The Price is Right: NFL Week 16

Sometime over your holiday break, you need to read this interview I stumbled across about how the audience and contestants are picked for The Price is Right. So, so many good nuggets in here about what can help and what can hurt your chances of making it in the door to the studio and also what can improve your chances of getting on stage. Who knew that showing up to the line a little drunk might improve your odds of getting in? Also, they allocate more tickets to the show than they can actually accommodate? Some grandma who planned her whole vacation so she could get into The Price is Right is told to go back to Omaha disappointed? Brutal.

Here’s another hint from the former staffer on improving your chances: Don’t be one of those people who says “woooo!”

Perhaps the most interesting piece of info in here is the fact that the producers screen each person before they go into the studio to see if they are the right type of person who would do well on stage. Apparently, they aren’t just taking the pretty people or the old people or those who made the best shirts, but instead the ones who won’t get up there and start licking Drew Carey’s face.

According to their numbers of audience size, that means everyday they are evaluating 325 people to determine whether they can trust them or if they are going to make the producers, the show, the network, and the advertisers look like buffoons.

I don’t know about you, but it sounds to me like every DFS player would be extremely qualified for that job.

How many times a week do we sit and stare at a list of hundreds of players just to determine if they can help us or bankrupt us that day? I love the part in the article talking about regulars who constantly try to crash the studio audience wearing wigs and fake mustaches even though they have been asked to never come back. Sounds familiar…

“Well there is David Njoku again. He’s cheap and has done some good things in the past. Baker Mayfield is improving, right? The match-up isn’t the toughest. He had 182 air yards one week last year.”

No. Get out of my life, David Njoku. I only believe that you are going to royally screw me. And there are countless players like this.

My hope for you this holiday season is that as you screen the tricky list of players in this injury-filled week that you are gifted the players who produce as you expect and that they do it in a way that boosts your ROI enough to pay off the holiday bills.

On to the players whose price is right in Week 16.

Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky ($7,900) – Trubisky is the 10th most expensive quarterback on the slate this week, despite facing a San Francisco defense that is giving up the 8th most FD QB points on the year. In fact, only the Raiders have given up more passing touchdowns than the 49ers, who also give up the fifth most FD points to opposing wide receivers.

Trubisky, who has been known to throw a bad pass or two in his life, especially on the road, doesn’t have to worry about too much this week. The 49ers are in the basement of the league with only two interceptions all year. Two is pretty awful. The next closest team is six.

But it’s not all about the defense he is facing. Trubisky has 26 total touchdowns on the season – despite missing two games to injury – more than two TDs per game. He tends to torch the teams with bad passing defenses this year – as several millionaire contest winners will testify. Against other teams in the top ten of most FD points to QBs (Tampa Bay, New England, and Miami), Trubisky has scored 43.46, 33.42, and 28.34 points. As Chicago looks to lock up a first-round bye, I imagine they keep their foot on the pedal in this one.

Running Back

Elijah McGuire ($5,700) – Green Bay, McGuire’s opponent, is decidedly average against the run on the season. They have allowed a middle-of-the-pack 20.8 FD points and 11 touchdowns to running backs on the year. They struggle most against pass-catching running backs, ranking 28th in the league in DVOA. McGuire, since his return from injury, has at least four targets in 2/3 of his games and now has the backfield all to himself with Crowell and Powell gone for the year.

In their past five games, the Packers have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and have given up four rushing touchdowns as they have been gashed by Chris Carson, Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, and Jordan Howard. Whether or not you put McGuire in the same class as those rushers is another conversation, but there is no question he is talented. The diminutive running back from UL Lafayette has ranked in the top 25 in fantasy points for running backs the last two weeks despite facing Houston and Buffalo, two teams in the top 10 for rushing defense DVOA.

For $5,700 you could do a lot worse than a back with 41 touches in the past two weeks playing at home against a deflated Packers team just waiting for vacation.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper ($7,000) – Despite the fact that his price (correctly) did not drop or rise after last’s weeks disappointing game against the Colts, Cooper is ranked as the 14th most expensive wide receiver on the slate. Now, he is headed home to take on a defense giving up 31.9 FD points per game to wide receivers (and 19 total touchdowns in 14 games). No matter what metric you prefer, Tampa Bay is a bottom seven defense against wide receivers this season – pass DVOA, #1 WR DVOA, FD points allowed, touchdowns allowed, etc. They have just been straight terrible at shutting down receivers.

As mentioned above, the Colts game was a disaster for Cooper (6.3 FD points) and all the Cowboys, but it was on the road against a team allowing the fifth fewest FD points to wide receivers, and in a game where the Cowboys were missing their starting center. Cooper’s last four games at home, on the other hand, have been nothing short of spectacular with scores of 44.7, 9.6, 34, and 14.3.

Give me Cooper over the likes of Julian Edelman, Mike Evans and Kenny Golladay, all priced equally or above him in Week 16.

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