With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.
As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.
Russell Wilson – 248 Passing Yards/3 TDs, 2 Rush/15 Rushing Yards
That’s three straight games with exactly three passing touchdowns, when Wilson had one such game in his first four to start the season. Along with the touchdown success, the following stats have all improved each week over the last three games: Yards, Passer Rating, Yards Per Attempt, and Completion Rate.
Perhaps more importantly, however, is the improvement of the offensive line since their miserable year in 2017. This season, the Seahawks’ O-line ranks 16th in pass protection with a 6.7% adjusted sack rate, while they ranked 25th in the stat last year at 8.1%. This improvement along the line and Wilson minimizing his rushing attempts have led to better throwing opportunities to a steadily improving and healing receiver corps.
The Seahawks next six games look appealing from a passing defense DVOA standpoints. They play the Chargers (ranked 16th), Rams (7th), Packers (15th), Panthers (26th), 49ers (23rd), and Vikings (19th). Feel free to fire up Wilson during that stretch.
Verdict – Take It
Adrian Peterson – 26 Rush/149 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 1 Target/1 Reception/7 Receiving Yards/1 TD
Peterson might just be the easiest player to predict in the NFL this year. Look at the chart below and see if you can spot the correlation:
Any game that has a close script, more specifically any game where the spread is less than a field goal, Peterson is heavily involved in the offensive attack. By no means do I think that Washington is game-planning him out when there are larger spreads, the narrative just becomes close game with a lead = Peterson churn out the yards and the clock, close game while trailing = Peterson is our best player gives the offense the best chance at positive yards. Blowout games where Washington trails become Chris Thompson time and blowout games where Washington leads become save Peterson’s legs for when we need him.
Washington is one of several meh teams in the NFL this year, good enough where it will be rare that they are blown out. Bad enough that they won’t destroy other teams. Interestingly, those outcomes have only happened once each this season. The Redskins rank 22nd in offensive DVOA and 22nd in overall defensive DVOA heading into week 9, according to Football Outsiders, aligning squarely within the narrative.
Nothing much needs to be said about Peterson’s talent. We all know he is incredible, even at age 33. What we must account for is predictive game flow.
Verdict – Take It (when the projected spread/game flow account for it)
Philip Lindsay – 18 Rush/95 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 3 Targets/3 Receptions/17 Receiving Yards
Lindsay continues to be incredibly efficient with more opportunity in the wake of the Royce Freeman injury. One of the most surprising stats of the season has to be that Lindsay is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards, having now passed fellow rookie Saquon Barkley (Lindsay is also sixth in yards per rush this year). One of those two was an undrafted free agent. One of them was drafted second overall. In this hot take culture in regards to running backs don’t matter (system over player is my stance), Lindsay v. Barkley is Exhibit 1A that high draft capital should never be spent on a running back.
Lindsay crossed the 60% threshold in week 8 for rushing market share, doubling what Devontae Booker saw when he was on the field. He also was a part of the passing game, drawing over 12% of the target share, a sure-fire sign that Lindsay is not game-flow dependent and the Broncos trust him in all down and yardage situations.
The Broncos simply have no choice but to let Lindsay run free man, even when Freeman comes back from his ankle injury. I will be watching his matchup against the stout Texans run defense closely next week – a true test of how reliable a workhorse Lindsay can be. He passes that test and he may be matchup proof for the balance of the schedule.
Verdict – Take It
Kenny Golladay – 1 Target/1 Reception/12 Receiving Yards
That’s three total targets for Babytron over the last two weeks. Frustrating and confusing. A sampling of the players who outscored Golladay in Week 8 reads as follows: Rashad Greene, Sr., Justin Hunter, Charone Peake, Quadree Henderson, Chad Williams, and I could keep going. I bet there is at least one name on that list you had not heard before now.
But we still can’t dismiss the 8.2 targets per game the five weeks prior. Depending on how you view Golladay’s role in the offense, it could just be that he has been facing tough assignments event though game scripts would seem to be in his favor. Both Miami and Seattle – his last two opponents – rank in the top half of the NFL against #3 receivers, according to Football Outsiders. Golladay saw 92% of the snaps in this game, and by all accounts still appears to be a primary weapon, but the Lions have just continued to feed who their hot hand is in the offense. In Week 8 that was Marvin Jones, Jr. and in Week 7 it was Kerryon Johnson.
This is more a gut call than anything else, but with their next five games against powerhouse offenses (Vikings, Bears twice, Panthers, Rams), I think they are going to give Golladay similar usage to his first five games. The touchdowns will be hit and miss on this team, but I believe the volume is coming.
Verdict – Best music video ever or worst music video ever?
The Price is Right: Week 8 Recap
Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.
Matthew Stafford – 40 pass attempts and 310 pass yards are strong, as are the two touchdowns, but his day could have been so much better if not for the soul-crushing interception he threw from the Seattle four-yard line in the fourth quarter. Grade: B
Marlon Mack – It was definitely Mack Daddy time against Oakland on Sunday. Season highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, targets, rushing share. You name it, he excelled in it yesterday. Behind an offensive line that is now fifth overall in adjusted line yards, Mack shows no signs of slowing down and his completely taken over the rushing game in Indy now that he is healthy. He just needs a nickname, does Mack have a nickname? Grade: A
Raheem Mostert – Despite being labeled as questionable and that his play would be “limited,” Matt Breida gobbled up the majority of the rushing for San Francisco. Mostert got two carries – and they were great – but still not enough for a grade. Grade: Incomplete
Jarvis Landry – Landry is operating like the anti-Adrian Peterson lately – impossible to predict. The targets were still there against the Steelers (12), and he did catch a healthy amount of passes (8), but for only 39 yards!! Would you believe me if I told you this was Landry’s third lowest yards-per-reception game of his career? Well, you should. Grade: C+
Robert Woods – Josh Reynolds happened. I thought we were past that after last week. Mother Forking Shirt Balls. It certainly wasn’t a bad game with five catches for 70 yards for Woods, but in a projected shootout, we were all hoping for more. One of those Reynolds touchdowns could have gone his way, maybe? Grade: B-