Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

Is it just me or does there seem to be a lot of blowouts in the NBA this year? I guess it started happening last year in the playoffs and you started to see pieces popping up like “With all these blowouts in the NBA playoffs, will fans stop paying attention?” Moving past the hyperbole of that nonsense, I wanted to look at some numbers to determine if there are more blowouts this year compared to the NBA’s recent past.

Heading to Pro Basketball Reference, I was able to research the past 20 years of Margin of Victory, or the aggregation of each team’s point differential. Going back in that time-frame, I discovered that the teams with the worst margin of victory – the teams that lose by the most – are as follows:

1. 2012 Charlotte Bobcats: -13.91 Margin of Victory (so their average game was a 14-point loss)
2. 2019 Phoenix Suns: -11.86
3. 2000 LA Clippers: -11.52
4. 2019 Chicago Bulls: -11.04
5. 2014 Philadelphia 76ers: -10.45
6. 2016 Philadelphia 76ers: -10.23
7. 2019 Atlanta Hawks: -10.19

It strikes me as quite odd (although not surprising) that three of the seven worst margins of victory in the last 20 years come from this season. Granted, there is still a lot of basketball left to be played so these could change over the last 2/3 of this season, but it’s clear there are a number of teams this year that are taking the concept of losing big to new levels.

This can likely be attributed to a number of things, but number one on that list has to be intentional tanking. The team that shows up twice on this list, the 2014-2016 76ers truly redefined losing and its importance in the NBA, so more teams are taking up the mantle of doing whatever they can to avoid the mediocre middle. Being the worst secures the best chances at a top lottery pick. Being the best assures you the best chance at a championship, so there is no incentive to finishing 8^th in your conference, and there REALLY is no incentive to finishing 9^th.

So how do we handle situations with all these bad teams (the Cavs and Knicks also have large negative margins of victory)? Should we be afraid of more blowouts and their minutes impact on our DFS lineups? There isn’t too much data specific to DFS, but based on what I can find, the answer is “maybe.”

Based on this research from games a decade ago by Hoop-ball.com, unless a spread reaches 12 or more points in a given game, there really is no indication that a blowout is likely. In the chart that compares game outcome to point spread, you will see that the highest likelihood for any finish is within 5-8 points. That rule stands firm for all games with spreads at 12 or below. Past 12 is when you start seeing game finishes that frequently creep past 13 points.

Games with 12-point spreads are rare and typically match up the absolute best in the association with the absolute worst, so it makes logical sense that this would be the case. In the end, you shouldn’t worry too much about spreads unless the number starts creeping up into the teens.

Tonight’s slate features four games all within a 7-point spread, so no worries here:

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets – 225 Total
’18-’19 Pace:
Los Angeles Lakers – 4th
Houston Rockets – 29^th

Josh Hart ($4,500) – With the absence of Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram, hart is seeing his minutes per game soar. He has averaged 35 minutes per game over his last three, and assuming he logs around that number tonight, he should feast against a Rockets team ranked 27^th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards. Hart’s numbers don’t look great in three of his last four contests, but he faced the spurs in two of those games, who currently rank 6^th in defense against shooting guards. On a larger slate, Hart wouldn’t necessarily be on our radar, but if continues to soak up minutes, the opportunity should be there tonight.

Eric Gordon ($5,100) – Recently inserted into the starting lineup, Gordon should see an increase in minutes and usage beyond the solid numbers he was producing off the bench. With Carmelo Anthony a persona non grata and James Ennis on the shelf for a couple week, only Gerald Greed is lurking to steal backup small forward minutes. This is relevant when you consider that among small forwards on the slate, Gordon sees more usage than all players at his position not named LeBron or DeRozan. The Lakers rank 19^th against the position defensively, a sign that LeBron is not the defensive force of old or they are rotating over other players to guard that position. With a massive pace bump in this game, Gordon should find plenty of opportunities to get his shot.

Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs – 222 Total
’18-’19 Pace:
Los Angeles Clippers – 9^th
San Antonio Spurs – 24^th

Rudy Gay ($6,400) – I don’t really think I will full-on recommend anyone from the Clippers in this game as they are playing their third game in four nights and get a massive pace drop facing he Spurs. But San Antonio, on the other hand, sees the second largest pace bump of the night and faces a team ranked only 23^rd in defense against the power forward position. Strangely, both Danilo Gallinari and Tobias Harris are listed as small forwards on the NBA’s real plus-minus but Harris ranks 37^th and Gallinari ranks 50^th among their peers. But promoting Gay might just be more a product of what San Antonio needs out of him. They need someone with Gay’s height and length to guard Harris all night. Ranked 12^th in the NBA in minutes per game, Harris should be on the floor for as much as he can handle tonight, meaning San Antonio should be looking to Gay for at least 32 minutes (something he has accomplished in three of his last six games). At his average 1.03 fantasy points per minute, it could be a big night.

Tonight will be the first night that the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets have met since the “fight game” on October 20th where Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram all received suspensions as a result. Since then, the Rockets season has been in a downhill tumble. They are currently 12-15 which makes them the 14th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference, the only team behind them being the 4-24 Suns. Meanwhile, with Rando and Ingram injured and James averaging the most points per game since the 09-10 season while playing on the fewest average minutes of his career, the Lakers have improved to 17-10 after a slow start. Currently they are only 1.0 game behind the Western Conference leading Warriors and Nuggets. In this contest the 5.5 point underdog Lakers will look to stay hot on the road because despite the Rockets inability to pick up wins, James Harden is still averaging 30 points and 8.8 assists per game.

With Clint Capela in an offensive slump with only 12 or 13 points in his last three games and James Harden a very expensive fantasy pick, Chris Paul ($8,200/38.02 FPPG) offers fantasy players an alternative. Even though he only scored 11 points in his last game, his passing and assists helped propel him to his first triple double of the year, finishing with him scoring 50.2 fantasy points. Despite his inconsistency in shooting, his passing and rebounds have certainly stayed steady so he still offers fantasy players the potential for high fantasy points especially if he can get his scoring back on track.

Kyle Kuzma ($7,900/29.91 FPPG) certainly seems to have been on a streak lately. In the Lakers last game against Miami, Kuzma played for 39 minutes and scored 33 points, the second highest points total for his season. Since the beginning of December he has averaged 25.0 points per game and has four games where he has played above 30 minutes. He also has above 39.0 fantasy points in every one of his December matchups, making him a solid choice for players that are looking for a value pick that has lots of potential and a high ceiling for fantasy points. 

The landscape on the court is much different for this game than the last time these two teams faced off. The Lakers have picked up the pace and improved a lot since their 0-2 record at the time and the Rockets season is in a downward slump. In this Western Conference matchup, fantasy players will be looking less for brawls and more to take advantage of Lebron’s average points being the highest in 8 years, Kyle Kuzma’s current streak, James Harden’s 30 point average and Chris Paul’s high assists and rebounds. 

Tonight the Brooklyn Nets take on the Philadelphia 76ers in Philly. Even with Jimmy Butler doubtful due to a groin injury, the 19-9 76ers will look to extend their 14-1 home win streak against the 10-19 Nets. Even though Brooklyn is tied for the most clutch games in the league, they haven’t been able to finish what they start. They are only 5-12 even when they have brought the margin to five points or fewer in the game’s final five minutes. Philly will also look to take advantage offensively of a Nets team that is only ranked 21st in the league in defensive rating. 

Even with the many problem the Nets are facing in their season they still have some players with decent fantasy potential, especially with Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,000/27.29 FPPG). The last time these two teams met, Dinwiddie came off the bench for 28 minutes and scored 31 points, including going 4-5 from the three point line. He might not be the highest scorer, but so far this season for fantasy players he has been a pretty consistent pick for those looking for a player to put up an easy 20-30 fantasy points 

On the 76ers side, Ben Simmons ($9,200/41.12 FPPG) provides a rather expensive but high fantasy scoring potential. With an average of 15.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game, he definitely appears to be a solid choice against an anemic Brooklyn defense. He has some very solid fantasy achievements so far this season, with many 40 and 50 fantasy point games and a season high game of 64.3 FP. Overall he has high caliber potential for fantasy players looking to take advantage of this matchup. 

Tonight also offers a late night fantasy matchup between the NBA’s elite. The 19-9 Golden State Warriors, who are the top team in the Western Conference and a strong favorite to make it to the NBA finals will take on the Eastern Conference leading 22-7 Toronto Raptors in Oakland. The Golden State Warriors are ranked number one for offensive rating while the Raptors are in the third place spot, only 1.2 points behind. This game will be fast paced, high scoring and have early implications for deciding who is the dominant team in the league. 

For fantasy players looking for an affordable yet high performing player for Golden State, Klay Thompson ($6,800/33.47 FPPG) is a good option. In 11 of his last 12 games, he has put up 20 or more points per game. In his last game he struggled from the two but made 51.7% of his shots from past the three point line. His fantasy performance has been been filled with consistent 30 fantasy point and above performances, including a 30.1 FP performance the last time the Warriors took on the Raptors.

With Kawhi Leonard questionable due to a bruised right hip, Kyle Lowry ($7,600/36.61 FPPG) will look to follow his high-caliber performance yesterday against the Clippers. In that matchup he recovered from a zero point game on Sunday, putting up 21 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists. He has struggled some this season but hopefully for the Raptors and tonight’s fantasy players he will keep up with the 41.5. FP he scored against the Clippers and stay away from his dismal 16.5 FP performance against the Bucks. 

With the leading team in the East traveling to take on the leading team in the West, fantasy players have a huge amount of choices for top tier fantasy players. Whether they want to spend high or look for a value player, the players they choose and the two teams they play for are bound to put up a competitive and exciting matchup.