Ad Boxes Slider

DFS Week 7: Main Slate Matchups to Exploit

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Browns at Buccaneers (-3.5, 51)
The defensive woes of the Bucs have been well-documented, and with injuries to key members of their defensive line, the struggles will likely continue. That puts the Browns — and their top three pass-catchers in particular — in a position to take advantage. The target shares of their top three options are as follows:

Jarvis Landry ($6,500) – 28.5%
Antonio Callaway ($4800) – 17.0%
David Njoku ($5700) – 19.5%

Among the teams on this week’s main slate, the Bucs see the fifth-lowest percentage of run plays against them, surrendering only 3.8 YPC. More on this in a bit, but first let’s focus on the Browns’ short-handed passing attack, which will provide their top three options with an uptick in chances. Considering the prices, the usage, the matchup and Vegas’ expectations of a high-scoring competitive affair, DFSers shouldn’t be afraid to run multiple pieces from the Browns passing attack into lineups. That comes with the caveat that Callaway remains a high-risk/high-reward play, but he continues to receive targets (32 over last four games) and leads the team in air yards from Week 2 on.

Generally speaking, attacking the Bucs on the ground hasn’t been the most effective option to move the ball. The absence of two linemen could open up more holes for the Browns this week though. Now that he’s the starting running back in Cleveland, Nick Chubb ($4,800) could be this week’s most popular running back play. Nobody will fault you for having plenty of Chubb shares, but don’t forget about Duke Johnson ($5,100), who led the backfield in snaps in a negative game script last week. The Bucs have been burned by backs in the passing game as well, making Johnson an affordable GPP pivot worth considering.

Saints at Ravens (-2.5, 49.5)
Sunday’s Saints-Ravens clash pits the top-scoring offense vs. the top-scoring defense, respectively, and figures to see plenty of attempts and yardage through the air as both offenses rely heavily on the passing game. Running out Drew Brees ($8,600) and/or Michael Thomas ($8,600) is a fine contrarian strategy as many will shy away from challenging Baltimore’s stingy defense, but there may be more value in the Ravens’ receiving corps. Let’s check out the target shares and yards-per-reception:

Michael Crabtree ($6,600) – 20.9%, 11.4
John Brown ($6,500) – 17.9%, 20.2
Willie Snead ($5,400) – 16.4%, 10.4

In a matchup that has sneaky shootout potential, there are a number of options in this game — on both sides — who could provide value. However, for tournaments, Brown appears to be a great choice. Not only is he seeing the second-highest target volume on the team, but he’s seeing the most air yards and a ridiculous YPC. If there’s an explosion brewing in this matchup, Brown has as good of a chance as anyone to deliver it.

Lions (-3, 46.5) at Dolphins
The good news here is that the Lions are among the most porous run defenses in the league. Of all their yardage surrendered, 39.6 percent has come via the ground, which is tops among main slate defenses. Additionally, opponents have averaged 5.3 yards per carry against them. The bad news is we don’t have a clear idea of which Dolphins running back will have the best shot at exploiting this weakness. Kenyan Drake ($6,300) has a sizeable lead over Frank Gore ($5,600) in snap percentage this season (62.5 vs. 38.9), but trails the veteran runner 62 to 52 in carries and has received the small piece of the pie in each of the last two weeks. It should be noted that Drake has out-targeted Gore 31 to 5 and out-caught him 21 to 4. With that said, this still presents a tough choice if you decide to take advantage of Detroit’s run defense. It’s not a spot to lean on heavily throughout your DFS portfolio, but if you need a low-priced — and low-owned — option that allows you to squeeze in an extra stud elsewhere, both Drake and Gore deserve some consideration.

QUICK HITTERS
The Eagles (-4.5, 44.5) continue to surrender most of their yardage through the air while limiting non-Saquon Barkley running backs to 3.4 yards per carry. While the Panthers have a nice running back of their own, he shouldn’t be expected to have the same type of impact. Instead, Carolina may need to take to the air for big plays. In the two games since the Panthers’ Week 4 bye, Devin Funchess ($6,400) leads the team in target share, air yards and is second in average depth of target. … What the Patriots (-3, 49) decide to do week-to-week is anyone’s guess, but they face off against the Bears, another team that allows a disproportionate amount of yardage via the pass. Tom Brady ($8,700) is rarely a bad bet to produce, but his price will force sacrifices elsewhere. On the plus side, you’re probably looking at modest ownership percentages if you’re aiming to pay up at the position. Also of note is that Bears all-world linebacker Khalil Mack is questionable with an ankle injury. … Kirk Cousins ($8,000) is another option under center if you want to create uniqueness through the quarterback position. The Vikings finally showed some life on the ground against the Cardinals in Week 6, but running over the league’s worst run defense hardly engenders enthusiasm going into this week’s matchup against a solid Jets defense — especially with Dalvin Cook ruled out again. Look for Cousins and Co. to get back to their bread and butter and chuck the rock around as 3.5-point road favorites.

Leave a Reply

Scroll to top
Password Reset
Please enter your e-mail address. You will receive a new password via e-mail.

PrizePicks Discord
Join the FD-GURU PrizePicks discord!
Click to join for FREE