With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.
As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.
FD-Guru had a day for the ages yesterday. A record of 12-0 across all slates is one of the most amazing runs I have seen in DFS. If you are not in on these lineups, you should be running as fast as you can to get access to this streak.
Not all of us, however, were so lucky.
Yesterday was not a fun football day for one of my lineups. For the first time in the 2018 NFL season, I did not turn a profit. I can’t say there was anything different about my research or preparation. There were no unusual distractions or schedules that threw me off my game. The only variable that I can point to that seemed different in week 7 from other weeks this season was a mental one. Confidence.
My confidence was sky-high by the time lock hit on Sunday afternoon. The main cash lineup I created earlier in the week held until the late-week news about the Carlos Hyde trade. That moved me off Tarik Cohen (whom I touted in my piece last week) and onto Nick Chubb. Chubb didn’t end up as a bad play, with high volume, more than 60 yards and a touchdown, but that swap ended up being mistake number five in a lineup that quickly sent my irrational confidence spiraling into despair.
Mistake number one was paying (extremely) down for quarterback and starting C.J. Beathard. Scouring past box scores and trying to fit prior results into a current narrative is a recipe for failure. Beathard had some marginal success recently but even against a Rams defense that wasn’t playing up to par in the secondary, their defensive line just dominated during the game. Seven sacks and multiple pressures later, Beathard had nowhere to go except short-to-intermediate passes to George Kittle. Beathard has shown some flashes in past games but at the end of the day, he is a backup for a reason. Backups against the Rams defense are usually
The overreaching confidence in Beathard also funneled Marquise Goodwin into my lineup at a low price which then led me to believe I had a strong feel for cheap wide receiver plays. The result of that stupidity was locking in Jermaine Kearse and his 0.0 points into all lineups. If you’re not doing the math at home, that’s about 11 points across three lineup slots.
But not to fear. All of those cheap players offered me the opportunity to plug in Todd Gurley (of course, who didn’t?), Adam Thielen (god of all wide receivers), and Ezekiel Elliott. I had hope.
SHUT UP, Zeke. You did not feast. These lineup debacles plus the swap out of Cohen (who outscored Chubb by 4.3) left me dead on arrival.
Confidence is a scary thing. Believing that you will be able to force a square peg into a round hole because you have done it before is DFS Psychology 101. But just as we can’t let confidence play a role in lineup decision-making, neither can we with doubt. We press on and sharpen our process and get it right the next week.
In a weird and upside-down week 7, what performances can we leave or take?
Deshaun Watson – 139 Passing Yards/1 TD, 13 Rushing Yards
There were many qualifiers as to why Watson was not a cash lineup play this week, but rather a stronger tournament option.
- On the road
- Against the Jaguars
- Punctured lung (which meant he had ride a bus for 12 hours to the game instead of fly)
- Cracked rib
- Offensive line plays Red Rover instead of blocking people
One of Watson’s otherworldly performances was not necessarily anticipated in this spot, but we were hoping for more passing yards than the BACKUP Jaguars quarterback. The Texans learned early in the game that they had something going with Lamar Miller and rode #MillerTime to his first 100-yard game in two years plus a rushing touchdown. The touches and yards were Miller’s most of the season and it led to his first rushing TD as well.
Clearly the game plan was to limit’s Watson’s exposure to a pass rush and tackles while on the run. His 24 attempts were Watson’s lowest of the season. The low number combined with the 50% completion percentage (lowest of his career) scream to me that the Texans are just trying to keep Watson protected and healthy until the week 10 bye. Better games are ahead against the Colts, Browns, and Eagles still on the schedule.
Verdict – Leave It
Kerryon Johnson – 19 Rushes/158 Rushing Yards, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/21 Receiving Yards
Tough one to gauge here because the results have to be taken with a Theo Riddick-sized grain of salt. Johnson easily had season highs in snap %, rushing share, rushing attempts, rushing yards, and target share. His 8.3 yards per carry also can’t be dismissed as noisy – there were multiple long runs on the afternoon. The rub on Johnson all year is the Lions’ refusal to play him on third down passing situations and near the goal line.
That narrative changed somewhat yesterday, and only partially due to Riddick’s absence. While Johnson did get more run on third downs by default (Ameer Abdullah only played seven snaps), he touched the ball six times in the red zone on Sunday. To put that in perspective, he had only received five red zone touches in the first six weeks. He did not convert his closest carries to the goal line while LeGarrette Blount did, but the opportunity increased substantially. Based on his past two games, Johnson is really forcing the Lions’ hand where they will have to commit more to his game. Even when Riddick comes back the Lions have no choice but to continue to carry on with Kerryon.
Verdict –
Marlon Mack – 19 Rushes/126 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/22 Receiving Yards/1 TD
Your main slate running back performance of the day, friends. Those who put Mack in counting on an increased snap share and some clock-killing time were richly rewarded. In just three games this season, Mack’s raw snap count has increased significantly: 18-24-37. Snap percentage: 29.5-34.8-56.1. The waiver wire darling from several weeks ago, Nyheim Hines’ snap count looks like this over the past four weeks: 62-56-30-17. He only saw the field for 25.8% of the snaps on Sunday in what quickly became a Colts runaway.
Since he returned from injury, Mack has averaged 6.9 yards per carry against the Jets and Bills, two teams in the top half of NFL run defenses, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. If he is able to sustain the volume and efficiency against some of the soft matchups ahead on his schedule such as Oakland, Tennessee (twice), and the New York Giants, we could be looking at a top-15 running back the rest of the way, particularly as Andrew Luck and his weapons begin to get healthy.
Verdict – Take It
Michael Gallup – 5 targets/3 Receptions/81 Receiving Yards/1 TD
If you haven’t watched the move Michael Gallup put on the defender on his 49-yard touchdown catch, please pause and go find it. I mean, the defender looks like he is stuck to the grass after Gallup gives him the double move. However, I just don’t know if something like that is sustainable or predictive. The defender looked like he didn’t even belong in the NFL on that play, so a more competent player might have defended that well and prevented the score. I can’t know for sure, but the box score looks like two catches for 32 yards without the play, so let’s pump the brakes just a little.
The opportunity from the past two weeks is certainly encouraging. Gallup has been on the field for 81% and 85% of the snaps for the Cowboys, but the box scores still show no more than three catches in a game, a ceiling of 45 yards before yesterday, and only an 18.6% share of the team’s air yards on the season. I personally need to see Gallup featured more before I buy in.
Verdict – Leave It
The Price is Right: Week 7 Recap
Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.
C.J. Beathard – See above. Throw up in my mouth. Grade: D-
Tarik Cohen – “Get the ball to Cohen” may be what’s written on the locker room whiteboard these days for the Bears. He is the game plan now. This is five straight weeks his snap count has increased and it looks like Jordan Howard is now a short-yardage, sometimes-goal-line guy. Grade: A
Frank Gore – The 10 rushes against the Lions certainly should have produced more than 29 yards based on the struggles we laid out last week Detroit has had stopping the run. The benefactor of those struggles, it turns out, was Kenyan Drake who despite only rushing six times, turned one of them into a 54-yard touchdown. Not the outcome that was expected, but Gore was mostly shut out of the fun. Grade: C-
Willie Snead – Joe Flacco certainly spent time trying to feed Snead the ball, as he threw seven passes up his way. Snead was only able to come down with three of them for 23 yards, adding one carry for 13 yards. So much for the #RevengeGame story-line. John Brown ended up being the play, but he – like Gallup – benefited from an awful blown defensive assignment, which turned his good day into a monster day with the late 14-yard touchdown. And RIP to Justin Tucker’s PAT streak. Grade: C+
David Njoku – He scored a touchdown because it was an inevitability. Njoku also was targeted six times, which has been a consistent theme lately with Baker Mayfield under center – he has averaged nine targets a game over the past four weeks. Playing Tampa Bay, Njoku was a guaranteed 10 points in your lineup. Grade: A