In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.
Of all the things that I enjoy that define the entirety of my nerdiness, game-show game theory stands out. Game-show game theory is truly what nerds think is nerdy. I understand, but I gotta be me. I can scream just as loud at my team, the Texans, as I can at the bidding strategies of the three contestants on Final Jeopardy. I need to make that confession before we dive in here.
It’s safe to assume that everyone has heard of Contestant’s Row on The Price is Right. If you have any knowledge of the show, you understand that this is the process of four contestants bidding on a prize to earn their way on stage for a chance at the larger prizes and a shot at the Showcase Showdown at the end. What I think is much less known is HOW to maximize your chances of winning Contestant’s Row.
Taking advantage of the inefficiencies of that Contestant’s Row process is key to an optimal bid and a better chance at a Drew Carey hug. Seeing a model walk by with a collection of designer sunglasses and then guessing their value is just not an everyday occurrence. People are not used to that type of analysis and pressure and are not good at it. Depending on the order of your guess, it’s probably best to play off the other contestants instead of a random guessing game where you have zero knowledge or experience. For example:
Now, on The Price is Right you can just hope to get lucky and that some kind of inefficiency falls into your lap
or you can look at each game in front of you and attempt to leverage it to your advantage. There has even been research done on the optimal strategy of every game on The Price is Right and how rational are the decisions of contestants on the show. If you want to take down the games, the information is out there.
I say all this to reference an excellent point that was made in Sammy Reid’s piece on Rotogrinders in Week 5 – The Reid Option. In the piece, he talks about his belief that cheaper wide receivers have become the new market inefficiency in the 2018 NFL. We have never seen scores this high or passing with this frequency, so until the market (DFS sites, other players, etc.) catch up to it, we should continue to use it to our advantage. In previous weeks, these value players have all led to winning lineups:
Tyler Boyd
Sterling Shepherd
Robby Anderson
Kenny Stills
Desean Jackson
Ted Ginn, Jr.
Calvin Ridley
Keke Coutee
Donte Moncrief
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
None of these are guys who were in upper tiers of preseason ranks or were players drafted in the top 10 rounds of any season-long league. But as long as these types of pass-catchers continue to be week-winners, we will continue to try and unearth them from helpful data like snap counts, target share, and opportunities close to the goal line.
Each slate sets up uniquely and there will always be a Week 1 James Conner or a Week 5 T.J. Yeldon, but the wide receivers seem to be dominating with so much more frequency. Fading these plays can leave us on the outside looking in. With running backs priced up in Week 6, those values are going to be key to cashing.
Quarterback – Jameis Winston ($7,400)
The troublesome thing about game theory is that it can too often lead to paralysis by analysis. Some things you just can’t overthink. I am sure if Google “week six” and “value QB’ you will find, as my son would say, eight bajillion opinion pieces claiming Winston is the play this week. But just because it’s the chalk doesn’t make it wrong.
Here are the Fanduel QB points so far against the Falcons thru Week 5:
Nick Foles – 5.58 (granted, this is bad, but it’s also Nick Foles in a lightning-delayed primetime game)
Cam Newton – 28.60
Drew Brees – 40.54
Andy Dalton – 25.78
Ben Roethlisberger – 22.60
Even with the Foles game, you are looking at 24.62 points per game. What is also intriguing about those matchups and projecting Week 6 is what has become a standard DFS play in 2018 – pass catching running backs against the Falcons. The Panthers, Saints, Bengals, and Steelers all have outstanding pass catching backs and utilized them extensively in their game plans. The Bucs rely on Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers. This could mean Winston will be forced to rely more heavily on deeper throws, trusting his elite arsenal of Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate.
The over/for this game is 57.5 – 4.5 points higher than the next closest contest. Both teams have dumpster fire defenses (more on that later) and elite offenses. A shootout is coming and we are going to want the trigger that will fire up the scoring.
Full Disclosure – Devonta Freeman was ruled out right after I finished writing this, so Tevin Coleman ($6,300) is the real answer to your cheap running back problems.
Running Back – Jordan Howard ($6,200)
Let’s get one thing out of the way first. Howard has awful in his last game. Against Tampa Bay, he rushed 11 times for 25 yards and had one target that he did not catch. But since the Bears won the game by 900 points and Mitchell Montana threw for six touchdowns, Howard just wasn’t needed. Against the Dolphins, however, the script should be wildly different.
According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins have the 5th best pass defense in 2018. Against the run, it’s been a different story. Only one week this year has Miami played the run well – Week 2 against the Jets. In their other four games, their opponents have averaged 125.75 rushing yards and one touchdown. I mean they allowed more than five yards per carry to Doug Martin in Week 3. Come on.
Including Week 4, Howard plays on 65% of the snaps per game and averages 55% of the rushing share (again, including a 35% share in Week 4 – he was at 77% in Week 3). He also has every rush for the Bears inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks.
Blend all these numbers up with the fact that the Bears are three point favorites on the road and have the seventh highest percentage of rushing plays in the league, and the script sets up for a big week for Howard.
Running Back – Chris Carson ($6,400)
I couldn’t be more chuffed about this football match, bloke. T’will be quite the sight to see the Seahawks try to queer the Raiders pitch in ole Londontown.
Rich Hribar had a fascinating stat in his Week 6 Worksheet Column this week. He found that 87.5% of Chris Carson’s rush attempts have gained positive yardage – second most in the league for running backs with more than 50 attempts. So we can check the production box.
In the first two weeks of 2018, the Seahawks experimented with five different running backs – Carson, Mike Davis, Rashaad Penny, C.J. Prosise, and Tre Madden. By the time Week 5 rolled around, that number funneled down to two. Carson played on 58% of the snaps and Davis played on 48%. No other running back even attempted a rush in week 5. Russell Wilson – who has rushed 5.6 times per game in his career – also didn’t rush once in Week 5. Branches on this rushing usage tree are rapidly falling off, and Carson is beginning to reap the benefits – 54 touches the past two weeks! Check for the usage box.
You don’t need me to tell you how bad the Raiders are at stopping the run. They are 24th and falling fast.
Wide Receiver – Mohamed Sanu ($5,800)
I think the White Stripes said it best:
“In some respects I suspect you’ve got a respectable side.”
Well you don’t know what love is until you play a wide receiver against the Tampa Bay pass defense. Sanu has been showing his respectable side lately as the Falcons defense continues to struggle and they are forced into some heavy passing game flows.
In these shootouts, Sanu’s usage has been on the rise. Look at the chart below from Jim Sannes’ matchups to exploit column from this week:
Besides the fact that the 0.0% of red-zone targets to Julio Jones makes my eyes bleed, you can see how Sanu is working his way into usage. He is second in overall target share and second in red-zone targets in this three game sample.
In addition, among wide receives on the Falcons he has the second highest target share, overall targets and receptions the past two games. He continues to outpace Calvin Ridley in snap percentage, and now leads him 81% to 61% on the season.
Back to the 57.5 over/under in this game for a moment. The primary culprit for that number has to be the Tampa Bay pass defense. According to Football Outsiders, they are in the basement and score significantly worse than the 31st ranked pass defense (New Orleans). They are being absolutely torched and are giving up 40.7 Fanduel points per game to wide receivers.
Wide receiver – Jarvis Landry ($6,900)
I truly, madly, deeply wanted to write about Robert Woods in this space, and he may still be underpriced, but all the reports out of Rams camps this week have been generally positive about the concussions for Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp, so there may be more skill players to fit into the pie this week. With that uncertainly, let’s pivot to Landry who is $400 cheaper.
Sometimes it’s baffling how underrated Landry can be. His average targets per game sits at 11.6 – third in the NFL, behind only Brown and Thielen. He is targeted more than Hopkins, Julio, Diggs, Adams, Michael Thomas, etc. And half of his playing time has been with Tyrod Taylor under center. He is also third in target share percentage at 30.9% behind only Brown and Hopkins.
The Chargers have a very middle of the pack pass defense – currently ranked 16th – but that masks what could be a potential inefficiency in how the Browns will approach this game. According to Player Profiler, Landry plays 62.6% of his snaps in the slot this year. The Chargers’ best cornerback, Casey Hayward, only has lined up in the slot 2.4% of the time in his five games in 2018.
Beyond Hayward, the Chargers have no one who can cover Landry in that position. What I love about this opportunity for Landry is that even though he is coming primarily out of the slot, he has still led his team in air yards market share in three of five games. Usage plus a soft defense. Landry should feast.