With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Dak Prescott – 183 Passing Yards/2 TDs, 82 Rushing Yards/1 TD

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars of all teams, Prescott scores 33.52 fantasy points and ends Week 6 as the fifth highest scoring QB behind Mahomes, Winston, Ryan, and Brocktober Osweiler.

I don’t think anyone in the DFS industry saw this type of performance coming. I can’t remember seeing a single “play Dak” take out there last week. Maybe some MME, 150-lineup players sprinkled in some contrarian Dak here and there, but this was certainly not on the radar with all of the other potential QB boom spots available.

Truly it was the rushing that props up this fantasy score. Without the 82 yards and score on the ground, Prescott finishes as the 17^th or 18^th best QB on the day. Dak was so good on the ground, just his rushing totals would have slotted him as the 10^th best RB on the main slate. But is the rushing sustainable?

Prescott’s history would push us towards probably not at this high level. A quick glance at Dak’s game log on Pro Football Reference shows that the 11 attempts were his most ever (next highest is 8), and the 82 yards are also a career high (37 yards more than his previous high!).

This was such a weird game all the way around. I don’t think Jacksonville actually made it to Arlington. Someone was in their uniforms, but I think the Jags got lost in Fort Worth or Irving or something. This game and performance screams fluke to me – the pass attempts and yards were both in the bottom half of Prescott’s career games and were nothing special.

Verdict – Leave It

Tarik Cohen – 5 Rushes/31 Yards, 9 Targets/7 Receptions/90 Yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost

Another weird game. Glancing through one of the Fanduel tournaments I entered, the Bears DST was 34% owned (including by me) in one! So while the Jordan Howard and Bears DST correlation did not materialize as expected, we should evaluate Cohen’s usage and prognosticate its implications.

Through the Bears first five games, four of them have been decided by seven points or less. This is important because Cohen is not being game-scripted out so far. Besides the beating they gave Tampa Bay – were Cohen was a key part of the game plan – the Bears are not running up the score and then letting Howard run out the clock.

Depending on whether you are a Howard or Cohen owner, there is an interesting development happening with the Bears’ running back usage. Here are the snap counts for the two primary running backs since the beginning of the season:

That’s the right direction for Cohen owners and the wrong direction for Howard. Amplifying those numbers is Cohen’s market share of the targets. In the Bears first three games, Cohen never had more than 11% of the pie, but in the past two games, he has seen at least 30% of the target share.

Matt Nagy is finding creative ways to use Cohen and they may never turn back. There will surely be some grind out the clock games for Howard over the balance of the season, but in terms of opportunity and value targets, the arrow is pointing up for Cohen.

Verdict – Since it’s almost Halloween…

Albert Wilson – 9 Targets/6 Receptions/155 Yards, 2 TDs

Your highest-scoring wide receiver on the main slate, ladies and gentlemen. Just like everyone predicted. This guy was doing some crazy things out there with Brocktober today. However, I noticed an interesting Tweet yesterday afternoon:

In Wilson’s two biggest plays this season, he exploded for 149 Yards After the Catch, when the expected yards After the Catch were just six. That’s both exciting and concerning at the same time. Digging around, you might see some Tyreek Hill lite comparisons out there for Wilson, and I think that’s fair. What that also implies is that there will be some tremendous boom and bust weeks. For example, his fantasy points per week so far in 2018 are 5.3, 12, 26.5, 4.1, 6.8, and 37 yesterday. So he is always getting you something, but in only two of six games has he had these other-worldly performances.

Simply put, Wilson is probably best reserved as a tournament play. He is someone like a Desean Jackson or a Robby Anderson who can unleash these monster games at any time, but it’s not worth banging your head in a car door to predict how consistently they will come.

Verdict – Leave It

David Njoku – 12 Targets(!)/7 Receptions/55 Yards, 1 TD

This may be an obvious answer, but it’s worth highlighting the game and usage that Njoku has over the past month. This guy is on the verge of forcing his way into the top tier of tight ends if he hasn’t done so already. Every metric for Njoku is trending up the past month: air yards share, target share, number of targets, receptions, and he finally caught his first touchdown on Sunday.

Njoku’s next opponent? The Falcons, coming off giving up a touchdown to Cameron Brate on his only catch and a 4-62-1 line to a one-legged O.J. Howard.

You ever see that movie The Wizard, with Fred Savage and a bunch of other 1980’s mainstays? In the final scene, the main character is competing in a video game championship and it is the first time that Super Mario Bros 3 is unveiled. The kid figures out how to warp and gets to go to some next-level gaming on the other chumps.

That’s what it will probably feel like with Njoku only $5,700 on next Sunday’s slate. He’s a Week 7 cheat code.

Verdict – Take It

The Price is Right: Week 6 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

Jameis Winston – This was a smash spot and everyone knew it going in. He even added 31 rushing yards to make up for the two interceptions. Holy crap, the Bucs and Falcons have bad defenses. Grade: A

Jordan Howard – As highlighted above, I should have noticed the downward usage trend for Howard. I still thought it would be a churn out the clock game, especially when Tannehill was ruled out, but Howard needed a 19-yard run in overtime just to establish a respectable fantasy total. Grade: C-

Chris Carson – The touches and yards were ok, but having him get shutout after multiple attempts at the goal line was tilting. At first and goal from the 2-yard line in the first quarter, Carson rushes for one yard, gets denied a TD because of a false start penalty, then rushes for no gain. After building a 27-3 lead, Carson didn’t even see a touch in the fourth quarter. Grade: C+

Mohamed Sanu – Left very early with a hip injury so we have to grade on a little bit of a curve here. He did catch his only two targets, one of which went for a 35-yard touchdown. His aDOT on those two targets was his highest of the season, so I believe a big day was in store. His hip is something to monitor, however, since it Iimited him in practice last week. Grade: A-

Jarvis Landry – Nine targets: Awesome. Two catches: Awful. Not sure what to do here because this was one of his worst games as a pro. The only one assuredly worse was a two-catch, five-yard game three years ago against Baltimore. He only had five targets in that game, so we may have to chalk this up to a bad connection with Mayfield and sometimes results don’t match up with process. Grade: B-