to see it again before I buy in.
Verdict – Leave it
Ezekiel Elliott – 20 rushes/54 yards, 7 targets/7 receptions/30 yards, 0 touchdowns
Man, that 2.7 yards per rush looks ugly.
But let’s not overthink this. The motley crew that makes up the Cowboys wide receivers could do nothing against an average Texans secondary, leaving players like J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Benardrick McKinney to feast at the line of scrimmage. There were multiple tackles for loss in this game and several “how did he not get sacked?” moments by Dak Prescott last night. The Texans were pushing through the offensive line all night.
Elliott’s 27 touches, 20 rushes, and 7 targets are all his second highest of the season. His 2.7 yards per carry is two yards below his prior low for 2018. The volume is there, the offense flows through Zeke, his offense just ran into a brick wall on Sunday night.
Verdict – Leave it
The Price is Right: Week 5 Recap
Where we grade my value play selections from before the games.
Derek Carr – Carr did have a 94.0 passer rating and game flow set up perfectly for Carr to air it out, but he was denied a bigger day by a costly Martavis Bryant fumble and an interception on the doorstep of the end zone. In the end, trusting this Raiders team to be consistent offensively should earn me an “F” from the start. It was also Bad Amari Cooper week, with 3% target share and one catch. Grade: C
Ty Montgomery – See notes on MVS above. This one was brutal. Only three snaps from the slot combined with three targets and four rushing attempts. Game flow was positive, but Rodgers wanted his other pass catchers today. Exacerbating the low usage – his average depth of target was MINUS .67 yards. Grade: D-
David Johnson – The good: 20 touches, 2 touchdowns. The bad: 55 yards on 18 carries, he also had a negative aDOT for the game. It’s a good thing he gets volume and goal-line work. Grade: B+
Taywan Taylor – In hindsight, the low total of this game should have turned me off to pass-catchers. Mariota only had to throw 28 times which wiped out opportunity that was available the week before versus Philadelphia. He continues to be second on his team in target share, air yards share, and total air yards, so in a week with more shootout appeal, we might be able to jump back on here. Grade: C-
Donte Moncrief – While more yards and a score would have made his box score look a whole lot better, the under-the-hood numbers are stellar. There was no player on Sunday targeted more than Moncrief and his 15 targets led to a team leading 76 yards. His target share and air yards share also easily led the team. Some of the massive volume can be attributed to Bortles passing 61 times in the game, but in Jaguars games without Fournette that are projected to be high-scoring, it’s a lock that passing Bortles will emerge. Grade: A-
Vance McDonald – An extremely disappointing amount of usage. Only two targets just ain’t going to get it done, even in this wasteland that is the 2018 Tight End. In a game where James Conner was able to do just about whatever he wanted, Roethlisberger only had to throw 29 times and McDonald fell out of the game plan. Grade D
One thing to watch for Week 6:
If Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp cannot recover from their respective concussions, Robert Woods will lead the next Price is Right column, even if he is $10,000.