Tonight the Brooklyn Nets take on the Philadelphia 76ers in Philly. Even with Jimmy Butler doubtful due to a groin injury, the 19-9 76ers will look to extend their 14-1 home win streak against the 10-19 Nets. Even though Brooklyn is tied for the most clutch games in the league, they haven’t been able to finish what they start. They are only 5-12 even when they have brought the margin to five points or fewer in the game’s final five minutes. Philly will also look to take advantage offensively of a Nets team that is only ranked 21st in the league in defensive rating. 

Even with the many problem the Nets are facing in their season they still have some players with decent fantasy potential, especially with Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,000/27.29 FPPG). The last time these two teams met, Dinwiddie came off the bench for 28 minutes and scored 31 points, including going 4-5 from the three point line. He might not be the highest scorer, but so far this season for fantasy players he has been a pretty consistent pick for those looking for a player to put up an easy 20-30 fantasy points 

On the 76ers side, Ben Simmons ($9,200/41.12 FPPG) provides a rather expensive but high fantasy scoring potential. With an average of 15.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game, he definitely appears to be a solid choice against an anemic Brooklyn defense. He has some very solid fantasy achievements so far this season, with many 40 and 50 fantasy point games and a season high game of 64.3 FP. Overall he has high caliber potential for fantasy players looking to take advantage of this matchup. 

Tonight also offers a late night fantasy matchup between the NBA’s elite. The 19-9 Golden State Warriors, who are the top team in the Western Conference and a strong favorite to make it to the NBA finals will take on the Eastern Conference leading 22-7 Toronto Raptors in Oakland. The Golden State Warriors are ranked number one for offensive rating while the Raptors are in the third place spot, only 1.2 points behind. This game will be fast paced, high scoring and have early implications for deciding who is the dominant team in the league. 

For fantasy players looking for an affordable yet high performing player for Golden State, Klay Thompson ($6,800/33.47 FPPG) is a good option. In 11 of his last 12 games, he has put up 20 or more points per game. In his last game he struggled from the two but made 51.7% of his shots from past the three point line. His fantasy performance has been been filled with consistent 30 fantasy point and above performances, including a 30.1 FP performance the last time the Warriors took on the Raptors.

With Kawhi Leonard questionable due to a bruised right hip, Kyle Lowry ($7,600/36.61 FPPG) will look to follow his high-caliber performance yesterday against the Clippers. In that matchup he recovered from a zero point game on Sunday, putting up 21 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists. He has struggled some this season but hopefully for the Raptors and tonight’s fantasy players he will keep up with the 41.5. FP he scored against the Clippers and stay away from his dismal 16.5 FP performance against the Bucks. 

With the leading team in the East traveling to take on the leading team in the West, fantasy players have a huge amount of choices for top tier fantasy players. Whether they want to spend high or look for a value player, the players they choose and the two teams they play for are bound to put up a competitive and exciting matchup. 

The matchup between the #17 Villanova Wildcats and the Penn Quakers will be one of this weeks most interesting contests as it offers many top offensive performers on both sides.

The 8-2 Penn Quakers team, the top team in the Ivy League, have experienced a significant loss with the season-ending injury of sophomore guard Ryan Betley. Betley, who was expected to be a major offensive factor for the Quakers, fell in the first five minutes of the the team’s season opener. Despite this setback for Penn, his replacement, Bryce Washington ($3,900/11.26FPPG) has been performing quite well with a team high 46.7% from the three point line. The most important fantasy performer for the matchup on the Penn side is senior guard Antonio Woods ($5,500/18.86FPPG), who has an average of 10.4 points per game and has put up above 14 FPPG in every one of the matchups he has played in so far this season. Junior Devon Goodman ($6,200/22.89FPPG) is another player with lots of fantasy potential. He has averaged above 15.2 points per game so far this season with 40.9% shooting from the three and 61.1% from two, making him a pick  with a lot of potential value relative to his fantasy price.

Villanova had two early season losses against a #5 Michigan team and a #23 Furman team but have since recovered to go on a six game win streak. They will definitely put up tough competition though as they look to extend their season win streak to 7 games and their Big 5 win streak to 26 games. The team’s top performers as well as a top fantasy pick for this matchup is Phil Booth ($7,300/24.07FPPG). Booth leads the team with an average 15.6 points per game and over 3 average rebounds and assists per game as well. He only has three games this season where he picked up below 20 fantasy points, has 2 games above 30 FP and a season high of 40.1 FP in Villanova’s win against Quinnipiac earlier this season. Another top fantasy pick for those playing this matchup is Collin Gillespie ($5,800/19.14FPPG), who has averaged 10.7 points per game for the Wildcats this season. He has played over 30 minutes in the team’s past four games where he also averaged 12.25 points and will look to put up a similar performance in tonight’s matchup.

Overall this game, with Villanova looking to extend their streak and both teams looking to improve to 9-2, offers fantasy players many potential picks with huge upsides for those looking to play tonight’s college basketball slate.

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel and who we can invite to come on down into our lineups. This won’t be a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

There is a classic game on the Price is Right called Cliffhanger. You’ve probably seen it. There is this yodeler who climbs up a game-board mountain approaching a cliff he can fall from if you overbid on a series of increasingly depressing and unusable small prizes. The best part about this game is the inherent stress when he starts to approach the cliff, and the will-he/won’t-he game based on random price guessing from the contestants.

Sometimes, you just know what’s about to happen and there is nothing that can save that poor guy, and other times, you are sweating the game out right to the final dollar.

I can’t tell you how many weeks the roster construction puzzle conjures up the exact same feelings. I will be shaping and curating that thing only to plug in the final pièce de résistance and get this jerk staring back at me:

It’s even worse on places like Yahoo where they play with a $200 salary cap and you will be $1 over. Seriously? I will give you a freaking dollar. And as is so often the case, there is a not a player you value just as highly at that $1 Or $100 discount. So what does that mean? Entirely new roster construction and making sacrifices where you don’t want.

When is someone going to create the easy version of DFS? Until then, let’s try to keep that yodeler from falling off the cliff this week.

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson ($7,800) – There are 12 starting QB within $1,100 of one another this week, so finding the right person at a decent price shouldn’t be too much of an issue at the position. However, I will gladly take Watson as the QB with the ninth-highest price. On the surface, Watson’s FD points over the last six weeks that been extremely sporadic – 15.96, 29.4, 11, 20.32, 30.96, 10.86. But these performances have been volume- and opponent-driven more than any performance or lingering health issues. The Texans haven’t played a team with a current winning record since the Cowboys on October 7 and in those game they have skewed heavy towards the run.

Houston ranks 31^st in the league in percentage of pass plays at 51.8% and that number bottoms out over their last three where they have passed only 46.4% of the time. I don’t think that’s going to cut it this week against the Colts with an over/under of 48 and an opponent ranked 4^th in DVOA rush defense but only 21^st in pass defense DVOA. In the first meeting against these two teams, Watson had his second highest number of passing attempts (42) and passing yards (375) on the season while also rushing for 41 yards. These are reasonable expectations for an indoor home game that will clinch the division for Houston.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson ($5,600)/Jaylen Samuels ($4,600)/Justin Jackson ($4,500) – This trio of value running backs needs to be addressed collectively. Not since Mike D, MCA, and Ad-Rock has a trio been so important to the fabric of our lives. Who do we use? One of them or two? There are choices that must be made.

Wilson, for me, is off the list first on FanDuel. The $1,000 can be so helpful elsewhere and even though Wilson may have the largest role of the three, he is on the worst team with a third-string QB and certainly has nothing guaranteed coming his way knowing the Shenanigans of the Shanahans.

Between Samuels and Jackson, I will lean towards Samuels. Pittsburgh is just so pass-heavy on the year (67.2%, and 77.9% in their last three) and that is where Samuels should excel. Steven Ridley might plod through some short-yardage rushing situations and pass-blocking situations, but when dissecting who will receive the high-value targets, it will clearly be Samuels. It’s well documented that he was a tight end at the college level and has excellent pass-catching abilities.

Samuels already is #12 on the year for fantasy points per opportunity, according to Player Profiler, and that opportunity is about the expand dramatically against the hapless Raiders and their 29^th ranked total defense.

Aaron Jones ($7,500) – Owners burned by Jones last week should have no problem going back to the well with the stud running back. After three straight weeks of finally seeing at least 74% of Green Bay’s snaps, Jones was inexplicably on the field for only 51% against the Cardinals. Not to worry, the man responsible for that decision is now in the unemployment line and the best players on this offense are about to be unlocked by Aaron Rodgers.

Honestly, I feel sorry for the Falcons. They have to travel to frigid Green Bay in December and then face a QB who is going to be playing some motivated, inspired football. Finally free from the McShackles, Rodgers (who has been very public in his praise for Jones) should dominate play-calling and situational football here. Interim coach Joe Philbin is frankly in a four-week job interview right now and should be doing all he can to make his situation look impressive. Giving Rodgers and Jones control is step number one.

What I am hoping for (not necessarily predicting, but hoping for) is a return to weeks 11-12 usage where Jones was top two in the NFL in rushing market share AND was a top-ten running back in terms of his team’s target share as well. That is nirvana for this situation and for $7,500 against a defense ranked 29^th against the run and 28^th against pass-catching running backs, I am fully onboard.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin ($5,600) – Compared to his teammate Adam Humphries ($6,500), I will gladly take the $900 discount on a player with an increasing role in a pass-happy offense. Godwin’s target share has risen from 8% in week 11 to 20% last week as Tampa Bay narrows it’s passing tree with Winston back under center.

There were essentially only four options last week in the passing game – Evans, Godwin, Brate, and Humphries – and while Humphries and Brate dominated the underneath stuff, both Evans and Godwin accumulated 20% of the air yards with Godwin seeing his highest aDOT since week 9.

Why this is important is New Orleans is 22^nd in the league at opponents’ yards per play and the Saints give up the sixth most yards per completion and fourth most yards per pass attempt. For an offense such as the Bucs that throw 63% of the time, this is a perfect spot to feature players like Evans and Godwin.

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Colts vs. Texans (-4.5, 50)
Will Andrew Luck’s ($7,900) Week 13 stinker linger among DFSers like the remnants of a half-eaten McDonald’s combo? It’s entirely possible as he’ll lead the Colts on the road against another tough defense. He deserves a mulligan though, as his 10.52 FanDuel points marked his first time falling shy of 22 since Week 3 at Philadelphia. All he did in between was deliver eight straight games with three or more touchdown passes. Houston, while strong overall defensively, allows the second-highest percentage of yardage allowed to come through the air. Meanwhile, as you may have come to expect from a team with a franchise quarterback of Luck’s stature, the Colts rely heavily on the pass to move the ball. This matchup represents a chance to roster Luck at below-market ownership and potentially gain leverage over a large tournament field that shies away from a stout opponent.

Giants (-3.5, 41) vs. Redskins
It wasn’t the Week 13 performance we expected from Eli Manning ($6,500), but he gets another look against the hated Redskins on the road. Yes, this is another leverage play that also carries upside thanks to the salary it opens up for you elsewhere. The pass-heavy Giants once again face off against another defense that funnels production through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have lit up the Redskins with more frequency in recent weeks with the likes of Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz each turning in great performances spanning back to Week 9. Whether Manning is up to matching that production remains to be seen, but what can safely be presumed is many of your DFS foes will shy away. Furthermore, this looks like a week to stack him with Odell Beckham Jr. as the Redskins give up the most yardage on average to opposing No. 1 receivers.

Jets vs. Bills (-3.5, 38)
Could one of this week’s most exciting plays be hiding within what — at least on paper — appears to be among the most snooze-worthy matchups of the slate? The Bills host the Jets and there isn’t a team in the NFL that relies more on the ground game to move the ball. If you’re looking for a near-free square at the running back or flex position, have a look at LeSean McCoy ($5,700). Just like in real life though, you often get what you pay for, so McCoy isn’t for those afraid of receiving a return commensurate with his price. Even though his production hasn’t been up to par in recent weeks — a 24.3-point performance against these same Jets notwithstanding — McCoy has still received healthy volume with 19, 18 and 27 touches spanning over his last three contests. The more intriguing option, however, is quarterback Josh Allen ($7,400). Some may consider his price tag a bit too steep for someone who has only surpassed 200 passing yards on two occasions, but he’s made up for that with 135 and 99 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Allen has four games with at least eight rushing attempts, including 22 carries coming over the past two weeks. If the Bills are going to allow Allen to continue relying so heavily on his legs, he’ll warrant much more DFS attention than he’ll likely receive for this promising matchup.

Panthers (-1, 47.5) vs. Browns
The Panthers are mired in a brutal skid, they just fired multiple defensive coaches and quarterback Cam Newton is banged up. Carolina needs a win in the worst way and they’ll lean on Christian McCaffrey ($9,100) to lead them to one. Praise McCaffrey with whatever superlative you’d like as he’s simply been outstanding this season, particularly over the last five weeks in which he’s scored over 30 FD points on three occasions. The Browns give up a lot of yardage (third most yards from scrimmage in the league) and allow a third of that yardage to be earned via the ground. McCaffrey will cost you, he owns the second most expensive price tag on the main slate, but there’s enough value elsewhere to roster him along with other quality options.

Lions (-2.5, 40.5) vs. Cardinals
LeGarrette Blount ($5,600) isn’t for the risk averse, but he’s operated as the Lions’ top back in the last two weeks, handling 20 and 16 touches, respectively, in the two contests since taking over the lead role. He scored twice against the Bears on Thanksgiving day and remains one of the game’s elite red zone weapons. If you’re trying to squeeze in an extra high-priced player or two, Blount at his modest salary provides some upside should he get another full workload and, more importantly, find paydirt.

Patriots (-7.5, 48) vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins have traditionally given Brady and Belichick some headaches down in Miami Gardens, but that’s not going to be enough to shy away from this matchup. Not only have the Dolphins given up the fourth most yards from scrimmage in the league, but they surrender 36.1 percent of their allowed yardage on the ground, the fifth highest percentage on the main slate. Enter Sony Michel ($6,900), who has received 41 touches over the past two weeks and stands to see another heavy workload against a porous run unit. Those looking to find a pivot opportunity could also look at James White ($7,200). He’s more expensive than his backfield mate and has been the less-utilized option, but rostering Patriots backs can be a vexing exercise. We never know when Belichick and Co. will completely turn the industry expectation on its ear. Consider White the option if you’re taking an all-or-nothing approach as his ownership virtually promises to be lower than Michel’s.

Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

We have a very interesting five game slate on tap for tonight, primarily because of the defensive-minded, grinding aspect of many of the teams on the schedule. According to projected pace, only two teams are projected for a higher pace than their season average. Orlando sees a mild 0.8 bump against Miami (and their 15^th ranked defense), with the only significant increase attached to Phoenix, projected to have a 4.4 bump up in pace. The Suns host the Kings and their 27^th ranked defense, with only power forward listed as the position where the Kings defend at even an average rate.

Slates like this set up as perfect tournament plays in my opinion. One on hand, you can game-stack Suns/Kings. The Suns are not much of a defensive obstacle themselves – ranked 25^th overall this season, so there should be myriad combinations of ways to stack players like Ayton, Fox, Hield, Cauley-Stein, Jackson, etc. The fact that players like Devin Booker and TJ Warren will likely miss this game only helps matters. Throughout the day, value should open up all over this game allowing any permutation one might desire if mass multi-entering.

On the flip side, there will be so much concentration and focus on this game – which also includes a slate-high 223.5 total – that other players in positive game scripts should go under-owned.

For example, The Pacers match up against the Bulls who have the worst defense of any team going tonight and the game has a low 208.5 implied total. While the team itself doesn’t see a pace bump, individual match-ups (like the one below) should be in ideal situations. An even more contrarian play might be to mine match-ups in the Spurs/Jazz game. This is not your grandfather’s Spurs team as they rank 24^th in total defense and 24^th against shooting guards. Donovan Mitchell at home interest you? It should, Kawhi Leonard isn’t walking through that door.

Let’s take a peek at who other strong plays on the night might be:

Deandre Ayton ($6,800) – Ayton at $6,800 in this match-up feels like stealing. He is the second lowest priced starting center in the entire slate and is in the best possible spot against the Kings 26^th ranked defense against centers. Add in the fact that the Suns will be missing two of their top three players in terms of usage rate, and the offense in this fast-paced game should flow through Ayton and Josh Jackson.

The last time Ayton was this cheap on FanDuel he hit 7x value in a much tougher match-up against Andre Drummond, so we have an idea of what his ceiling can be as long as he stays out of foul trouble.

Domantas Sabonis ($7,700) – We know by now that not all bench players are made equally. Some, like Sabonis, play a starter’s role without their name being on the PA when starting lineups are announced. Sabonis laps the field of bench players in terms of fantasy points per game (32.4) and fantasy points per minute (1.31), and he has clearly outplayed Myles Turner thru the course of the season despite the fact that Turner is still playing more minutes per game.

Against the Bulls, Sabonis will either match up against Jabari Parker – who is ranked 91^st out of 92 eligible power forwards in defensive real plus-minus – or Lauri Markkannen, who is only in his second game back from a prolonged injury. Start him with confidence.

C.J. McCollum ($7,100) – McCollum’s usage rate has risen recently to an elite 25.2%. In fact, there is only one instance in his past 10 games where McCollum has not had at least a 23% usage rate, correlating with an eight-game stretch where he has hit 4x value every night.

Playing at home against the Mavericks and Wesley Matthews’ 75^th ranked defensive real plus-minus, this is a potential 6x game for CJ. Revenge games typically apply on the offensive end from what I can tell, so look for Matthews to maybe take the defensive side of the floor off so he can focus on burning his old team.

I don’t want much for Christmas most years, so wish lists are generally a difficult exercise for me. I literally asked my parents for a new oven this year, so just know that this is the level of creativity we are dealing with. Could I use some new pants for work? Yes. Could I use some socks? Sure. Do I like gift cards? Of course. So I can generally be happy with very simple things. This holiday season, there are a few simple DFS items that I would like to wish for. Nothing flashy – just your run-of-the-mill clairvoyance when it comes to making my lineups:

1. I wish to know when the cheap chalk tight end is going to drop a zero as opposed to getting a simple, not too much to ask for 4-6 points. Looking at you Matt LaCosse and James O’Shaughnessey.
2. I wish to know when exactly the middling QBs are going to run all over the place, adding an RB2 line to their passing totals. Looking at you Mitchell Trubisky and Josh Allen.
3. I wish I knew when defense actually mattered. Like, does it or not? And if the answer is sometimes, well then get out of here. Looking at you Julio Jones and Andrew Luck.
4. I wish to find a cheap defense some week and actually have them produce at least some kind of pressure and/or turnovers. Looking at you Tennessee and Green Bay.
5. I wish to know when the stud RBs will have career days so I can avoid overwhelmingly fading them. Looking at you Christian McCaffery and Philip Lindsay.

And I guess most of all I wish to know when performances from stars or out-of-nowhere role players are predictive. Let’s try to do our best on that right now…

Josh Allen – 231 Passing Yards/2 Tds/2 INTs, 9 Rushes/135 Rushing Yards
Zay Jones – 9 Targets/4 Receptions/67 Receiving Yards/2 TDs

We are getting a two-for-one special with this one. I am in a large 2-QB season-long league where I picked up Allen off waivers a couple weeks ago just to have a warm body going into the playoffs should something happen to my starters. Have I played him those two weeks? No. Have I won those two weeks? Not yet, and week 13 is looking dicey.  Look, we know not to expect another 135 rushing yards again. Allen’s rushing yards were the sixth highest by a QB since 1980 (five of top eight Vick, btw), so it is the definition of an outlier. But the point is that he is running. Allen has 22 rushing attempts the past two weeks, and that is especially significant when you consider he had 35 rushing attempts in the six games before he was hurt. When no one else on the offensive side has any talent, you just do your thing Allen, I ain’t mad at you. With this game, Allen is averaging 48.6 rush yards per game, giving him a floor of more than a touchdown before the passing even begins to count. And the passing hasn’t been half bad since he returned. Allen has three touchdowns through the air in two games, which is more than he had in the six games before injury. The rushing floor combined with increased passing equity and production leaves me to believe they may be unleashing Allen to show what they got with their first round pick.

Jones, on the other hand, is the model of inconsistency. In his past seven games, Jones has the following fantasy point totals: 22.7, 0, 19.3, 3.8, 8.5, 4.2, 11. So much good and so much bad. The same pattern (or lack of one) pops in target share as well: 36%, 5%, 37%, 21%, 16%, 35%, 18%. Those games with 22 and 19 FanDuel points are so enticing, and look so pretty in the box score, but don’t overlook the zero sandwiched in between them. You are literally getting floor and ceiling in consecutive weeks, and predicting which you will get is about as much fun as a Bills tailgate.

Verdict: Allen – Take It, Jones – Leave It

Dion Lewis – 6 Rushes/36 Rushing Yards, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/-2 Receiving Yards

Yes, the same player who has given us three games this year with more than 60 receiving yards just shoved a negative-two in our faces. Remember when Lewis was the chalk after the massive game against the Cowboys in primetime? Lewis has 50 total receiving yards in four games since that time. After peaking with 20 carries against New England, he has seen games with ten, seven, and six carries. With decreased opportunity and an incredibly low touchdown equity, Lewis has pushed himself out of any sort of reliable role for DFS players. For all of the talk about how dynamic a tandem he and Derrick Henry would be this year, it’s Henry who is carving out the most secure role. Lewis has only one receiving and rushing touchdown on the year while Henry now has five TDs. Henry is getting every close goal-line opportunity and Lewis has been relegated to a between-the-20s back.

Verdict: Take It

Jarvis Landry – 9 Targets/6 Receptions/103 Receiving Yards/0 TDs

Jarvis Landry, we hardly knew ye. It has been a while since we have seen Landry with this many targets in a game. In fact, you have to go back to October to find a game with at least nine. In weeks 1-8, Landry missed out on double digit targets only once in eight games. Since then – none. We don’t need some deep statistical analysis to determine that this new coaching regime under Freddie Kitchens is moving in other directions. They are featuring Nick Chubb more, they are opening up the passing game for Baker Mayfield, and they are looking to be less predictable. In those first eight games, it was a lock that Landry would overwhelm the passing looks. He had one game with less than a 23.8% target share in that time. Since the coaching change, 23.8% share is his highest mark, with a low of 16% in Week 9. Before Sunday, Landry’s targets and his air yards had been in a free-fall for five straight weeks, and it seems that the only reason for the uptick in this match-up was the early 20-point hole the Browns dug and they spent the second half trying to claw back. I imagine the Browns – already playing for next year – are going to spend a considerable amount of time getting Chubb, Njoku, and Calloway their reps for next year. Landry is reliable, he is consistent. They know what he is – and that’s not good for DFS.

Verdict – Leave It

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Cardinals at Packers (-14, 43.5)
We’re going to kick off this week’s plays with one that may be a bit obvious on certain levels, but with a fully-stocked main slate, there will be a number of attractive options to choose from and only so many lineup spots in which to fit them. Aaron Jones ($7,600) has been over 15 FanDuel points in four of his last five contests and the Cardinals allow the highest percentage of opponents yardage to come on the ground. Not only that, but we’re also talking about a matchup in which the Packers are an overwhelming home favorite. This isn’t a case where Jones should be expected to see low ownership, but the matchup pieces are there to warrant heavier ownership within your Week 13 DFS portfolio.

Chiefs (-14.5, 55.5) at Raiders
What was shaping up to be another obvious play has since become anything but a sure shot. Kareem Hunt ($8,900) was sent home from the Chiefs facility after video of a February 2018 altercation was released, putting his status for Sunday’s succulent matchup against the Raiders in jeopardy. This situation obviously requires monitoring, but should Hunt be active on Sunday, he’s another player who should be locked into your lineups. Not only are the Chiefs massive favorites, but the over/under of 55 is tied for tops on the slate. If Hunt is held out of action, Spencer Ware ($5,200) may very well be the highest owned player across the site. We know Ware can produce when given the touches, but fading him in tournaments is worth consideration. There’s certainly risk in such a maneuver, but with such a high percentage of the field expected to be on him in that scenario, it presents a prime opportunity to zig while everyone else zags and potentially gain significant leverage over your competitors.

Broncos (-5, 45) at Bengals
The Broncos hit the road as five-point favorites against the team that has surrendered the most total yardage all season. Of those 4,836 yards, a healthy 33.5 percent have come on the ground. Enter Phillip Lindsay ($7,000), who’s seen 15, 21, 19, 15 and 14 touches over his last five games. While fantasy owners would prefer their players to more consistently cross the 20-touch threshold, Lindsay’s productivity can’t be denied as he’s scored at least 16.1 FD points in four of those five contests. Even with a workload in the 17-20-touch range, Linsday has a reasonably good shot of delivering 3x value in this favorable matchup.

Bears (-3.5, 44.5) at Giants
With a number of ground options covered, let’s take to the air and hitch some of our Week 13 DFS dreams to Eli Manning ($6,500). The matchup doesn’t look great on its surface, but the Bears ($4,800) — who are worth stacking with Manning — have been most vulnerable through the air. Meanwhile, the Giants use the pass to gain nearly three quarters of their overall yardage. Additionally, Manning has been quite efficient of late, averaging 8.37 yards per attempt over his last five contests and has topped 17 FD points three times over that stretch. If you find that your lineup doesn’t offer the type of differentiation necessary to give yourself a shot at a high tourney finish, Manning is someone that you should be considering. If you’re looking for a receiver to stack him with, you can add another wrinkle at your opponents by throwing Sterling Shepard ($5,400) into your lineup as the Bears have allowed the fourth most yardage to No. 2 receivers. You don’t have to stretch your imagination too far to envision a scenario in which the Bears — like any other opponent — do everything in their power to slow down Odell Beckham Jr. at the expense of favorable coverage on secondary pass-catchers.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

After Christian McCaffery’s other-worldly performance yesterday, it got me thinking about running back floors and just how valuable they are or how closely they correlate to cashing in DFS – primarily for 50/50, double-ups or head-to-heads. I think it is intuitive to most players that filling your RB and Flex slots with these high floor skill players is an essential way to boost your overall total, but who are the players we should consistently be locking in to those spots and are there any hidden gems that we can mine to uncover some value floor plays.

Knowing that the highest floor players come from a combination of rushing attempts and targets, I started my search there. With McCaffery on Sunday, you essentially got an RB1 and a WR1 in the same player. Saquon Barkley was able to get you RB1 numbers and WR2 numbers out of one slot. This is what we are looking for.

Using Pro Football Reference’s play index, I was able to identify 35 examples from 2018 where a running back had at least 15 rush attempts and at least six passing targets. The list of players that have done it more than one time wouldn’t surprise you:

Ezekiel Elliott – 7 games
James Conner – 5
Melvin Gordon – 4
Todd Gurley – 3
Christian McCaffery – 3
Alvin Kamara – 2
Kareem Hunt – 2

That’s the entire list of multiple-game backs. Looking further at the names that have tallied these numbers only one time, you see some interesting names and circumstances:

Saquon Barkley – odd to see him here, but if you expand the parameters to 13 rushing attempts instead of 15, Barkley has done it five times. He clearly belongs on the list above.

Alfred Blue – an extreme outlier game where Lamar Miller was phased out and Blue rushed for 20 times. After totaling 2.3 yards per carry on those 20 opportunities, it’s safe to say that won’t be happening again.

Dalvin Cook – this happened on the first game of the season for the Vikings. After a subsequent injury and strong play from Latavius Murray, the Vikings have managed Cook’s workload much more judiciously

Mike Davis – a game where Chris Carson got hurt and Rashaad Penny was ineffective. Davis has only eight total rush attempts his past two games

Nyheim Hines – During Marlon Mack’s injury, Hines totaled 15 rushes and nine targets. He has not rushed more than 11 times in a game since and has nine total targets in his last four games.

Chris Ivory – I’m not going to dwell much on this one because it’s Chris Ivory.

David Johnson – this was the game two weeks that got everyone excited about David Johnson circa 2016 being back now that Byron Leftwich is calling plays – 21 rush attempts and nine targets on Nov. 11. DJ has only six targets and zero touchdowns since that game despite playing the Raiders and being down by more than 30 to the Chargers.

Dion Lewis – another instance during the first game of the season. Lewis has only topped 15 rush attempts twice and six targets once since this Miami game. Even in the projected smash spots against New England and the Colts the past two weeks Lewis had four total targets.

Joe Mixon – this one surprised me somewhat, but then I looked deeper. Even if you loosen the parameters to 10 rush attempts and five targets in a game, Mixon only shows up three times. He is doing a lot with his targets – 7.8 yards per catch – but he is only attracting 4.4 per game.

So if we add Barkley to the first list, that gives us what I will call the Safe Eight. Especially with bye weeks and Thanksgiving behind us, cash game players simply must have one of these guys in their lineups from this point forward. I saw some lineups this past Sunday with Josh Adama, Gus Edwards, and someone like Nick Chubb. I get the strategy here – volume and value plus these assets let you get up to other players. But at what opportunity cost? These backs comprise 31 of the top 50 FanDuel running backs scores on the season. You can try and guess when Tarik Cohen or Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman are going to reach 25 points (they all have this season), but I’m running with the Safe Eight, and building around them.

Now to the performances from Week 12:

Dak Prescott – 289 Passing Yards/2 TDs, 6 Rushes/18 Rush Yards/1 TD

In terms of FanDuel points, it was his best game of the season on Thanksgiving. But the signs for this breakout have been looming for some time. With 31 pass attempts on Thursday, he continued a streak of at least 31 pass attempts in his past five games. In those past five, he has thrown one interception, compared to four picks in the previous six games. Prescott also has been looking to run the ball more consistently in the past month and a half – he has at least six rushing attempts in all but one of the last six games, and scored on the ground five times. He never crossed the end zone via his legs in games 1-5. With Amari Cooper around to finally keep defenses honest in the secondary, Prescott has found more room to operate, opening up the entire offense. But the best part for Dak is not in the past, but rather in the future. He has games left against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and the Giants – all teams in the bottom 12 of DVOA pass defense.

Verdict – Take It

Kenyan Drake – 8 Rushes/32 Rush Yards/1 TD, 6 Targets/5 Receptions/64 Receiving Yards/1 TD

Drake is doing a kind of poor-man’s Safe Eight impression the past six games. In four of those games he has at least eight rush attempts while also attracting at least four targets in the same timeframe. With that volume has come scoring opportunities. Drake has five touchdowns in since October 21, and only two before that date. To chicken-and-egg this situation, the Dolphins offense has also come alive during that span, scoring at least 21 points in four of the last six – and things look promising ahead. Drake is clearly the pass-catching back in this offense and only Jacksonville represents a major threat to that position on the remaining schedule in week 16 – and who knows what that defense will look like by that time. I’m looking for Big Play Drake to continue this roll for the balance of the schedule.

Verdict – Take It

Calvin Ridley – 13 Targets/8 Receptions/93 Yards/1 TD

Remember that breakout game Ridley had back in Week 3 with 146 yards and three end zone trips? Yeah, that was also against New Orleans. According to Rotoworld, Ridley has a 15/294/4 line in two games against New Orleans and a 32/386/4 line in the nine games against everyone else. New Orleans and their 32^nd ranked DVOA against #2 wide receivers is not on the schedule anymore, so expectations need to be managed somewhat. Week 12 was a season high in target share, targets and catches for Ridley. Except for enticing divisional match-ups against Tampa Bay and Carolina, Ridley has games left against three teams all within the top-12 in pass DVOA. He should continue to take a backseat to Julio Jones and may only be serviceable in games with obvious shootout appeal.

Verdict – Leave It

It’s Thanksgiving Thursday and that means a day of lounging, drinking, letting others handle the cooking and hopefully DFS profits. With only three games taking place, we’ll highlight each one and try to provide some context to your decision making.

Bears (-3, 43.5) at Lions
Mitch Trubisky’s likely absence — he’s listed as ‘Doubtful’ — throws a bit of a cutter into the Thanksgiving slate but life and football power forward. While it may be tempting to throw a Hail Mary with Chase Daniel ($6,000) at minimum price, it’s worth noting that the Bears are already the second most run reliant team on the slate, so while there are obvious benefits to rolling with Daniel, you may be putting yourself in a position where there is zero margin for error throughout the rest of your lineup. Both Jordan Howard ($6,100) and Tarik Cohen ($6,000) face a better outlook, at least based on what the matchup tells us. Not only are the Bears a run-heavy unit, but the Lions give up a slate-high 34.28 percent of their yardage on the ground. That didn’t help either one when these two teams met in Week 10 but that can also be considered a buying opportunity. Howard has handled a shade under 17 touches over the past four weeks with Cohen averaging nine over that same span. Conventional wisdom suggests both will be busy.

On the other side of the ball, the pass-happy Lions will be facing off against a Bears funnel defense that allows three quarters of it’s yardage to come through the air. That plays into the Lions’ strengths, particularly with their top runner, Kerryon Johnson, ruled out. Even as a three-point underdog with a relatively low Vegas total, Matthew Stafford ($6,800) has some appeal as a low(er)-owned tournament option.

Here’s a counter-intuitive wrinkle to consider for differentiation in tournaments: Pair Stafford with the Bears D/ST ($4,700). Stafford isn’t afraid to give the opposing defense chances at takeaways, and the Bears have players who can create them. You’ll obviously need Stafford to handle his business overall, but the isolated result of any potential turnover is a net positive — and maybe if the fantasy gods are smiling down upon you, the Bears can take one back for six. These are the types of scenarios you need to hope for if you want to take down a massive small-slate tournament.

Redskins at Cowboys (-7, 41)
If footballers haven’t had their fill of backup quarterback play during the day’s first course, there will be a second helping when Colt McCoy ($6,500) slides under center. While those who decide to go against the grain will have the potential to gain leverage over a tournament field, neither McCoy nor Dak Prescott ($7,400) stand out as viable tournament plays as both the Cowboys and Redskins lean heavily on a ball-controlling ground attack — hence the slate-low Vegas total.

Even with that established, it’s still worth giving Amari Cooper ($6,500) an extended look. The Cowboys may not want to air things out offensively, but the Redskins continue to provide tough sledding for those looking to advance via the ground. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700) will continue to devour touches (one has to believe he’ll receive significantly more than the 17 he saw in his first meeting with the ‘Skins) and is always a solid bet to deliver on his price tag, but Cooper is the player who stands out here based on matchup strengths. His volume has been inconsistent, but he did see eight and 10 targets, respectively, in his first two games with Dallas and has allowed the offense to operate with a sense of increased balance.

The Cowboys are no slouches against the run either, a likely deterrent to those who might’ve otherwise considered taking a stroll down narrative street and running Adrian Peterson ($6,700) into a lineup. As much as the Redskins ran the ball before losing their starting quarterback, the logical assumption is that they’re going to keep pounding the rock. One caveat though: While Peterson has been undeniably productive in Washington’s wins, he’s been virtually non-existent in most of their losses. If Peterson is on your radar for Thursday, make sure you’re comfortable with the potential game flow and script.

Falcons at New Orleans (-13, 60.5)
The NFL saves us the best for last this year. Expect the big hitters in this matchup, particularly on the New Orleans side, to be heavily owned. A game with this total can’t be faded, but you’ll want to make sure you have the right pieces in this contest. Nobody can predict the future obviously, but the signs available suggest to us that the Saints will put up a large sum of points while the Falcons play catch up for much of the second half.

With the expected scoring so high, it stands to reason Drew Brees ($9,000), in spite of his cost, will be a popular play. The Saints’ implied point total compared to the other teams on the slate means Brees has a good shot of being the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate as well. The question you’ll have to ask yourself is whether you’re more comfortable taking the field at QB or finding the requisite value throughout the rest of your roster to offset the cost it’ll take to roster Brees.

Regardless of whether you decide to go heavy, light or completely fade Brees altogether, the trio of Alvin Kamara ($8,900), Michael Thomas ($8,800) and Mark Ingram ($7,400) figure to be busy. Not only are the Saints heavy favorites, but the Falcons are susceptible to the run, setting up a scenario in which Brees and Co. are milking the clock late in the game — an obvious plus for Kamara and Ingram. If you’re torn between these three, it’s worth noting that Thomas has only received double-digit targets once over his last seven games. He’s remained productive in spite of the tighter workload, but was below 10 FanDuel points in two contests over that span. Nobody is going to scoff at the notion of rostering Thomas, but when you only have room for a finite number of studs, you have to nitpick.

Pivoting to Matt Ryan ($8,600) in this expected shootout will be a tempting move, but a scenario exists in which the Falcons can’t keep the Saints off the field. That means Ryan will need to be at his most efficient in order to provide his expected value. If you remain bullish on the Falcons’ ability compete and linger within striking distance throughout this contest, you’ll also want to strongly consider paying up for Julio Jones ($8,800). After much hand-wringing over his aversion to finding the end zone, he’s broken the plane in each of his last three games while topping 100 yards in his last five. Over that stretch he’s averaged 11.2 targets per game and has converted nearly 70 percent of them into catches. Even if Ryan struggles overall, Jones is a nice bet to deliver a strong performance.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Take It or Leave It – The Thanksgiving Food Edition

Turkey – Take It

Stuffing/Dressing – Take it (it’s stuffing, btw)

Gravy – TAKE IT

Green Bean Casserole – Leave It

Mashed Potatoes – Take It

Rolls – Take It

Corn Casserole/Soufflé – Leave It

Cranberry Sauce – Leave It

Cornbread – Take It

Brussels Sprouts – Leave It, gross

Sweet Potato Casserole – Leave It

Sweet Potatoes Roasted – Take It

Carrots – Take It

Pecan Pie – Leave It (kid’s allergies)

Pumpkin Pie – Leave It

Chocolate Cream Pie – Take It

What’s Thanksgiving without some football…

Mitchell Trubisky – 165 Passing Yards/1 Touchdown/2 Interceptions, 10 Rush Attempts/43 Rushing Yards

Trubisky ran into an ascending and dominant defensive line on Sunday night and compounded that by his highest interception rate of the season. Except for a week 17 rematch with the Vikings in Minnesota, Trubisky has a very favorable pass defense schedule over the next five weeks, with soft match-ups against the Lions, Giants, Rams (I think it’s safe to say after Monday night their pass defense leaves something to be desired), and 49ers. In addition, Trubisky now has more than 40 rushing yards in five of his last seven games, raising the floor of his performances by basically adding a touchdown with his legs. With the recent emergence of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller coupled with the consistent play from Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton, this match-up can be chalked up to two dominant defenses duking it out.

Verdict – Leave It

Adrian Peterson – 16 Rush Attempts/51 Rushing Yards/2 Touchdowns

An extremely inefficient game masked by the pleasant aroma of two touchdowns – don’t overlook the 3.2 yards per carry and zero targets against the Texans. Peterson had his lowest rushing share since week five yet still was able to punch in two scores. Those two scores, in fact, were his only two in a loss so far this year. Peterson averages 4.8 yards per carry and 21.8 rush attempts during wins and only 2.3 yards per carry and 10 rush attempts per game in losses. With Colt McCoy under center for the rest of the season, the Redskins face an uphill battle for offensive efficiency. Four of the Redskins next five games are on the road, with the next three against intra-division opponents. I think it’s time to cash out on Peterson.

Verdict – Leave it

TreQuan Smith – 13 Targets/10 Receptions/157 Receiving Yards/1 Touchdown

THE BREAKOUT IS UPON US. IT IS HAPPENING. Admittedly some of this has to be chalked up to a good player dominating an overmatched, injured secondary, but Smith set highs across the board this week. He set season/career highs in:

Target share
Targets
Air yards share
Air yards
Receptions
Receiving yards
Red zone targets

New Orleans ranks third in the league in passing touchdowns per game (2.5), so despite a growing percentage of rushing plays in their offense, they continue to score more via the air than the ground (1.9 per game this season). With NFC South shootouts on tap against the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Panthers twice we may not get 157 yards and 13 targets in those games, but Brees has another potent weapon to target.

Verdict – Take It