In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel and who we can invite to come on down into our lineups. This won’t be a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

If we are honest with ourselves, playing NFL DFS is really like spinning the Big Wheel and hoping to hit a dollar without busting. With game scores this year in the stratosphere, we have more opportunities to get it right, but with so much variance around game script, opportunities for touchdowns, and personnel, even our most calculated spins are nothing more than educated guesses.

From week to week, the seemingly obvious moves can hit or miss with randomness. In weeks 1 and 4, for example, the mega chalk all hit. Players like Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Emmanuel Sanders, Gio Bernard, Sterling Shepherd, and Eric Ebron met or exceeded expectations, raising DFS cash lines and assuring GPPs could only be won by nailing each and every lineup spot. In these mega chalk weeks, you spin the wheel and it feels like you are hitting jackpot every time.

But then there are weeks like 2 and 3, where the chalk busts leaving us with a T.J. Yeldon taste in our mouths after choking down his 8.1 fantasy points. The process doesn’t lead to the result, and we watch helplessly as Latavius Murray gets two rush attempts. Stupid Murray and Vikings DST stack. We just have to realize that in a game like football the likely outcome doesn’t mean it’s the guaranteed outcome and we have to be ok making it to the showcase with a nickel.

So we press on to week 5. After four weeks, we have a decent sample of who teams are and who they are not. Below is a glance at some of the better underpriced options for the main slate, and a quick breakdown of why they should make our lineups.

Quarterback – Derek Carr ($7,000)

Blake Bortles ($7,000) is likely to be the chalk cash play of the week, facing a Chiefs team that is hemorrhaging points to opposing offenses and carries a game-total of 49 points and a 23 point team-total. With Leonard Fournette out, Bortles’ splits are off the charts in terms of his passing numbers. However, can I interest you in a QB with a game-total of 53 and a 24 team-total for the same price? Derek Carr, come on down.

Despite Jon Gruden’s desire to install an old-school run on first-, second- and third-down offense, the Raiders’ defense hasn’t allowed that to happen. Only four QBs average more pass attempts than Carr on the year, as his team is constantly playing from behind. As five-point underdogs on the road in week five, you can guess what the most likely game script will be. This won’t be a Marshawn Lynch game after about the seven-minute mark of the first quarter.

On the other side of the ball, without Joey Bosa, the Chargers are failing to generate the type of pressure they want to disrupt opposing QBs. Through their first four games, they are tied for 22^nd with only eight sacks on the year. Play Carr with confidence in what should be a shootout in Los Angeles.

Running Back – David Johnson ($7,600)

So let me get this straight, DJ’s fantasy points from weeks 2 thru 4 have gone up from 5.6 to 16.7. His touches have gone from 14 to 25, but his price has dropped $600 in that same timeframe? When I look at those two numbers moving in opposite directions I can only think of

It only took four weeks for the Cardinals’ coaching staff to realize they should let their best player touch the ball the most, but whatever, change is hard. McCoy has only been coaching in the NFL for 18 years, so let’s give him a break.

I can only imagine Johnson’s share of this offense will increase. In that same three week span from weeks 2-4, his target share increased from 7.4% to 16%, his rushing opportunities never dropped below 71%, and he out-snapped all other Arizona RBs by about 6-to-1. He is a true workhorse back who should only get stronger as the year goes along.

But the stat weighing most heavily in Johnson’s favor is his opportunities close to the end zone, where he has six rushes+targets where no one else on his team has more than one.

Running Back – Ty Montgomery ($5,500)

It’s pretty clear that Green Bay is going to use a running back by committee approach this year. With three quality running backs, all with different strengths, the backfield may be a headache throughout the year.

But it’s because we may see Montgomery in a role other than running back this week that makes him so valuable. With Randall Cobb ($6,100) out, Davante Adams ($8,000) and Geronimo Allison ($5,700) battling the calendar to recover from a concussion, that leaves the receiver trio of Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,800), Equanimeous St. Brown ($4,500), and J’Mon Moore ($4,500) to pick up the slack against the Lions. I am not convinced these are real people but rather the product of some kind of wide receiver random name generator. Prove me wrong.

So what is the most likely scenario in a road game against their division-rivals? Rodgers will likely lean on his most trustworthy options. As the best pass-catching back on the roster, Montgomery should soar in that role. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Montgomery lined up frequently in the slot in this game. He has already run five routes out of the slot so far this season. Cobb and Allison have combined for 154 slot routes through four weeks, so look for Montgomery to play more of a receiver role this week, on the field more than just clear passing downs.

Wide Receiver – Taywan Taylor ($5,000)

Number one receiver on his team? Nope. High team total and part of a shootout? Unlikely. Massive weekly production? Only if a high of 11.2 points gives you the feels.

“I think you misspelled Corey Davis.”

So why recommend a receiver in a low-scoring game with options in front of him and no break-the-slate history? Simple: projected opportunity.

Davis ($6,400) will be covered in this game primarily by Tre’Davious White, a defensive back graded well above average by Pro Football Focus. Davis had the stellar game against the Eagles in week 4, but lost in the excitement over his explosion is the usage of Taylor with Delanie Walker out for the year and Rishard Matthews on a bus out of town. Taylor has seen his targets and receiving yards increase each week of the season. In week 4, Taylor also exploded for 110 Air Yards, a top 20 number for the week.

If you can figure out how the Titans want to use their running backs, please DM me, I could use your help. With the running game a mystery, their top receiver covered up during the game, and lacking other options, the recipe is there for a smash spot for Taylor.

Wide Receiver – Donte Moncrief ($5,600)

Trying to determine which Jaguars receiver will have the most productive week seems like a fool’s errand. Dede Westbrook ($5,900), Keelan Cole ($5,700) and Moncrief have all had productive weeks through the first month of the season. However, a peek under the hood reveals we should take the small savings on Moncrief to gain our exposure to this game with a total that is creeping towards 50.

Air Yards is one of the most historically predictive stats for receivers. Moncrief’s average Air Yards through four weeks sits at 62.3. That number is 14 yards higher than Cole and 28 yards higher than Westbrook in the same timeframe. Not surprisingly, Moncrief’s market share of the team’s Air Yards leads the team at 30.5%, which cleanly correlates to his team lead in Average Depth of Target (aDOT) – 11.64.

“What about opportunity?! Rate stats are nice, but is he ever on the field?” Chill out, I got you. Moncrief is averaging 76% of his team’s offensive snaps, trailing only Cole on the year. Moncrief is on the field, he is getting the throws, and Bortles is looking long to him on his targets. The points are coming. This week.

Tight End – Vance McDonald ($4,600)

If there is one thing I have learned reading fantasy football analysis, the author is required to do a Player A vs. Player B blind comparison somewhere in the piece. We are running out of time, so I had better get to it.

Player A
15 targets
12 receptions
200 receiving yards
1 touchdown

Player B
24 targets
17 receptions
233 receiving yards
1 touchdown

Not too much different here. We would probably prefer Player B, but it’s certainly close. You may be surprised to learn that Player A is Vance McDonald through four weeks and Player B is Rob Gronkowski through four weeks.

McDonald is the clear cheap play to get exposure to the offensive game of the week in Pittsburgh. Points should be flowing like the three rivers at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon. McDonald’s increased exposure in the Steeler’s offense ensures he is close to a lineup lock for cash games and tournaments this week. Vance has received exactly five targets in three straight weeks, and in week 4, his share of the Air Yards exploded to 16.9% after hovering around 5% the two weeks prior.

There may be bigger games coming from Antonio Brown ($9,000), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,000), and James Conner ($7,800), but the best chance to get 4x-5x value comes from the Steelers’ tight end. With an implied team-total of 30.5, McDonald is going to get his share.