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Author: FD-GURU

Cash Plays

Shaun Livingston (3,500) – The big news coming into tonight is that the Warriors will be sitting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala. For a team that was already short without Kevin Durant, this is a bold strategy to be implementing in mid-March against a team that is only 1.5 games back from you in the standings. Nevertheless, this opens up a plethora of value options you can go with in fantasy today, and I think Shaun Livingston can easily get the job done. He should see about as much run time as he can handle and he’s as cheap as you can get, so there is basically no risk. Lock him into cash games and reach up to whatever stars you want elsewhere on the slate.

Bradley Beal ($7,600) – Beal was a cash game shooting guard I targeted last night, and boy did he not disappoint. He single handedly helped me cash with a whopping 58 fantasy points over 43 minutes against the Kings. The game did go to OT, though, so don’t expect Beal to be getting that same kind of court time tonight. However, this game does have the highest combined team total on tonight’s slate (226). This will be a high scoring game and, lucky for us, Beal’s game completely revolves around scoring. After last night’s game many will be looking to get him into their lineups, so his own % should be high. With his price remaining the same I highly recommend you do the same.

LeBron James ($11,600) – There’s just so much value elsewhere on the slate that a fade of LeBron tonight isn’t really plausible. He’s put up at least 58 fantasy points in his last 4 games, 3 of which he put up 60+. Orlando has been giving up close to 50 FP a game to opposing SF over their last 5 games and I think it’s very reasonable to assume King James will keep that streak going for them tonight in Orlando.

David Lee ($4,700) – I think Lee is another guy people will target in the GS/SA game since he has a decently low price and is coming off a great game on Wednesday when Aldridge was out. With Aldridge out again tonight, he should once again see upwards of 30 minutes of action. The Warriors have been awful against power forwards over their last 10 games, giving up an average of 49 FP a game to the position. Lee should be able to exploit their weak spots tonight and is another guy worth considering when you stack this game.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800) – Here we are again looking at Nurkic as a cash game center. It’s kind of hard not to, though, given his recent success in Rip City. With the Blazers he’s averaging 16.5 points and close to 10 rebounds a game, while also passing the ball extremely well. He racks up fantasy points in a variety of ways and has really been great over the last 2 weeks. In his last 7 games he is averaging 40 fantasy points, which, in retrospect, came mainly from his game Thursday night in which he put up 77 FP in 38 minutes of action. He gets to matchup against the Wizards tonight, a team that is in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to centers over their last 10 games.

 

GPP Plays

Ricky Rubio ($7,100) – There is too much value at the point guard position tonight for most to even acknowledge the middle priced guys, so I’m going with Ricky Rubio at $7,100 as a GPP point guard tonight against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 3rd best in the league in fantasy points allowed to point guards, but will rely solely on Matthew Dellavedova to stop him tonight as Malcolm Brogdon is expected to sit. Rubio has now posted 3 straight games of 40+ fantasy points and he should be able to keep his hot streak going tonight at the Harris Bradley Center.

Tyreke Evans ($5,900) – Tyreke started and played incredibly well in San Antonio on Wednesday, but sat last night against the Wizards. He should draw another start tonight at home against the Nuggets, a team the Kings saw in late February and a game that Evans saw 26 minutes in. It looks like Dave Joerger wants to make Evans a key piece moving forward and, if his body can handle it, should play him 30+ minutes. I think Evans is a great GPP shooting guard tonight, but make sure he is getting the start before locking him in.

Danilo Gallinari ($6,600) – Opposite of Evans tonight will be Danilo Gallinari of the Denver Nuggets. Gallinari has posted 8 straight games of at least 27 fantasy points and really has the consistency you look for in a player. Tonight, however, there are so many value options across the board that I think many will be reaching up for King James as one of their small forward options, leaving the other SF pick to be someone priced below Gallinari. However, the fact that he is getting overlooked makes him a great tournament play. Though he has been playing well over his last 8, he has only reached his $6,600 price tag once in that time frame, which will also draw people away from him. The Kings are an awful defensive team, giving up 50+ fantasy points a game to small forwards over their last 10. I don’t see Gallo having any trouble handling them tonight in Sacramento.

Gorgui Dieng ($5,600) – Dieng isn’t generally a guy that strings together a series of good games, but that is exactly what he’s done since the beginning of March. In the 4 games the Wolves have played this month he is averaging close to 27 fantasy points a game. There are some games in which Bjelica comes off the bench and has his shot working, which ends up taking minutes away from Dieng. This adds to his downside, but that is also why he can be an effective GPP play. At under 6k I don’t see too much risk with how he has been playing and he has shown he has 40+ FP upside, so he’s a guy I would consider in tournaments tonight.

Pau Gasol ($5,800) – Pau is under 6k for tonight’s matchup with the Warriors, a game in which just about every player generally worth fantasy consideration will be sitting. Gasol, however, will remain in Popovich’s starting lineup against a Golden State team that does not guard the big man well. Pau’s increase in age and decrease in athleticism has drawn people away from him over the years, but tonight may be a good night to roll with the veteran as he will be one of the guys the Spurs turn to tonight in Oakland.

Tim Hardaway Jr. didn’t disappoint us last night as he passed the 5x value he needed. Let’s keep it up here by going with Ian Clark of the Golden state Warriors. As we all know, the Warriors have decided to rest all of their starters tonight against the Spurs. I think that moves like this tend ruin the NBA and make it look bad. However, Clark is going to see a ton of usage in the starting lineup and should easily be able to pass his 5x value. You could stack him with all the other warriors backups who are starting as well tonight. Do not make the mistake of fading Clark tonight.

Last night’s pick of the day in Brandon Ingram crushed value by getting over 7x his value. This segment has been nothing but beneficial since it started. Lets keep it going tonight with Tim Hardaway Jr. of the Atlanta Hawks. Hardaway is a guy who has been very consistent for his new team and has proven to be trustworthy. I think the Knicks added insult to injury for their team by trading away this young talent. He draws a great matchup tonight at home against the Raptors. Whether Hardaway starts or comes off the bench, it doesn’t matter. He has been seeing up to 30 minutes a game on a consistent basis and has been reaching 5x value more often then not. Hardaway is a guy that I think will go a bit overlooked tonight and should be able to get up to 30 fantasy points where he needs to be.

Cash Plays

Isaiah Thomas ($9,200) – The Boston/Denver game is probably going to be a game I look to target tonight. The Boston Celtics are 9th in the NBA in total points scored and the Nuggets are 3rd worst in the league in points allowed. This will allow IT4 plenty of opportunities to score tonight in Denver. Thinking back to where Isaiah’s price was earlier in the year, it’s safe to say it has come down a considerable amount and is now at a point where we can consider him a value star option over higher priced guys like Steph Curry and John Wall. I love Thomas tonight and am going to be looking to get him into my cash game lineup.

Bradley Beal ($7,600) – Beal has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in 8 straight and has put up 40+ in 3 of them. Tonight, he get a matchup with the Sacramento Kings, a team that has given up the most fantasy points to shooting guards all season. The last time these 2 teams met, Beal dropped 42.7 fantasy points en route to a 101-95 win in Washington. Tonight’s game is in Sacramento, so the point spread is only 8. This means all of the Washington guys should be able to see their normal amount of run time. I think Beal will be able to continue his dominance against an awful Sacramento defense.

Wilson Chandler ($7,000) – Chandler’s high price point in definitely going to scare some people away from him tonight. However, Faried has already been ruled out and Gallinari and Jokic don’t look like they’re going to be able to suit up. When Jokic is out and Chandler runs the power forward position he sees a 25% usage rate and scores over 1 fantasy point for every minute he’s on the court. Considering he’ll probably see 35+ minutes tonight, it’s safe to roll with him and assume he’ll make value. Make sure to check on the status of the other Denver guys before you lock Chandler in though.

If Jokic does play:

Harrison Barnes ($6,000) – Barnes and the Mavericks are the beneficiaries of a matchup with the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The Nets are last in the league in fantasy points given up to the small forward position this year, allowing an average 47.7 a game. Though I don’t necessarily think Barnes will reach those kinds of numbers, he is in a great matchup and has been playing well of late, posting 9 straight games of at least 20 fantasy points. Though that isn’t much for a player of Barnes’ skill set, it is consistent enough for me to give him a start, especially considering his price point and great matchup against the Nets.

Aaron Gordon ($5,600) – With a rather bland night of power forward options it seems logical most people will look for some type of value option at the position, and I think Gordon is the guy most will turn to yet again. He has put up 30+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 and gets a matchup tonight against a Charlotte team that will be without Frank Kaminsky inside. Charlotte has decent numbers guarding the PF this year, but over their last 10 they are 3rd worst in the league in fantasy points given up to the position. With Gordon’s recent production it’s reasonable to assume he could potentially be priced above $6,000 in the upcoming weeks. I think it’s a smart move to take advantage of his still some-what low price tag and good matchup tonight as the Magic head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets.

Cody Zeller ($5,100) – Zeller saw an insane 42 minutes of action in Wednesday’s game against the Heat. With Kaminsky out the Hornets have been looking to Zeller to pick up some of the slack, and I that should continue tonight as they take on the Orlando Magic. He hasn’t done anything special with the increased minutes he’s seen over the last 2 games, but he hasn’t completely disappointed either. He’s put up 4 straight games of at least 20 fantasy points and you only need him to get around 25 to reach value for your lineup tonight. If he’s sees anywhere close to 40 minutes again he should have no problem doing this and should be a popular cash game pick because of it.

 

GPP Plays

Jamal Murray ($3,700) – Denver came out and said they want to play Jamal Murray more over the last few weeks. Our first look at this new tactic came Wednesday when the Nuggets took on the Wizards in Denver. Murray saw 24 minutes of action and, from what I saw, played very well against a Washington team that is actually pretty good at defending point guards. Murray could soon be a cash game play if he’s given more minutes. But given that he hasn’t proven to be consistent just yet, I think he is more of a GPP pick and definitely makes for a good play tonight against the Celtics in a fast paced game.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700) – Hardaway Jr. is in the middle of one of his inconsistent runs, but it’s a good one. He’s put up 4 straight games of at least 25 fantasy points and has had 30+ in 3 of them. Previous to this, however, he had 6 straight games of less than 20 fantasy points, making many reluctant to trust him. He gets a matchup tonight against a Raptor squad that are 3rd best in the league in fantasy points given up to shooting guards, so he’ll have his work cut out for him. If he has his shot working, though, he could be the reason you cash in tournaments.

Shabazz Muhammad ($3,700) – Muhammad started at shooting guard for the Timberwolves on Wednesday and put up 23.2 FP across 26 minutes of action. For his price point, he’s a great fantasy option. However, if Brandon Rush starts over him tonight it will definitely draw minutes and production away from Shabazz, so make sure to see if he’s starting before locking him into any of your GPP lineups

Thaddeus Young (($4,900) – Thad Young’s price is down under $5,000 for tonight’s tilt with the Bucks. He has had a tough return from the all-star break, putting up 16 fantasy points or less in 5 of his last 7 games. His last game, however, he played 34 minutes and put up 29.6 FP, looking like the Thaddeus Young we saw earlier this season. You never know what kind of player will show up when you roll with him, making him a risky tournament play. The Bucks are pretty average against the power forward so tonight may be a good night to roll with Young and hope he can carry the same momentum he had last game into Milwaukee for today’s game.

Greg Monroe ($6,300) – Most of the attention for the center position tonight will more than likely not be directed at the middle priced guys, which is great news for Greg Monroe. Thon Maker continues to start over him, but by the end of the game Monroe generally comes away with more minutes. Jason Kidd varies his minutes (could be anywhere between 20-35), so it’s hard to know when to go with Monroe. The Bucks just had an off day and Monroe hasn’t seen 30+ minutes in 3 straight games, so I think he is in a great position to succeed tonight against an Indiana team that is in the bottom 10 in fantasy points given up to opposing centers over their last 5 games.

 

 

Cash Plays

Damian Lillard ($8,800) – With Russell Westbrook’s price tag still over $13,000 for his matchup tonight against the Spurs I believe many will look for another high-priced option at point guard. Though Bledsoe and Kyrie are both priced above him, Lillard’s matchup against the 76ers is hard to resist. Philadelphia has given up 52.9 FP to point guards over their last 10 games and Lillard is in a great position to reach that average tonight in Portland.

Devin Booker ($6,400) – The shooting guard position is rather limited tonight and I expect Booker to be heavily owned given his matchup with the Lakers. The Suns and Lakers both play awful defense, which can be seen by the fact that they both give up 111 points per game to their opposition. This game is projected to be very high scoring because of this and the fast-paced action should bode well for the 20-year-old shooting guard. He should easily flirt with 30+ fantasy points and reach value at home tonight.

Brandon Ingram ($4,000) – Ingram is proving to be more consistent over his last 6 games, averaging between 19.5 and 24.2 fantasy points in 5 of them. For his price point, that is great production, and he should be able to keep the ball rolling tonight against a Phoenix Suns team that is giving up the 2nd most points in the league. Ingram will probably see 35+ minutes again tonight, giving him ample opportunities to grab fantasy points for your team.

Dario Saric ($7,400) – There are actually some good options tonight at the PF position, but one of my cash game picks is more than likely going to be Saric if I can fit him in. The Portland Trail Blazers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing power forwards all year and Dario should be able to easily reach his $7,400 price tag against them. Saric has put up at least 33 FP in 10 of his last 11 games and should be a popular pick tonight because of the small slate and his recent production.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,500) – Nurkic is likely to be highly owned yet again given the fact that the Blazers will be matching up with a 76ers team that has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing centers. What makes this matchup even more tantalizing, however, is that Philadelphia has given up close to 60 FP a game a game to the center position over their last 5 games, which is 6 more points than the next closest team. Nurkic’s price came down a little after his last game (which was still 30.6 FP), and he should have a very high own % as the center with the most upside tonight. Lock him in and watch him take control.

 

GPP Plays

 Reggie Jackson ($5,200) – I saw Reggie Jackson completely take control of the game against the Chicago Bulls on Monday, putting up 26 points and 6 assists to go toward a 36.4 fantasy point night. With inconsistency from KCP and Marcus Morris, I think it could be up to Reggie Jackson to try and help keep the Pistons in the game yet again. The Cavs actually give up 50.4 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards so Reggie has all the pieces to put together a good stat line tonight, it’s just about whether or not he can get the job done.

J.J. Reddick ($4,100) – With all the injuries to the Clippers this year we were able to witness Reddick step up when Los Angeles needed him. With everyone back and healthy now, a good fantasy performance from him completely rides on whether or not he gets enough shots in a game. He doesn’t score fantasy points in a lot of other ways so he’s really a GPP play most of the time. That is the case once again tonight as he goes up against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to shooting guards over their last 4 games so Reddick is in a great position to produce tonight in Memphis.

Justin Anderson ($3,900) – I watched this kid play a little bit last week and was truly impressed by what he could do on the court. He was a very physical player and really had a nose for the ball. Given a choice out of the 76ers forwards, most are going to turn to Dario Saric tonight, but I wouldn’t keep Anderson out of mind. He’s been fitting in nicely with his new team, putting up 29 fantasy points twice in his last 3 games. He gets to matchup tonight against a Portland team that is awful at guarding the forward positions. At his price point I think he carries significant upside and is definitely a guy I’m looking to get into my GPP lineups.

Tobias Harris ($5,400) – Harris has strung together 4 straight games of at least 27 fantasy points, which, by coincidence, is exactly what he needs to reach 5x value tonight. He’ll be squaring off with a Cleveland team that is generally great at defending the power forward position, but have struggled as of late, giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to the position over their last 5 games with no Kevin Love. I see Harris keeping his streak of good games going tonight when the Cavs come into town.

Tristan Thompson ($5,800) – Thompson has cooled down since the all-star break after a phenomenal start to the month of February, a time in which he was putting up 30 FP regularly. Tonight he’ll face off with a Detroit Pistons team that is good at defending the center position. However, Thompson is a very physical center that prefers boards over points. With a matchup against Andre Drummond he is likely to be around the rim tonight, much like he was in their first two meeting when he averaged 12 rebounds against them. With his price now under 6k I think it’s safe to roll with Thompson and hope he brings the same upside we saw from him in early February.

 

 

 

 

Millsap just fell short of his 5x value last night but still put up a solid amount of fantasy points. Tonight, I’m going to target a projected high scoring and fast paced game with the Lakers vs. Suns. The pick of the day is Brandon Ingram. The Lakers seem to realize that this season is over and their best decision is to give their future a lot of run and time on the court. Ingram is still developing into the NBA and shows his inexperienced play, but with his low salary and high minutes, it’s tough to pass on him. His 4K price tag means he needs 20 fantasy points to reach his 5x value. I see him getting in the high 20’s tonight while playing around 35 minutes. Lock him in and watch the young talent reach value for you.

Last night was just another night where the pick of the day reached at least 5x value with Alan Williams. He was able to get enough points, even while fouling out of the game with a good portion of the 4th quarter left. Tonight, I’m targeting a higher salary guy in Paul Millsap of the Atlanta Hawks. He draws a dreamy matchup tonight at home against the Nets. The line is 10.5 here so I’m not overly worried about a blowout. Even if the game blew out, Millsap will need to produce for that offense in order to get ahead. He could still reach value in three quarters. Tonight, for Millsap to reach 5x value, he needs around 40 fantasy points where I see him achieving without too much difficulty.

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