In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.
There really is only way to eat a burrito, Justin Bieber. You can’t just open up all the foil and bite through the side of that thing like some kind of animal. Have some respect, man.
But when it comes to building DFS lineups, there are myriad ways to cross the cash line. Week eight will be an interesting experiment for the stars and scrubs approach or the more balanced attack. Coming off a week where many of the most popular value plays busted (looking at you Kearse, Goodwin, Snead, and countless others…), owners will reasonably be cautious of dipping down too far into the salary pool. Ownership trends will perhaps favor players with a higher floor, but without the prospect of a monster ceiling. Recency bias can do that to us.
At first glance, it does seem that there will be multiple avenues to successful roster construction in this eighth NFL week. Are you one who will lock in Gurley and his massive upside despite an $11,000 sticker price and then focus on value running backs? A popular strategy this week may also be to prioritize three of the next level of running backs, finding room for a James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Kerryon Johnson. In tournaments, a Rams/Packers game stack or a Mahomes/Kelce stack with value around them should have high percentages of ownership.
Whatever your risk tolerance, you can find a way to accumulate points in week eight. The destination has several roads that can get you there, but the best advice anyone can give is to put yourself in the best position possible to maximize points and value. Don’t be like this guy
Think about the options available in front of this guy. Unless he is an employee of the company that makes this exercise machine and knows the exact retail price, there are literally 998 better answers he could have given than $999. By locking in that bid, he gave himself a .001% chance to win. Did it work out? Yes, just like it worked out for some lucky joker in South Carolina this week in the Mega Millions. Was it the right process? No. In fact, if he believed the machine was less than $1,000 there was literally no worse answer he could have given.
Don’t force yourself into bad decisions. I have caught myself thinking from time to time, “well, I have Gurley, Mahomes, and Thielen. Kelce makes a good play with Mahomes, so maybe I will be ok with C.J. Prosise as my second RB.” Do not do that to yourself.
Let’s find some value for week eight.
Quarterback – Matthew Stafford ($7,300)
Several projection models love Stafford this week and have him slated as the top points per dollar quarterback on the slate. Stafford is priced the same as C.J. Beathard this week, which should tell you all you need to know about whether we can find value in playing him.
If we remove that week one Monday Night Football debacle against the Jets, Stafford has an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, never throwing fewer than two TDs a game.
The matchup, as you may have heard, is not nearly as intimidating as it might have been in years past against Seattle. One of my favorite stats for this week is that Seattle is fifth worst in the league in quarterback hurries per game. Matt Stafford at home in a dome and with a clean pocket is something I want in my life.
Running Back – Raheem Mostert ($5,600)
Last week I posted nothing more than a chart displaying tight end points allowed by the Buccaneers in an effort to persuade you to play David Njoku. Today, I present an equal level of laziness in the form of this chart:
This play hinges on the availability of Matt Breida on Sunday. If Breida misses the game, it will be tremendously tough not to lock in Mostert against a team allowing the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns through seven weeks.
One interesting tidbit I ran across – according to Pro Football Focus, Mostert has the fourth best elusive rating the past three weeks.
Running Back – Marlon Mack ($6,700)
I grew up in the age of
Which then turned over its place in Mack vernacular to “Return of the Mack,” but Kriss Kross will always be the OG. To show my respect, this will be another smash spot for the miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity Mack daddy.
Now, he is listed as the questionable Mack Daddy right now, so all this is for naught if he doesn’t play, but last week’s game should have us Krossing our fingers that he does. In a similarly scripted game against the Bills, Mack saw 37 snaps to just 17 for Nyheim Hines and gobbled up 51.4% of the rushing share while no other player saw more than 16%.
I am getting excited about matching Mack and his 9th ranked 6.4 yards per touch against the Raiders and their 29th ranked defense. The Raiders are already in Tank Time and Mack is prepared to capitalize.
Wide Receiver – Jarvis Landry ($6,700)
Some straight facts. Landry’s ranks in the following categories this season:
Red Zone Targets – 6th in NFL
% Red Zone Target Share – 1st
Targets per game – 3rd
Steelers allow 110.9 yards per game to opposing team’s lead wideouts according to Rich Hribar. Landry finally started clicking with Baker Mayfield in the second half of last week’s game (and his price only went up $200). If that continues, Landry could be set to take off.
Wide Receiver – Robert Woods ($7,600)
I am of the mind that you almost have to have a piece of this game in your main lineups. I know, I know – I should go read what I wrote in the intro. That doesn’t mean I going to jam in Lance Kendricks just to have some exposure, it just means I will prioritize finding a player who fits into a reasonable roster build. For me, that means Gurley, the quarterbacks, Davante Adams, or Robert Woods.
With Cooper Kupp still out this game, and with a slate-high total of 56.5, there is a perfect storm brewing for Woods. A pie with limited options inside it already remains without a key piece, opening up a larger slice for Woods. And the pie grows much larger this week due to the opponent. The Packers are a head-scratching 9.5 point underdog here, but they are going to score. I will be mildly surprised if Aaron Rodgers lets this turn into a blowout.
The Packers are sneaky bad against teams’ number one receivers, ranked 29th in DVOA. Woods, who has led the Rams in target share the two weeks Cupp has missed is clearly Jared Goff’s favorite weapon in the open field. Kupp and his 11 red zone targets will not be on the field Sunday, so in a shootout I want the most reliable weapon.