The picks and lineups on FD Guru have been basically on fire lately. If you have not checked it out already, look at some optimal projected plays in the FD Guru Projector Oven. For only four credits, you will get some of the strongest plays of the days, projected points, and a short summary of the appealing match-up. Giannis is a fan of the Oven. I heard he uses it.

Let’s hope we can keep that streak going tonight as we check out some interesting plays from a pace perspective.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards
228.5 Total
’18-’19 Pace:
76ers – 7^th
Wizards – 9^th

Joel Embiid ($10,800) – Yes, these two teams played just last night with Philly blowing Washington out. Yes, Embiid disappointed relative to salary in that game with only 38 FD points. But tonight should be a different story. The two teams move to Washington for the game, and have a much tighter point spread with the 76ers as only 3.5-point favorites. They were up to nine point favorites in some spots last night. With a closer game, Embiid should get his full allotment of minutes against a weak frontcourt.

In last night’s blowout, Embiid only played 23 minutes. With his 38 points, we can calculate he scored at a rate of 1.65 FD points per minute, a number actually .11 higher than his season average. If he had his normal 32-36 minutes, we could have been staring at a 55-60 point night that would have made owners much happier. I have no concerns rolling The Process back out there tonight against a team ranked 25^th against centers on the season.

Jeff Green ($5,700) – With Otto Porter banged up again tonight (he is questionable as of this writing), I am going to ride the Green hot streak for one more game. He has scored more than 20 FD points in each of his last six games. Despite also being a byproduct of the blowout last night, Green had a 16% usage and .75 FD points per minute. As with Embiid, if Green hits his 34-minute average from his last five games, he scores 26 on the night instead of just 20.

Whichever combination of Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala or Jonah Bolden the Sixers deploy tonight, it really isn’t going to slow down Green. The 76ers are 21^st on the season in defending power forwards as they have no had no real defensive answers from the revolving door of bigs next to Embiid.

Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
219.5 Total
’18-’19 Pace:
Suns – 15^th
Mavericks – 11^th

Josh Jackson ($4,800) – Yes, he is going to be Josh Chalkson again tonight, but this price is just way too low for what type of opportunity Jackson has with Devin Booker listed as doubtful tonight. It’s not often we see a player in this situation priced lower on FanDuel than on DraftKings, but Jackson is $400 more on DK tonight, so jumping on the value before the price goes up is the smart play on tonight’s slate.

Jackson had a decent showing last night with over with 30 FD points in just 31 minutes, but the usage is the most important takeaway from last night’s showdown with the Kings. Jackson had a usage rate of 22.6%, a number he has beaten only once in his last 11 games. He also played more than 31 minutes for just the second time since mid-December, getting plenty of run with Booker on the shelf. Assuming Kelly Oubre, Jr. doesn’t have another career game like he did last night (his 48 FD points were a season-high), there are going to be ample minutes and shots for Jackson, Warren and Ayton in a potentially high-scoring affair.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,800) – I don’t know what more I can say than just play centers against the Suns. They are dead last in the league against the center position as Ayton has just not found his ability to slow down his counterparts, and the pattern is repeating game after game.

In their past eight games, centers have the following points/rebounds numbers against the Suns:

15/7 – Willie Cauley-Stein
19/6 – Willy Hernangomez
18/13 – Marcin Gortat
42/18 – hello, Joel Embiid
5/4 – Kevon Looney
23/8 – Nikola Jokic
12/13 – Steven Adams
22/13 – Nikola Vucevic

So unless you are Kevon Looney, you are going to have a strong game against Phoenix

Against the Lakers – ranked 16^th against centers – Jordan dominated on Monday for 42.8 points despite only a 13% usage rate. His rebounding and block numbers are just so strong against weak frontcourts, and he is chipping in 2.1 assists per game just for good measure.

BONUS IN-PERSON RECOMMENDATION

Eric Bledsoe ($6,700) – I will be attending this game tonight so I can say I was at the game where Harden and the Greek Freak each scored 60 points against one another. At least that is what I am expecting. Looking beyond the two studs, however, we can find some strong plays in this game with a 226 total and 1.5-point spread.

Bledsoe is the ninth most expensive PG on the slate – priced $800 above the infamous Raul Neto. I don’t get it. Bledsoe’s usage has been at least 21% for five straight games and he has a match-up against the Rockets ranked 18^th on the year against opposing point guards. Keep in mind that about 85% of that number is comprised of games with Chris Paul at point – playing opposite Austin Rivers is a whole other ballgame. Of all 94 point guards in the NBA, Rivers is ranked 83^rd in defensive real plus-minus.

Bledsoe has one game in his last 14 where he has failed to reach 20 FD points, and now we get him at his lowest salary of the season. As long as Giannis doesn’t have a 45% usage rate in this game, I can see Bledsoe reaching a massive profit tonight.