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DFS Week 9: Main Slate Matchups to Exploit

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Buccaneers at Panthers (-6, 55)
Another week, another chance to pick on an abysmal Bucs pass defense. Cam Newton ($8,600) has been as advertised thus far in 2019, averaging 24.7 FanDuel points through seven contests. He’s this week’s chalk play, so don’t expect to create much leverage over the field, but also fade at your own risk. Those willing to zig away from the zaggers — but still seeking a piece of this matchup — can explore the Panthers receiving options, who are still bound to be popular, but maybe not as highly-owned as Newton. Here are the target shares of the Panthers’ top active pass-catchers:

Christian McCaffrey ($7,900) – 22 percent
Devin Funchess ($6,400) – 21 percent
Greg Olsen ($6,200) – 14 percent
D.J. Moore ($5,300) – 11 percent
Curtis Samuel ($4,600) – 6 percent

With Torrey Smith out, it should be noted that Moore played in 71 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 8 and that trend should continue with Smith ruled out again for Week 9.

On the other sideline, have a long look at Mike Evans ($7,900), who is reasonably priced this week. Sure, we all know that there’s a fair chance of Ryan Fitzpatrick being an unmitigated disaster, but he’s also clicked with Evans in a way that Jameis Winston has not been able to this season. In Fitzpatrick’s three full games, Evans has caught 23 of 30 targets for 367 yards and three TDs, good for 21.4 FanDuel points per game. In Winston’s two full contests, his line is 11 catches on 16 targets for 165 yards and zero TDs, good for 11 FanDuel points per game. Additionally, his score in Week 8 came courtesy of Mr. Fitzpatrick, and with the Buccaneers gaining over 80 percent of their offensive yardage through the air, Evans figures to be busy on Sunday.

Falcons at Redskins (-1.5, 48)
If you’re looking for a smidgen of value at QB and want someone with the ability to eclipse the 20-point plateau without being more popular than a homecoming king, look no further than Matt Ryan ($8,200). There are enough warts on this matchup to keep DFSers away, i.e. the Redskins’ tough — and reinforced — defense, Falcons on the road, low Vegas total compared to some other matchups with stud QBs, etc. But it’s those superficial blemishes that will scare others off and have you smitten when Ryan’s true beauty is revealed to everyone’s astonishment a la the overlooked band-geek-turned-prom-queen. High school cliches aside, the appeal Ryan provides comes from the fact that the Falcons lean so heavily on the pass to move the ball (79.2 percent of their yardage comes through the air) while the Redskins, thus far, have forced teams to beat them through the air (75.1 percent of yardage allowed has come via the pass). As 1.5-point Vegas dogs, the expectation is that the Falcons will need to keep the pedal to the floor and lean heavily on Ryan’s right arm.

Jets at Dolphins (-3, 43.5)
DFSers naturally want to squeeze in as many good — and often expensive — players into their rosters every week and that not only means finding the values that save money, but also the values that go overlooked. Enter Isaiah Crowell ($5,700), who is a prime candidate to provide both savings and differentiation within your tournament field. As road dogs, it goes against fundamental strategy to rely on the Jets ground game, but that’s why he’ll likely come in at modest ownership. The belief that he could deliver the goods to those with enough stomach to go against the grain stems from the funnel effect of this matchup. The Jets have relied on the run for 36.2 percent of their offensive yardage while the Dolphins have surrendered 35.1 percent of their total allowed output on the ground, both figures rank among the top eight on this week’s main slate. The host Dolphins laying three points in Vegas means oddsmakers see the Jets and Dolphins as two evenly matched sides (generally speaking, home field advantage is worth three points, so many would accept that the Jets and Dolphins would be a coin flip on a neutral field), and thus, this matchup could go well into the fourth quarter in neutral game script, allowing Crowell to see a healthy dose of touches.

BONUS: Titans at Cowboys (-5.5, 40.5)
Even during a heavy bye week, there are still a number of high-priced studs to choose from, and with Todd Gurley commanding an $11,200 price tag, there will again be incentive to pivot away from him to secure more value. For those participating in full slates, the splurge move at running back is Ezekiel Elliott ($8,400). Not only does the matchup between a run-reliant offense and a defense funneling a high percentage of production toward opposing ground games fit together like two puzzle pieces, but Elliott’s price tag still allows you to field a lineup without too many items from the clearance rack. The addition of Amari Cooper gives the Cowboys a much-needed perimeter weapon to encourage opposing defenses to demonstrate a half step of honesty, and it might be just enough to give Elliott the extra bit of room he needs to run wild on Monday night.

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