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Month: March 2017

Cash Plays

Damian Lillard ($9,000) – Lillard has scored 35+ fantasy points in his last 8 games and draws my favorite matchup of the night in the Suns. Phoenix has given up close to 64 FP a game to opposing point guards over their last 10 games and Lillard is in a great position to keep that streak going for them. With his price only up to $9,000 I think he will still be a heavily owned cash game play and is a guy I will be looking to get into my lineups tonight.

James Harden ($11,700) – Harden is the highest price player on tonight’s slate and definitely a guy I am not looking to fade. The last time he met with the Cavaliers was November of 2016, a game in which he put up over 70 fantasy points. That game was in Cleveland, but tonight he gets to matchup with them in Houston. It will be yet another night in which the Rockets rely heavily on Harden to keep them in the game, and I expect him to exceed his price tag of $11,700. He should get over 60 FP, but even if he doesn’t he will be a heavily owned guy that aren’t going to want to pass on tonight.

Maurice Harkless ($4,800) – This man is the definition of consistent. He has posted over 20 fantasy points in 9 of his last 10 games (the one he didn’t was a 19.8 FP effort against Utah). His price has been $4,800 for a while now and he only needs 24 to reach value for your lineup. There is absolutely no reason why he should struggle to do this with the court time he is given while Evan Turner is sidelined. He should see roughly 35 minutes again tonight against a Suns defense that is middle of the road when it comes to defending small forwards.

Kristaps Porzingis ($6,400) – Porzingis and the Knicks will be in Brooklyn tonight to take on the Nets, a team that is last or close to last in the league in fantasy points given up to every position. Against power forwards they are 2nd worst in the league, giving up an average of 48.5 FP per game. Kristaps needs right around 32 to reach value for your lineup, and he shouldn’t have a problem doing that tonight at Barclay’s Center.

Alan Williams ($5,600) – Williams had a “bad” game last night in Dallas, putting up 22.5 fantasy points over 26 minutes. He’s seen a reduction in his court time over the last 3 games, going from 30+ in early March to minutes in the mid-20’s over his last 3 games. Tonight, Portland will be in town and I think Earl Watson will want to utilize Alan Williams’ ability to crash the boards to take chances away from the Trail Blazers rising star in Jusuf Nurkic. These are two guys I have heavily targeted in cash games over the last 2 weeks, but with Nurkic’s price now up over 7k I think Williams is the better option, which we will get to see tonight in Phoenix.

 

GPP Plays

Patrick Beverley ($5,400) – I love Patrick Beverley because he is a complete all-around point guard. He basically averages 10/5/5 and has had multiple games of 35+ to show upside for his price. He’s a very physical player and the Rockets are going to need to be physical tonight against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that is 1st in the Eastern Conference. He’s playing decently well of late as well, posting 26+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 8 games. He needs right around that number to reach value tonight and I think he is an ideal tournament play at his price.

Allen Crabbe ($3,800) – The Phoenix/Portland game has the highest team total of the night at 235. There are going to be so many fantasy points up for grabs tonight that I don’t really see anyone from this game being a bad play, but as far as who I really like I’m going to go with Allen Crabbe at $3,800. He has posted at least 24 fantasy points in his last 3 games and his price doesn’t reflect his recent production. He’s been seeing right around 30 minutes a game and I think we can expect that from him again tonight. He needs 19 to reach value for your fantasy lineup, but if he has his shot working I see him getting much more.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,300) – I’m going to keep the GPP picks rolling with another value play in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He hasn’t been particularly good over his last few games, but that definitely means he is due to produce tonight against a New York Knicks team that has been giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing small forwards over their last 5 games. He’s shown he has 30+ fantasy point upside, it just depends on how the Nets want to work him into the offense.

Larry Nance Jr. ($4,200) – I like any big man anytime they get a matchup with the 76ers, and that is the exact position Nance is in tonight. The power forward is priced just above 4k on Fanduel, but if he can put together a good game tonight his price should go up given that he would have a streak of good games going, having just posted 27.6 against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday. If he is given the court time tonight I don’t see him having a trouble scoring 20 FP for your lineup and carrying serious upside for much more.

Ivaca Zubac ($4,000) – I’m going to keep my GPP center pick in LA and go with Ivaca Zubac. If you know anything about the Lakers you know that after Zubac has an okay game they like to give him a little extra run time the next time they take the court, and that is exactly what I think they are going to do tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers. He put up 14 points in 17 minutes the other night against the Suns, a nationally televised game that left many NBA fans wondering who the 19-year-old Croatian player even was. He is still a fairly risky pick tonight given that there is no guarantee Walton gives him increased run time, but I really like his matchup if he is given some court time.

Ian Clark crushed yesterday as he got over 11x his value which is the most of the season! I had never seen a minimum salary player get 40 fantasy points until last night. Tonight, I’m picking Kristaps Porzingis of the New York Knicks. Porzingis has been in good form recently and draws a fantastic matchup tonight against the Nets. They are in Brooklyn so they will need his scoring production in order to win. Both of these teams are bad, so their shouldn’t be any blow out worries. I don’t see anyone on the Nets giving Porzingis issues scoring the basketball. Porzingis is also coming off of a 6 block game yesterday and should get some blocks against a Nets team that runs a lot of their offense through their big men. Expect Porzingis to reach his 5x value by getting a little over 30 fantasy points tonight.

Cash Plays

Shaun Livingston (3,500) – The big news coming into tonight is that the Warriors will be sitting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala. For a team that was already short without Kevin Durant, this is a bold strategy to be implementing in mid-March against a team that is only 1.5 games back from you in the standings. Nevertheless, this opens up a plethora of value options you can go with in fantasy today, and I think Shaun Livingston can easily get the job done. He should see about as much run time as he can handle and he’s as cheap as you can get, so there is basically no risk. Lock him into cash games and reach up to whatever stars you want elsewhere on the slate.

Bradley Beal ($7,600) – Beal was a cash game shooting guard I targeted last night, and boy did he not disappoint. He single handedly helped me cash with a whopping 58 fantasy points over 43 minutes against the Kings. The game did go to OT, though, so don’t expect Beal to be getting that same kind of court time tonight. However, this game does have the highest combined team total on tonight’s slate (226). This will be a high scoring game and, lucky for us, Beal’s game completely revolves around scoring. After last night’s game many will be looking to get him into their lineups, so his own % should be high. With his price remaining the same I highly recommend you do the same.

LeBron James ($11,600) – There’s just so much value elsewhere on the slate that a fade of LeBron tonight isn’t really plausible. He’s put up at least 58 fantasy points in his last 4 games, 3 of which he put up 60+. Orlando has been giving up close to 50 FP a game to opposing SF over their last 5 games and I think it’s very reasonable to assume King James will keep that streak going for them tonight in Orlando.

David Lee ($4,700) – I think Lee is another guy people will target in the GS/SA game since he has a decently low price and is coming off a great game on Wednesday when Aldridge was out. With Aldridge out again tonight, he should once again see upwards of 30 minutes of action. The Warriors have been awful against power forwards over their last 10 games, giving up an average of 49 FP a game to the position. Lee should be able to exploit their weak spots tonight and is another guy worth considering when you stack this game.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800) – Here we are again looking at Nurkic as a cash game center. It’s kind of hard not to, though, given his recent success in Rip City. With the Blazers he’s averaging 16.5 points and close to 10 rebounds a game, while also passing the ball extremely well. He racks up fantasy points in a variety of ways and has really been great over the last 2 weeks. In his last 7 games he is averaging 40 fantasy points, which, in retrospect, came mainly from his game Thursday night in which he put up 77 FP in 38 minutes of action. He gets to matchup against the Wizards tonight, a team that is in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to centers over their last 10 games.

 

GPP Plays

Ricky Rubio ($7,100) – There is too much value at the point guard position tonight for most to even acknowledge the middle priced guys, so I’m going with Ricky Rubio at $7,100 as a GPP point guard tonight against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 3rd best in the league in fantasy points allowed to point guards, but will rely solely on Matthew Dellavedova to stop him tonight as Malcolm Brogdon is expected to sit. Rubio has now posted 3 straight games of 40+ fantasy points and he should be able to keep his hot streak going tonight at the Harris Bradley Center.

Tyreke Evans ($5,900) – Tyreke started and played incredibly well in San Antonio on Wednesday, but sat last night against the Wizards. He should draw another start tonight at home against the Nuggets, a team the Kings saw in late February and a game that Evans saw 26 minutes in. It looks like Dave Joerger wants to make Evans a key piece moving forward and, if his body can handle it, should play him 30+ minutes. I think Evans is a great GPP shooting guard tonight, but make sure he is getting the start before locking him in.

Danilo Gallinari ($6,600) – Opposite of Evans tonight will be Danilo Gallinari of the Denver Nuggets. Gallinari has posted 8 straight games of at least 27 fantasy points and really has the consistency you look for in a player. Tonight, however, there are so many value options across the board that I think many will be reaching up for King James as one of their small forward options, leaving the other SF pick to be someone priced below Gallinari. However, the fact that he is getting overlooked makes him a great tournament play. Though he has been playing well over his last 8, he has only reached his $6,600 price tag once in that time frame, which will also draw people away from him. The Kings are an awful defensive team, giving up 50+ fantasy points a game to small forwards over their last 10. I don’t see Gallo having any trouble handling them tonight in Sacramento.

Gorgui Dieng ($5,600) – Dieng isn’t generally a guy that strings together a series of good games, but that is exactly what he’s done since the beginning of March. In the 4 games the Wolves have played this month he is averaging close to 27 fantasy points a game. There are some games in which Bjelica comes off the bench and has his shot working, which ends up taking minutes away from Dieng. This adds to his downside, but that is also why he can be an effective GPP play. At under 6k I don’t see too much risk with how he has been playing and he has shown he has 40+ FP upside, so he’s a guy I would consider in tournaments tonight.

Pau Gasol ($5,800) – Pau is under 6k for tonight’s matchup with the Warriors, a game in which just about every player generally worth fantasy consideration will be sitting. Gasol, however, will remain in Popovich’s starting lineup against a Golden State team that does not guard the big man well. Pau’s increase in age and decrease in athleticism has drawn people away from him over the years, but tonight may be a good night to roll with the veteran as he will be one of the guys the Spurs turn to tonight in Oakland.

Tim Hardaway Jr. didn’t disappoint us last night as he passed the 5x value he needed. Let’s keep it up here by going with Ian Clark of the Golden state Warriors. As we all know, the Warriors have decided to rest all of their starters tonight against the Spurs. I think that moves like this tend ruin the NBA and make it look bad. However, Clark is going to see a ton of usage in the starting lineup and should easily be able to pass his 5x value. You could stack him with all the other warriors backups who are starting as well tonight. Do not make the mistake of fading Clark tonight.

Last night’s pick of the day in Brandon Ingram crushed value by getting over 7x his value. This segment has been nothing but beneficial since it started. Lets keep it going tonight with Tim Hardaway Jr. of the Atlanta Hawks. Hardaway is a guy who has been very consistent for his new team and has proven to be trustworthy. I think the Knicks added insult to injury for their team by trading away this young talent. He draws a great matchup tonight at home against the Raptors. Whether Hardaway starts or comes off the bench, it doesn’t matter. He has been seeing up to 30 minutes a game on a consistent basis and has been reaching 5x value more often then not. Hardaway is a guy that I think will go a bit overlooked tonight and should be able to get up to 30 fantasy points where he needs to be.

Cash Plays

Isaiah Thomas ($9,200) – The Boston/Denver game is probably going to be a game I look to target tonight. The Boston Celtics are 9th in the NBA in total points scored and the Nuggets are 3rd worst in the league in points allowed. This will allow IT4 plenty of opportunities to score tonight in Denver. Thinking back to where Isaiah’s price was earlier in the year, it’s safe to say it has come down a considerable amount and is now at a point where we can consider him a value star option over higher priced guys like Steph Curry and John Wall. I love Thomas tonight and am going to be looking to get him into my cash game lineup.

Bradley Beal ($7,600) – Beal has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in 8 straight and has put up 40+ in 3 of them. Tonight, he get a matchup with the Sacramento Kings, a team that has given up the most fantasy points to shooting guards all season. The last time these 2 teams met, Beal dropped 42.7 fantasy points en route to a 101-95 win in Washington. Tonight’s game is in Sacramento, so the point spread is only 8. This means all of the Washington guys should be able to see their normal amount of run time. I think Beal will be able to continue his dominance against an awful Sacramento defense.

Wilson Chandler ($7,000) – Chandler’s high price point in definitely going to scare some people away from him tonight. However, Faried has already been ruled out and Gallinari and Jokic don’t look like they’re going to be able to suit up. When Jokic is out and Chandler runs the power forward position he sees a 25% usage rate and scores over 1 fantasy point for every minute he’s on the court. Considering he’ll probably see 35+ minutes tonight, it’s safe to roll with him and assume he’ll make value. Make sure to check on the status of the other Denver guys before you lock Chandler in though.

If Jokic does play:

Harrison Barnes ($6,000) – Barnes and the Mavericks are the beneficiaries of a matchup with the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The Nets are last in the league in fantasy points given up to the small forward position this year, allowing an average 47.7 a game. Though I don’t necessarily think Barnes will reach those kinds of numbers, he is in a great matchup and has been playing well of late, posting 9 straight games of at least 20 fantasy points. Though that isn’t much for a player of Barnes’ skill set, it is consistent enough for me to give him a start, especially considering his price point and great matchup against the Nets.

Aaron Gordon ($5,600) – With a rather bland night of power forward options it seems logical most people will look for some type of value option at the position, and I think Gordon is the guy most will turn to yet again. He has put up 30+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 and gets a matchup tonight against a Charlotte team that will be without Frank Kaminsky inside. Charlotte has decent numbers guarding the PF this year, but over their last 10 they are 3rd worst in the league in fantasy points given up to the position. With Gordon’s recent production it’s reasonable to assume he could potentially be priced above $6,000 in the upcoming weeks. I think it’s a smart move to take advantage of his still some-what low price tag and good matchup tonight as the Magic head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets.

Cody Zeller ($5,100) – Zeller saw an insane 42 minutes of action in Wednesday’s game against the Heat. With Kaminsky out the Hornets have been looking to Zeller to pick up some of the slack, and I that should continue tonight as they take on the Orlando Magic. He hasn’t done anything special with the increased minutes he’s seen over the last 2 games, but he hasn’t completely disappointed either. He’s put up 4 straight games of at least 20 fantasy points and you only need him to get around 25 to reach value for your lineup tonight. If he’s sees anywhere close to 40 minutes again he should have no problem doing this and should be a popular cash game pick because of it.

 

GPP Plays

Jamal Murray ($3,700) – Denver came out and said they want to play Jamal Murray more over the last few weeks. Our first look at this new tactic came Wednesday when the Nuggets took on the Wizards in Denver. Murray saw 24 minutes of action and, from what I saw, played very well against a Washington team that is actually pretty good at defending point guards. Murray could soon be a cash game play if he’s given more minutes. But given that he hasn’t proven to be consistent just yet, I think he is more of a GPP pick and definitely makes for a good play tonight against the Celtics in a fast paced game.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700) – Hardaway Jr. is in the middle of one of his inconsistent runs, but it’s a good one. He’s put up 4 straight games of at least 25 fantasy points and has had 30+ in 3 of them. Previous to this, however, he had 6 straight games of less than 20 fantasy points, making many reluctant to trust him. He gets a matchup tonight against a Raptor squad that are 3rd best in the league in fantasy points given up to shooting guards, so he’ll have his work cut out for him. If he has his shot working, though, he could be the reason you cash in tournaments.

Shabazz Muhammad ($3,700) – Muhammad started at shooting guard for the Timberwolves on Wednesday and put up 23.2 FP across 26 minutes of action. For his price point, he’s a great fantasy option. However, if Brandon Rush starts over him tonight it will definitely draw minutes and production away from Shabazz, so make sure to see if he’s starting before locking him into any of your GPP lineups

Thaddeus Young (($4,900) – Thad Young’s price is down under $5,000 for tonight’s tilt with the Bucks. He has had a tough return from the all-star break, putting up 16 fantasy points or less in 5 of his last 7 games. His last game, however, he played 34 minutes and put up 29.6 FP, looking like the Thaddeus Young we saw earlier this season. You never know what kind of player will show up when you roll with him, making him a risky tournament play. The Bucks are pretty average against the power forward so tonight may be a good night to roll with Young and hope he can carry the same momentum he had last game into Milwaukee for today’s game.

Greg Monroe ($6,300) – Most of the attention for the center position tonight will more than likely not be directed at the middle priced guys, which is great news for Greg Monroe. Thon Maker continues to start over him, but by the end of the game Monroe generally comes away with more minutes. Jason Kidd varies his minutes (could be anywhere between 20-35), so it’s hard to know when to go with Monroe. The Bucks just had an off day and Monroe hasn’t seen 30+ minutes in 3 straight games, so I think he is in a great position to succeed tonight against an Indiana team that is in the bottom 10 in fantasy points given up to opposing centers over their last 5 games.

 

 

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