Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

We have a very interesting five game slate on tap for tonight, primarily because of the defensive-minded, grinding aspect of many of the teams on the schedule. According to projected pace, only two teams are projected for a higher pace than their season average. Orlando sees a mild 0.8 bump against Miami (and their 15^th ranked defense), with the only significant increase attached to Phoenix, projected to have a 4.4 bump up in pace. The Suns host the Kings and their 27^th ranked defense, with only power forward listed as the position where the Kings defend at even an average rate.

Slates like this set up as perfect tournament plays in my opinion. One on hand, you can game-stack Suns/Kings. The Suns are not much of a defensive obstacle themselves – ranked 25^th overall this season, so there should be myriad combinations of ways to stack players like Ayton, Fox, Hield, Cauley-Stein, Jackson, etc. The fact that players like Devin Booker and TJ Warren will likely miss this game only helps matters. Throughout the day, value should open up all over this game allowing any permutation one might desire if mass multi-entering.

On the flip side, there will be so much concentration and focus on this game – which also includes a slate-high 223.5 total – that other players in positive game scripts should go under-owned.

For example, The Pacers match up against the Bulls who have the worst defense of any team going tonight and the game has a low 208.5 implied total. While the team itself doesn’t see a pace bump, individual match-ups (like the one below) should be in ideal situations. An even more contrarian play might be to mine match-ups in the Spurs/Jazz game. This is not your grandfather’s Spurs team as they rank 24^th in total defense and 24^th against shooting guards. Donovan Mitchell at home interest you? It should, Kawhi Leonard isn’t walking through that door.

Let’s take a peek at who other strong plays on the night might be:

Deandre Ayton ($6,800) – Ayton at $6,800 in this match-up feels like stealing. He is the second lowest priced starting center in the entire slate and is in the best possible spot against the Kings 26^th ranked defense against centers. Add in the fact that the Suns will be missing two of their top three players in terms of usage rate, and the offense in this fast-paced game should flow through Ayton and Josh Jackson.

The last time Ayton was this cheap on FanDuel he hit 7x value in a much tougher match-up against Andre Drummond, so we have an idea of what his ceiling can be as long as he stays out of foul trouble.

Domantas Sabonis ($7,700) – We know by now that not all bench players are made equally. Some, like Sabonis, play a starter’s role without their name being on the PA when starting lineups are announced. Sabonis laps the field of bench players in terms of fantasy points per game (32.4) and fantasy points per minute (1.31), and he has clearly outplayed Myles Turner thru the course of the season despite the fact that Turner is still playing more minutes per game.

Against the Bulls, Sabonis will either match up against Jabari Parker – who is ranked 91^st out of 92 eligible power forwards in defensive real plus-minus – or Lauri Markkannen, who is only in his second game back from a prolonged injury. Start him with confidence.

C.J. McCollum ($7,100) – McCollum’s usage rate has risen recently to an elite 25.2%. In fact, there is only one instance in his past 10 games where McCollum has not had at least a 23% usage rate, correlating with an eight-game stretch where he has hit 4x value every night.

Playing at home against the Mavericks and Wesley Matthews’ 75^th ranked defensive real plus-minus, this is a potential 6x game for CJ. Revenge games typically apply on the offensive end from what I can tell, so look for Matthews to maybe take the defensive side of the floor off so he can focus on burning his old team.

I don’t want much for Christmas most years, so wish lists are generally a difficult exercise for me. I literally asked my parents for a new oven this year, so just know that this is the level of creativity we are dealing with. Could I use some new pants for work? Yes. Could I use some socks? Sure. Do I like gift cards? Of course. So I can generally be happy with very simple things. This holiday season, there are a few simple DFS items that I would like to wish for. Nothing flashy – just your run-of-the-mill clairvoyance when it comes to making my lineups:

1. I wish to know when the cheap chalk tight end is going to drop a zero as opposed to getting a simple, not too much to ask for 4-6 points. Looking at you Matt LaCosse and James O’Shaughnessey.
2. I wish to know when exactly the middling QBs are going to run all over the place, adding an RB2 line to their passing totals. Looking at you Mitchell Trubisky and Josh Allen.
3. I wish I knew when defense actually mattered. Like, does it or not? And if the answer is sometimes, well then get out of here. Looking at you Julio Jones and Andrew Luck.
4. I wish to find a cheap defense some week and actually have them produce at least some kind of pressure and/or turnovers. Looking at you Tennessee and Green Bay.
5. I wish to know when the stud RBs will have career days so I can avoid overwhelmingly fading them. Looking at you Christian McCaffery and Philip Lindsay.

And I guess most of all I wish to know when performances from stars or out-of-nowhere role players are predictive. Let’s try to do our best on that right now…

Josh Allen – 231 Passing Yards/2 Tds/2 INTs, 9 Rushes/135 Rushing Yards
Zay Jones – 9 Targets/4 Receptions/67 Receiving Yards/2 TDs

We are getting a two-for-one special with this one. I am in a large 2-QB season-long league where I picked up Allen off waivers a couple weeks ago just to have a warm body going into the playoffs should something happen to my starters. Have I played him those two weeks? No. Have I won those two weeks? Not yet, and week 13 is looking dicey.  Look, we know not to expect another 135 rushing yards again. Allen’s rushing yards were the sixth highest by a QB since 1980 (five of top eight Vick, btw), so it is the definition of an outlier. But the point is that he is running. Allen has 22 rushing attempts the past two weeks, and that is especially significant when you consider he had 35 rushing attempts in the six games before he was hurt. When no one else on the offensive side has any talent, you just do your thing Allen, I ain’t mad at you. With this game, Allen is averaging 48.6 rush yards per game, giving him a floor of more than a touchdown before the passing even begins to count. And the passing hasn’t been half bad since he returned. Allen has three touchdowns through the air in two games, which is more than he had in the six games before injury. The rushing floor combined with increased passing equity and production leaves me to believe they may be unleashing Allen to show what they got with their first round pick.

Jones, on the other hand, is the model of inconsistency. In his past seven games, Jones has the following fantasy point totals: 22.7, 0, 19.3, 3.8, 8.5, 4.2, 11. So much good and so much bad. The same pattern (or lack of one) pops in target share as well: 36%, 5%, 37%, 21%, 16%, 35%, 18%. Those games with 22 and 19 FanDuel points are so enticing, and look so pretty in the box score, but don’t overlook the zero sandwiched in between them. You are literally getting floor and ceiling in consecutive weeks, and predicting which you will get is about as much fun as a Bills tailgate.

Verdict: Allen – Take It, Jones – Leave It

Dion Lewis – 6 Rushes/36 Rushing Yards, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/-2 Receiving Yards

Yes, the same player who has given us three games this year with more than 60 receiving yards just shoved a negative-two in our faces. Remember when Lewis was the chalk after the massive game against the Cowboys in primetime? Lewis has 50 total receiving yards in four games since that time. After peaking with 20 carries against New England, he has seen games with ten, seven, and six carries. With decreased opportunity and an incredibly low touchdown equity, Lewis has pushed himself out of any sort of reliable role for DFS players. For all of the talk about how dynamic a tandem he and Derrick Henry would be this year, it’s Henry who is carving out the most secure role. Lewis has only one receiving and rushing touchdown on the year while Henry now has five TDs. Henry is getting every close goal-line opportunity and Lewis has been relegated to a between-the-20s back.

Verdict: Take It

Jarvis Landry – 9 Targets/6 Receptions/103 Receiving Yards/0 TDs

Jarvis Landry, we hardly knew ye. It has been a while since we have seen Landry with this many targets in a game. In fact, you have to go back to October to find a game with at least nine. In weeks 1-8, Landry missed out on double digit targets only once in eight games. Since then – none. We don’t need some deep statistical analysis to determine that this new coaching regime under Freddie Kitchens is moving in other directions. They are featuring Nick Chubb more, they are opening up the passing game for Baker Mayfield, and they are looking to be less predictable. In those first eight games, it was a lock that Landry would overwhelm the passing looks. He had one game with less than a 23.8% target share in that time. Since the coaching change, 23.8% share is his highest mark, with a low of 16% in Week 9. Before Sunday, Landry’s targets and his air yards had been in a free-fall for five straight weeks, and it seems that the only reason for the uptick in this match-up was the early 20-point hole the Browns dug and they spent the second half trying to claw back. I imagine the Browns – already playing for next year – are going to spend a considerable amount of time getting Chubb, Njoku, and Calloway their reps for next year. Landry is reliable, he is consistent. They know what he is – and that’s not good for DFS.

Verdict – Leave It