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This game has the highest total on tonight’s slate at 11.5, and both teams should see plenty of opportunity to score some runs. Arlington is like a Coors Field Jr. This park is always hot and balls always fly, and when there are bad pitchers facing off, it’s the best of both worlds. Try to get as much exposure to this game as possible.


The Astros are one of the biggest favorites, if not the biggest favorite that I have seen all year long. They are -420 favorites at home against Edwin Jackson of the Tigers. Jackson has a 8.62 ERA and is just bouncing all over the league until his below-average career comes to an end. His MLB starts are coming to a close sooner than later and we need to take advantage of it.


The Twins are setting offensive records this year and should be able to contribute more to it against Ivan Nova of the White Sox tonight at home. Nova has been great over his last handful of starts, but will be put to the test more than ever with this matchup on the road. The Twins are big favorites in this one and see a 9.5 o/u.

Tonight is shaping up to be a huge offensive kind of night. Pitching is as limited as i’ve seen in a while on tonight’s main slate. Lets look at some teams we should be targeting.


The Yankees are arguably the best team in the league this year and have been plagued by injury the entire season. They draw a great matchup at home tonight against Adam Plutko of the Indians. Plutko has a 4.68 ERA and should find himself struggling throughout. This game has the second highest over/under from vegas at 11.


The Twins find themselves in a great spot on the road tonight against Pedro Payano of the Rangers. This game features the highest total of the night at 12 and should consist of a lot of runs scored. We all know Arlington is a big time hitters ballpark and the Twins can really light it up at times.


I also love the Rangers in this one as well. As I said above, this Twins/Rangers game has the biggest projected total on the slate and should consist of a ton of runs. Texas is in a great matchup here as well against the lefty, Devin Smeltzer. Try to get as much exposure to this game as possible.

It’s great to be back and we have a very busy day with multiple MLB slates. Let’s look at some offenses in good spots on tonight’s main slate.

Dodgers (-285 favorite, 8 o/u)

The Dodgers are in a great spot to put up some runs tonight, on the road against Elieser Hernandez of the Marlins. Hernandez has a 4.94 ERA and is the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel tonight. Expect him to run into some trouble tonight against that impressive Dodgers lineup.

Braves (-136 favorite, 10 o/u)

The Braves should be able to do some damage at home tonight against the lefty, Steven Matz. Matz has been decent over his last handful of starts, but he still holds a 4.49 ERA and has a tough matchup in Atlanta where balls seem to fly. All right-handed Braves hitters look good tonight.

Cardinals (-130 favorite, 10 o/u)

The Cardinals are looking to tag Brad Keller of the Royals tonight and should be able to pull it off. Keller has been pretty decent as of late but still has allowed a combined 23 hits over his last 3 stars. The Cardinals are favored in this one and stay fairly cheap across DFS platforms.

Red Sox/Yankees

This series is looking like all offense and no pitching. Vegas has this game as the highest o/u tonight, which isn’t the least bit surprising. Find your way to get some exposure to this one, as the Sox just put up 19 runs yesterday.


The Twins have possibly had the most surprising season out of any team. The bats have been hot all year and I expect that to continue tonight in Chicago against Dylan Cease. Cease has a 6.19 ERA and should really struggle once again, with a very difficult match-up on his hands.


The Mariners just put up 10 runs last night and should be able to ride that momentum into tonight at home with another great matchup against Daniel Norris of the Tigers. Norris has a 5 ERA and hardly goes deep into games without giving up handfuls of runs. All righty Mariners bats are heavily in play here.

Col @ Was and SDP @ NYM seem to be the two games with the most concerning rain. As of right now, they should be able to play both games without a cancelation. Let’s look at a few teams worth a stack tonight.

Nationals (-230 favorite, 9 o/u)

The Nationals are destined to put up a healthy amount of runs tonight against Peter Lambert of the Rockies. Lambert has over a 6 ERA and could really struggle tonight on the road in Washington. Just make sure that the rain forecast doesn’t get any worse closer to first pitch.

Braves (-220 favorite, 9.5 o/u)

The Braves are the second biggest favorite tonight right behind the Nats. They should have no issue hitting the lefty, Danny Duffy at home tonight. Duffy carries a 4.5 ERA into this and Atlanta has been playing as more of a hitters ballpark all year. I love all Braves righties in this game (and Freddie Freeman because he hits any human he wants).

D-Backs (-194 favorite, 9 o/u)

I love the Diamondbacks again tonight. They face the righty Dylan Bundy of the O’s here and should be able to duplicate what they did last night. Bundy has over a 5 ERA and got busted for 7 earned runs in an inning against the Rays last time. He also has been on the IL for 10 days so he isn’t as sharp as they come, coming into this game. D-Backs could do some serious damage at home here.

Yankees (-123 Favorites, 11 o/u)

The Yanks find themselves as a favorite in the highest total game on tonight’s slate. They have a matchup against Martin Perez of the Twins who has a 4.1 ERA. The Twins also aren’t a a bad team to stack in this one either because they aren’t huge underdogs by any means and have a good matchup against Sabathia. Try to get a good amount of exposure to this game.

Astros (-230 Favorites, 9 o/u)

The Astros are massive favorites at home tonight and see a juicy matchup against Homer Bailey of the Athletics. Bailey has a 4.69 ERA and consistently gives up 5 or more hits every start. Pitching away and against one of the best teams in the MLB is one of the harder things to do for Bailey.

Diamondbacks (-260 Favorites, 9 o/u)

The D-Backs are the biggest favorites on tonight’s slate, with a matchup against Aaron Brooks of the Orioles. Brooks has a 4.69 ERA and doesn’t top 3 innings on any start. The Orioles will be doing a lot bullpen stuff this game and it most likely won’t pan out for them here. The Diamondbacks are my favorite team to stack tonight.

We come into this Friday with no Coors game, no real weather concerns, and a lot of good hitting match-ups… How lovely!

Red Sox (-250 favorites, 9.5 o/u)

The Sox are expected to put the hurting on John Means and the Orioles tonight at Camden Yards. Means hasn’t been bad this year, but as of late, he has given up 14 hits and 8 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Camden Yards is a hitters park and the Red Sox are a hitters team. The proponents of this game line up for a good amount of Sox runs.

Yankees (-220 favorites, 11 o/u)

The Yanks find themselves as a heavy favorite at home and a part of a massive total tonight. They should have no issue generating runs off of Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. Freeland has a 7.39 ERA on the year and is priced as the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel tonight. Expect nothing but disaster for him and the Rockies tonight at the hitters paradise of New York.

Indians (-260 favorites, 9.5 o/u)

The Indians are another huge favorite tonight at home against the newly acquired Mike Montgomery of the Royals. Montgomery has seen nothing but bullpen work while on the Cubs this year and isn’t used to a heavy inning load as a starter. He should struggle tonight and the Royals could find themselves in a bullpen game before the first hour of this game is over tonight. Look for right-handed Indians bats here.


Message me on twitter @fd_guru if you want season bundles for the rest of the MLB regular season.


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