In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.
Welcome to holiday Starbucks cup day, because apparently it’s is a day of national importance. There is widespread anticipation and debate over what design is going to be on your cup that will be in the trash in 15 minutes. For some reason, there is a subsection of the population who take this unveiling WAY too seriously. On one side, there are those who decide it’s ok to start drinking Starbucks again after an 11-month hiatus, like Starbucks does something to improve the quality of the coffee between mid-November and Christmas.
Then there is the other side. Those who feel it necessary to degrade the company and their customers and relentlessly and disgustingly make these cups about religious imagery, belief systems and appropriate iconography. How some people can get this outraged about a cup design is beyond me.
I guess I should not be surprised after all these years by the things I see on Twitter. Some of our own fantasy community recently devolved into human garbage because of a couple plays in last week’s Rams/Packers game. Fantasy owners angry at Todd Gurley letting himself be tackled and Packers’ fans furious with Ty Montgomery for his kick-off fumble displayed some of the worst (anonymous) behavior imaginable.
I have no words. There were even reports of people making threats against Montgomery’s family after that play.
Why do we play this fantasy game? Seemingly as a distraction from the real world, where we too often encounter real pain, grief and heartbreak. But if you put a little money behind it or put people up against each other each week to declare a winner, our endowment in the outcome runs deeper and we become just as passionate about a fake football game as we do about much, MUCH more serious things.
Some weeks we make the right calls, some weeks the wrong ones. But every week we are trying to essentially predict the future, which is an impossible task. So if we are going to fail, or people who have zero investment in our personal outcomes or satisfaction are not going to play up to expectations, let’s keep some perspective. Games are fun. Football is fun. Don’t ruin it for everyone.
Rant over. Just a fun Price is Right clip to lighten the mood.
On to Week 9 value players.
Quarterback – Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,100)
There will be a lot of exposure this week in cash games and tournaments to the likes of Mahomes, Newton, Goff, and Brees – and rightly so. With pricing so compacted on FanDuel, the opportunity cost doesn’t cripple you to take one of the high priced guys. In fact, apart from Mahomes, every QB that would be a reasonable start is priced between $8,600 and $7,100. What I have found in my builds, however, is that locking in Fitzpatrick is much more conducive to fitting in the Gurleys, Kamaras, and Michael Thomases of the world. But it’s much more than price that has me intrigued. The match-up seems to work in his favor as well.
Despite a date with the Panthers with a game total of 54.5, this game might be slightly overlooked in favor of Rams/Saints and Chiefs/Browns. Cam Newton is definitely the preferred QB in a vacuum so perhaps that deflates Fitzmagic’s ownership this week. In the Bucs favor this week is a match-up against a mediocre-at-best Panthers pass defense that is in the bottom 10 in opponent completion percentage, opponent completions per game, and opponent passing touchdown percentage. They also rank only 20th in DVOA pass defense in 2018.
Store those numbers in your brain and then make your way over to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Their passer rating stat lists Fitzpatrick number one on the year at 119.3. That number is better than Brees, Mahomes, Goff, everybody. That’s how being first works, you see. Stir all those facts up, dash in a little knowledge that Tampa Bay passes on almost 65% of their plays, and you are looking at some real magic about to happen.
Running Back – Isaiah Crowell ($5,700)
We need to get out of the way first that his performance last week was putrid. Pitiful. Pathetic. Whatever word you want to use. There was a thought that with almost all of the snaps coming his way, the volume would be able to overcome the tough match-up against the Bears to churn out a decent fantasy day. Didn’t happen.
But this week, the running lanes should be opening wide for the Crow. Going from the Bears (3rd ranked rush DVOA) to the Dolphins (16th) will provide countless more opportunities for positive plays than may first appear on paper. Over the past four contests, the Dolphins have allowed a staggering 5.28 yards per carry, including their recent game against Houston where Lamar Miller rushed 18 times for 133 yards. Miami has now moved into the position as the 4th worst team in terms of allowing FanDuel points to running backs – 27.7 per game.
Even with Elijah McGuire sharing the backfield, we can still expect Crowell to equal if not exceed his average of 12 rushes per game. In a game with a spread within a field goal, Crowell should not be game-scripted out and will be counted on from start to finish.
Running Baker – Chris Carson ($6,500)
I bet you can’t guess who is second behind Todd Gurley this year in average rushes per game? You would get a lot of answers to that question before someone finally settled on Chris Carson. With his 25 carries last week, he passed Ezekiel Elliott for rushes per game, and despite Russell Wilson’s hyper-efficiency passing the ball lately, the Seahawks show no signs of slowing up on their rush/pass balance.
The Seahawks are the only team with a higher percentage of rushing plays (52%) than passing plays (48%) this year, and it isn’t particularly close. The Rams are at 48% and that is partly attributed to the fact that they have Todd Gurley and are frequently playing with huge leads. Shrink the sample size to the last three games, and the Seahawks have run on almost 63% of their plays!! That is unheard of in the 2018 NFL, yet Seattle is succeeding with it.
Looking in trenches, we can see how the offensive line is contributing to Carson’s recent success with his opportunity. Seattle has jumped up to 6th in Football Outsiders’ Stuffed Rank, which measures how often a running back is stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. Positive yards + unrivaled opportunity = continued success for Carson’s fantasy contributions. The Chargers are middle of the pack in terms of rush defense and the ‘Hawks are at home as a slight favorite. Lock him in.
Wide receiver – Tre’Quan Smith ($5,100)
60 points. That’s 60. The highest game total of the season is slated to kick off Sunday afternoon and you are going to want a piece of it. The breakout hasn’t fully happened yet for Tre’Quan, but it’s certainly coming. Apart from his gem in week 5 where he busted the Redskins for two touchdowns, Smith has been relatively quiet.
Consider: five straight weeks of increased snaps, no Ted Ginn, three straight weeks of decreased snaps for Cam Meredith, the game is at home on turf. And – 60 points.
Wide Receiver – Chris Godwin ($5,900)
If you are looking for a piece of the Bucs passing game, but have committed elsewhere at QB, Godwin is a very economical way to own a share. Having seen his snap % drop to a season low in Week 4 (49%), he has been on the field for more snaps each week since – lining up 72% of the time in Week 8, trailing only Mike Evans.
To be fair, Godwin will trail Evans in just about every meaningful statistic you can uncover, but his role in the offense might just pay off this week. The Panthers’ DVOA against number one receivers this year is number four overall, and against third or fourth wide receivers, they rank third…
HOWEVER
Against #2 wide receivers, the Panthers only rank 17th. The opportunity is there this week for Godwin to beat coverage and draw the most favorable assignment. Player Profiler has him projected to be covered by Corn Elder, the 79th ranked cornerback in 2018. Hopefully the Magic finds its way to Godwin this week in a winnable match-up.