Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.
I may be the only person you can find who count misuse of idioms in their list of pet peeves. When you have a group of words that has a deeper meaning than the surface definition of those words, appropriate phrasing is key to making sure one can understand the meaning that could not otherwise be deduced.
Case in point. We hear the phrase “can’t have your cake and eat it too” all the time. When I hear it phrased that way, I immediately think “Why not?” In what world does it make sense to have a piece of cake and not be able to eat it? Is there a law against eating it? Is your stomach incapable of handling a slice of cake that size? What is preventing you from HAVING CAKE AND THEN EATING IT?
There is a simple explanation. The phrase originally was “can’t eat your cake and have it too.” This takes the phrase to another level of meaning and implies a fundamental truth about so many things. It becomes more about choices and our preferences than could ever be explained in the misconstrued phrasing. Owning a piece of cake implies one of two things: I can eat it now and be satisfied immediately, or I could save it and let it satiate some future hunger or craving. We can’t have both, so which is the more powerful motivation? Which pull is stronger in the part of our brain that regulates hunger and cravings?
In NBA DFS we are literally faced with choices every day. High stake or low stakes, main slate or short slate, stars/scrubs or balanced approach? Locking in Anthony Davis or Lebron James in your lineup tonight implies a type of choice, namely that the balance of the lineup is by definition diluted and riskier because of the percentage of salary the superstars require. So as with the hypothetical cake, weigh these decisions carefully in terms of how they impact roster builds. Is downgrading to DeAndre Bembry worth it to roster Davis or James? You likely can’t eat your James/Davis cake and have a George/Drummond one too.
Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans
O/U: 228.5
18-19 Pace:
Bulls – 27th
Pelicans – 4th
Wendell Carter ($7,400) – Despite averaging at least 35 Fanduel points per game in each of his last five contests, Carter’s price remains at a level where are many paths to 5x value. Carter is averaging just a shade under a points/rebounds double-double over that span and thrown in nine blocks for good measure. He is up to 1.17 fantasy points per minute, and his usage is creeping up towards 20%. A match-up against The Brow may not seem appealing, but against centers, New Orleans comes in at only 12th best on the year. Anyone on this team does make me nervous as the Pelicans are the largest favorites on the night, but with the Bulls projected to be paced up by 3.9 points in this game, the thought is the production comes before any potential garbage time.
Jrue Holiday ($8,800) – Considering his contributions in assists and steals, I will gladly take the $200 discount from Zach Lavine and come down to celebrate the Holiday. The narrative is widespread now about Holiday’s production without Elfrid Payton in the lineup, but just factoring in the last three games, his usage has jumped from 22.5 to 23.9 – that’s Damian Lillard and Kevin Durant territory during that span. Chicago ranks 25th against opposing point guards this season, and the fact that Holiday has transitioned there during Payton’s absence can’t be overlooked. He will not have to chase Lavine around all night and will let that responsibility fall to E’Twuan Moore. Davis back and healthy should be music to the ear of Holiday owners. During the same three-game stretch of increased usage, Holiday’s assist% has shot up from 44.2% to 55.2% of his team’s total (he has not had less than eight assists in five games).
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
O/U: 240
18-19 Pace:
Timberwolves – 11th
Lakers – 3rd
Derrick Rose ($5,500) – If I were to copy and paste what I wrote the last time Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler missed a game it would look like this:
Rose is going to get as much work as he can handle. Look for plenty of Rose drives to the lane, with equal opportunity to score or dish to KAT. The offense will flow through Rose tonight.
This was written before the game where we dropped a 50 spot on everyone, turning back the clock to remind us what kind of player he used to be. While we shouldn’t expect that level of productivity, not much else changes tonight. With Westbrook out tonight, Rose is tied with Trae Young for the second highest usage among point guards on the slate – and that usage may go a long way in this high-scoring game. This game has already been be up from a 238.5 total to 240 since it opened. Combining two teams in the bottom half of defensive efficiency (especially removing Butler) and two teams in the top half of the league in pace, there will be no shortage of opportunity for D-Rose at Staples Center.
Josh Hart ($4,300) – Except for one outlier game on Halloween when only one bench player logged more than 17 minutes, Hart has at least 24 minutes played in every other one of his last 10 games. He also has at least 21.5 Fanduel points in seven of his last 10 match-ups and has yet to play a game where he does not record at least one steal. In fact, despite being a bench player all year, Hart ranks 13th in steal among players with at least five games plated.
538.com recently posted something about how Hart is the perfect complement to Lebron James because of how strong Hart is in transition and how good a defender he is. You can count on Lebron – one of the smartest players we have ever seen – to recognize that and start asserting some GM authority soon to make sure Hart is a large part of the game plan on a nightly basis.