The video below from 2006 has been widely circulated among The Price is Right junkies. You can get a sense of the public perception of this contestant by how it is labeled on YouTube: “One of the Worst The Price is Right Players Ever.” Joy Herrera has a bit of game show infamy attached to her as perhaps the least deserving person to ever come out a winner of any show. You could search forever and not find a luckier player or another game show host who is as impatient and incredulous as Bob Barker was with Joy; and I watch Alex Trebek religiously. Watch the video until the end and check his reaction – it’s almost like he doesn’t want her to win because of how poorly she played the game.

Switching to DFS, my lineups on FanDuel last week were strong, based on some stellar cash recommendations from FD-Guru.  On another DFS site, however, my lineup looked about as bad as Joy’s attempts at this pricing game. Except I did not get the lucky payoff at the end, and no new car either. Sometimes after I finish a slate like that, I feel like there could be a YouTube video made of my roster construction – “One of the Worst NFL DFS Players Ever.” It would get two million views and the comments would deservedly trash my process.

Flash forward to 2018 with Joy, and there is more to her story. Some time ago, she was diagnosed with stage two progressive avascular necrosis and is in need of stem cell therapy to help relieve her pain and allow her to continue to walk. In July of this year, a GoFundMe was set up on her behalf in an attempt to raise money for the treatment. Partially because of the fame she received from The Price is Right, she has been able to raise more than $21,000 in four months to help with her condition. As any tight community would do, they stepped up to take care of one of their own.

That’s one of the things I love about DFS. It’s still a relatively small community as a niche part of a broadly expanding game, but after every slate and through all the close calls, heartbreaks, and winning lineups, we are all there to do it over again. We can commiserate with each other, laugh at one another, support one another, and generally help each other get better.

I hope as holiday season approaches, you will find a way to help Joy or someone else you know get better. If you want to help Joy, her GoFundMe is https://www.gofundme.com/help-joy-walk-again

Let’s make each other better for Week 11 with some value plays.

Quarterback – Eli Manning ($6,700)

I guess if we are talking about the worst at something, we can stay on brand and talk about Eli. Manning is in the bottom 10 of qualified QBs this year in passing touchdowns, passer rating, QBR, net yards per attempt, completion % inside the red zone, and Football Outsiders’ yards above replacement and value over average. It’s been a mess – and that is with Beckham, Barkley, Engram and Shepherd at his disposal.

But Tampa Bay can mask a multitude of QB shortcomings. The Bucs rank 30^th overall in pass defense DVOA, 26^th against #1 wide receivers, 31^st against #2 wide receivers, 28^th against tight ends, and 26^th against pass-catching running backs. Hey – guess what – Eli has good players at all those positions!

Eli is priced the same as Derek Carr this week. Sad face. Take advantage.

Running Back – Christian McCaffery ($8,600)

I include Run CMC here not because he is necessarily tremendous value (he is the fourth most expensive RB), but because he seems to be overlooked somewhat on this slate with attention funneling towards Kamara, Barkley, Elliott and Johnson (all rightly so).

Let’s not forget what McCaffery did last Thursday night to the Steelers – the 10^th best rushing DVOA and 4^th best against pass-catching backs. He amassed 138 yards and three touchdowns for 34.3 FanDuel points. In fact, his five targets in that game were his lowest since week three (when he had 28 rush attempts) and his second lowest number on the year. Detroit presents much less of a challenge for the Panthers this week as they rank 25^th in rushing DVOA and have allowed the 11^th most FanDuel points per game to running backs in 2018.

Also assisting McCaffery’s ascension and positive touchdown regression is his team’s recent commitment to the run. On the year, the Panthers run on 44% of their plays, but that number has increased to almost 49% in their past three games – the seventh highest in that span.

Running Back – Alex Collins ($6,000)

As of midday Friday, the starting quarterback for the Ravens is unclear. It could be Joe Flacco who hasn’t practiced all week and is injured, it could be Lamar Jackson who has attempted 12 passes all season, it could be Robert Griffin III who is a literal zombie brought back from the dead. One thing is clear, however. The Ravens are home favorites against a Bengals team that has plummeted to 28^th in total DVOA and 30^th in rushing DVOA.

Save for a game against the Dolphins (who scored 17), the Bengals have allowed at least 28 points in five straight games and are in a defensive free-fall. Minus their best skill position player in A.J. Green, the Bengals may find it difficult to stay competitive as long as their defense is turn-stiling points all game.

Enter Alex Collins with the positive game script. According to Player Profiler, Collins is ranked second in juke rate and tenth in evaded tackles on the season. I guess those are irrelevant if the Bengals are not tackling people anyway, but with a projected larger role in a Ravens win, we are hoping for about 80-90 total yards a touchdown as minimum projections. If Jackson or Griffin were to start, I believe that would actually be a positive thing for Collins despite each of their respective rushing abilities. If either of those two start under center, expect a more conservative game plan focused on the ground game.

Wide Receiver – Kenny Golladay ($6,400)

Simple addition by subtraction here for Golladay this week. With Golden Tate out of town and Marvin Jones, Jr. unlikely to play, there are simply no true middle or deep threats left for Matthew Stafford.

Full disclosure – I am aware that those deeper throws have not even been possible the past couple games as Stafford’s offensive line has allowed him to be under pressure at David Bowie/Freddie Mercury levels. The Panthers, however, are exactly average in adjusted sack rate, according to Football Outsiders. The last two weeks, the Lions have faced the best and eighth best defensive lines in adjusted sack rate. The Bears and Vikings tossed Stafford around like a salad in weeks 9 and 10, but Stafford theoretically should find more time to throw on Sunday.

If he does, he should key in on Golladay. The Panthers come in with only the 24^th ranked pass DVOA (with perhaps a large chuck of that due to Big Ben thrashing them in week 10), but their primary corner – James Bradberry – is the 43^rd ranked cornerback in yards per reception allowed.

With Jones and Tate running next to him, Golladay’s usage was admittedly sporadic, but last week he was in the game on 96% of the snaps and was second in the entire NFL with 13 targets and 170 air yards. If positive regressions hits – meaning Stafford finds more time to throw and more of the targets find their way into Golladay’s hands – we could be looking at dominant receiving numbers instead of just a massive target share.

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Eagles at Saints (56.5, -8)
In one of the premier matchups of the week, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles travel to the Big Easy looking to build some momentum down the home stretch. On paper, this matchup presents the makings of a fun, up-and-down, pass-heavy contest as both teams have mostly stonewalled opposing ground games this season. Newly acquired Golden Tate ($6,600) only played 18 of 62 snaps in his first game with his new team, but he’s expected to take on a larger role this week in what Vegas predicts to be a high-scoring affair. Matchups from a year ago should be taken with a grain of salt, but for those who do place stock into such things may recall Tate finished with seven catches for 96 yards and a score in a 2017 matchup against the Saints. The more attractive — and expensive — option in this matchup is Zach Ertz ($7,600), who’s coming off a monster 14-145-2 line and 33.5 FanDuel points. He may end up being the most popular tight ends on the main slate, but this is an instance where going with the herd is the right move while you look elsewhere to create differentiation.

Buccaneers at Giants (53.5, -1.5)
The Bucs continue to surrender gobs of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, so we’re going to continue picking on them. The Giants have a particularly pass-heavy approach on offense, not a surprise considering the type of pass-catching talent they have on the perimeter, not to mention the backfield. Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,500) isn’t one to slide under the radar obviously, but it’s still worth noting that he’s seen fewer than 10 targets on a single occasion this season. Over his last three games he’s received 33 targets, catching 20 of them for 352 yards and three touchdowns. He’s going to be popular, but the volume is there and the matchup is juicy. Those looking to get a little cute can look at Evan Engram ($5,800). He’s only scored double-digit FD points in two contests, but he should be running on all cylinders physically after missing time with a knee sprain. More importantly, the Bucs’ sieve pass defense has been particularly yielding to the tight end position, allowing a league-high 77.1 yards per game to the position. He presents an affordable and potentially profitable option at flex or a Zach Ertz alternative if you’re looking to fade the popular pick at the position. Finally, while Sterling Shepard ($6,300) is strictly a boom or bust option for tournaments, he’s an interesting one to consider if you’re of the belief that Tampa Bay will do everything necessary to slow down Beckham Jr. He’s seen eight targets in two of the last three games.

Raiders at Cardinals (41, -5.5)
The Cardinals haven’t been favored in a contest this season since Week 1 against the Washington Redskins, but that says everything you need to know about the state of the Raiders. It hasn’t been all smiles for those who have invested in David Johnson ($7,900), but he’s coming off a great game in which he delivered a vintage performance (98 rushing yards, 85 receiving yards, seven receptions, two touchdowns, 33.8 FD points) in a loss to the Chiefs. Sure, he may not be delivering up to the lofty expectations thrust upon him this season, but it’s worth noting that he’s only scored fewer than 10 FD points on two occasions. DFSers need more than a solid performance from a player at Johnson’s price point, but given the way the Raiders have let teams plow over them without much resistance, he figures to be very busy this Sunday. There are a number of high-profile running backs

Running Wild
There are a number of attractive choices at the running back position this week, but three in particular head into matchups against teams that funnel opposition’s yardage through the ground. Melvin Gordon ($8,700) vs. Broncos, Christian McCaffrey ($8,600) vs. Lions and James Conner ($8,200) vs. Jaguars are each in a spot that could put smiles on DFSers faces. Naturally, it will take concessions elsewhere, but all three can be jammed into a lineup if you’re comfortable with the value plays available to you at other positions.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

The scoring in 2018 continues on a historic pace and Week 10 was certainly no exception. Once again more overs hit (7) than unders (5) with one game left tonight. I mean, even the Bills and Jets hit the over by 14 points in their match-up. RIP to all of those who rostered or streamed the Jets defense yesterday.

Here is an INCOMPLETE list of every team’s 2018 per game averages that rank first in NFL history:

Points per game
Yards per game
Yards per play
First downs per game
Completions per game
Passing yards per game
Touchdowns per game
Score % per drive
Plays per drive
Yards per drive
Points per drive

And there are countless more I could list to demonstrate what a monstrous offensive season this is. In fact, perusing the season totals for the history of the NFL, if 2018 were to end right now, this season would have the 36^th highest number of touchdown passes in the 97-year history of NFL stats. We still have seven weeks to go. At the current pace, 2018 will have 40 more passing touchdowns than the next closest season by the time week 17 ends.

Counter-intuitively, this poses even greater challenges for DFS players. With so many productive offensive weapons that are producing at such a high rate, it inflates prices to the point where value is harder and harder to come by. In Week 10, that honor was bestowed upon Dion Lewis. While he had the volume, his team scored four touchdowns by three other players. Checking the right box on which value play hits has become so important as it has become a choose your own adventure up at the top of the pricing. Do you want your touchdowns today to come from Gurley, Gordon, Hunt, Connor, Elliott, Thomas, Hopkins, Adams, Thielen, Kelce, Ertz, etc? They all seem to score every week so there is smaller levels of separation between lineups with these studs.

Let’s dig in to see who might give us that edge in the remaining weeks in this scoring bonanza that is 2018.

Baker Mayfield – 216 Passing Yards/3 TDs, 6 Rushes/20 Rushing Yards

This was by far Baker’s most efficient game of the year, as he completed 17 of 20 passes for his 216 yards, averaging 10.8 yards per attempt. His next highest mark was 8.74 in week three. Credit to the new coaching staff for unlocking the running backs, which was apparently some kind of grand mystery to the Hue Jackson crew. Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb gobbled up seven of Baker’s 20 targets, with Jarvis Landry accounting for another five. These short-range, highly effective passes force the linebackers back in coverage that opens up the running lanes for Nick Chubb to grind out 176 yards plus another 35 for Mayfield and Johnson.

After the bye, the Browns have appealing match-ups in four of their next five against the Bengals (twice), Panthers, and Texans – all of whom are in the bottom half of defensive pass DVOA. I’m all in with Baker and this new offensive scheme.

Verdict – Take It

Joe Mixon – 11 Rushes/61 Rushing yards, 2 Targets/2 Receptions/24 Receiving yards

Talk about the definition of being game-scripted out of a contest. Mixon’s last touch was midway thru the fourth quarter when the Bengals had already pulled Andy Dalton for Jeff Driskel and were running out the clock down 51-7. The Bengals also wanted to get Gio Bernard some action so he ate into four touches on the ground and in the air.

This match-up against New Orleans (3^rd ranked rush defense) and next week against Baltimore (5^th) certainly pose problems, but these 13 touches represent a season-low for Mixon – in a more competitive game last week, Mixon touched the ball 24 times. There should be much more volume ahead and much friendlier match-ups await against the Browns (twice), Chargers, and Raiders.

Verdict – Leave It

Doug Baldwin – 5 Targets/5 Receptions/39 Receiving Yards

The season-long touchdown drought continue for Baldwin as he continues to be out-targeted by the likes of Tyler Lockett and David Moore. Interestingly, this is the third straight week that Baldwin has been at least third on his team in target share.

He has also trailed Moore and Lockett in air yards, aDOT, and yards after the catch. I have no way of knowing if this is due to a lingering knee issue or if there is more trust with his other receivers, but any deep threat ability with Baldwin is gone and any red zone opportunities have been sucked dry. Baldwin caught his first red zone pass of the season on Sunday, so now he has the privilege of being tied on Seattle with Brandon Marshall, who hasn’t been on the team in more than a month.

With the run game really kicking in and a three-headed monster developing with Chris Carson, Mike Davis, and Rashaad Penny, the Seahawks should look to continue to ground-n-pound teams. I fear we have seen the best of Doug Baldwin and he is just a complimentary piece at this point.

Verdict – Take It Easy, Baldwin. You will always have 2015.

The Price is Right: Week 10 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

Marcus Mariota – The two touchdowns by Derrick Henry were slightly titling to a DFS community that was stocking up on Lewis, Mariota and Davis. Overall very productive day that continued an overlooked trend – Mariota’s yards per attempt have done up every game this year and his passer rating has improved in each of the last five. He is clearly getting healthy at the right time. Grade: A-

David Johnson – There’s the DJ we all know and love. Welcome to the 2018 season and welcome to the circle of trust not that you have a coaching staff that believes you should actually touch the ball in various creative ways. Johnson had his highest number of targets and receptions on the year, combined with his second-most rushing attempts. His arrow is pointing straight up at the moment. Grade – A

Aaron Jones – Wow. I mean Jamaal Williams has to be just an afterthought at this point. Forget about a timeshare, Jones touched the ball 18 times to only three for Williams. If the Packers continue to unleash him like that, we may have to reevaluate how this whole Green Bay offense works. It may seem like the product of one huge 67-yard run, but the truth is seven of his 15 rushes went for six or more yards, including six of 10 yards or more. Grade – A+

Jordan Reed/Vernon Davis – Reed did end up starting and drew six targets that resulted in four catches for 51 yards. He did lead the Redskins in target share, but with an aDOT of only 6.3 yards, a player without a lot of after-the-catch ability is going to be hurt in the volume game. After some promising games, Davis only saw 3.8% of the targets. Grade – C

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

In my day job, I work in higher education. There are so many things I love about the job and about the industry I get to be a part of every day. What I learned recently going through some strategic planning processes and thought exercises about the future is that so much of what we do is about balance. There is the balance of teaching versus research, the balance of growing our capabilities and resources versus affordability of college, balance of strict academic rigor versus the right mix of options for campus social life. There are seemingly endless decisions that go into making a university work and making it a place that’s attractive not only to potential students but staff and faculty, parents, alumni, donors, the community and a whole host of other constituents that must be considered. Balancing these priorities and the needs of stakeholders is a complex but important problem.

I wrote some things last week about how Week 9 would be an incredibly interesting slate that offered up a number of questions in terms how to balance rosters. There were a number of ways to go and I ended up trying several of them. One of the methods I often try to utilize in my rosters is stars/scrubs. Last week that seemed to be a winning strategy going into lock. There were so many strong running back and quarterback plays and seemingly so many strong wide receiver value plays that it opened up any combination of ways to mix and match players to build an optimal roster. Unfortunately, many of those value receiver plays busted. And so a somewhat balanced approach combined with a couple studs likely benefited more than often than going chalky value. I can state for a fact that my rosters with Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph all under-performed compared to my expectations.

I am a lot better at the science of DFS than I am at the art of DFS. The research, the data, the analysis – no problem. Those nuances that are required to look at projections of where people are going and analyze whether it’s in my best interest to follow that path or chart my own course it something I need to improve upon. I sometimes miss that fine touch – knowing when to zig when others zag and trust my individual approach instead of relying on the opinions of the masses. This balance between gut and data often leads to an overly conservative approach that locks me out of bigger opportunities:

In Week 10 I am going to try and find a way to balance feel and facts. Let’s go win this thing.

Quarterback – Marcus Mariota ($6,700)

How do you feel about guys like Sam Darnold, Brock Osweiler, Josh Rosen, Blake Bortles? Any of these guys make you feel good enough to want to press the lock button? Well we have Marcus Mariota at the same price as these guys and week 10 owners should definitely reap the benefit of the Monday-night-stellar-game-but-prices-have-already-been-released narrative. As we saw against Dallas, Mariota looks the healthiest he has all year (it helps when you can hold a football) and has really begun funneling his passing to a few reliable options. Corey Davis and Dion Lewis saw a combined 52% of the target share against Dallas, and no other player drew more than 7.4%.

Mariota threw his way to his highest number of passing yards, highest number of air yards, and highest touchdown total since Week 4. It also wasn’t just success through the air. He racked up his best rushing totals since that Week 4 overtime game with 10 rushes for 32 yards and a touchdown.

The Patriots, even after holding Rodgers relatively in check, have dropped to 18^th in passing defense DVOA and an even more pitiful 25^th in DVOA against pass catching running backs. Enter Dion Lewis against his old team. Pair Mariota and Lewis together in cash games or tournaments, I don’t care. YOLO, friends.

Running Back – David Johnson ($6,900)

Bryon Leftwich takes over as the new offensive coordinator leaving David Johnson owners with all kinds of hope and feels. In his first game, Johnson goes out there and gets four targets, 11% of the target share, just 16 rushes, 100 total yards and zero touchdowns.

…or for several of my season-long teams. But I think this is the week. Yes, the Cardinals are 17-point underdogs, yes they are on the road, and yes they still have Josh Rosen and a motley crew of a supporting cast. But Johnson still owns a 76% share of his team’s rushing attempts on the season and the Chiefs are now dead last in rushing defense DVOA on the year and rank 29^th against pass-catching running backs.  In a game where there will be PLENTY of garbage time, here is hoping the Cardinals used their bye to scheme a way for their best player to #touchtheballmore.

Running Back – Aaron Jones ($6,500)

This should be a simple game-plan for the Packers: AJ and MVS. Miami allows the eighth most FanDuel running back points per game this year, while allowing the 11^th fewest wide receiver points mainly on the shoulders of Xavien Howard who will guard Davante Adams on Sunday. Last week, the Dolphins turned Sam Darnold into a red-headed Mark Sanchez (all that was missing was a butt fumble) and the Jets still managed to get 73 yards on the ground. The rushing totals allowed by Miami in the six games prior: 188, 248, 164, 103, 175, 103 – with six rushing touchdowns as a kicker.

The past two games for the Packers, Jones has finally been able to create some space between him and Jamaal Williams. Jones has 26 of 44 rushing attempts in that span (59%) and had his most targets of the year last week with Ty Montfumble out of the picture. Most encouraging, however, were the two red zone touches Jones managed while Williams was shutout in that stat. Anytime you get a share of red zone looks on a team with Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham, you are playing with house money. I’m all in.

Tight End – Jordan Reed ($5,200) or Vernon Davis ($5,100)

Back to the well again with tight ends against the Buccaneers. Tampa ranks second in FanDuel points per game allowed to tight ends on the year, but for how bad it is, that number is slightly misleading. On Pro Football Reference the Panthers are worse, technically, but they just completed a game where they gave up over 50 yards and two touchdowns to Pittsburgh tight ends. Normalize everyone to before Week 10 starts and the Bucs are back in the lead.

Despite the relative lack of production from Washington tight ends this year, you are going to want whomever starts this game – Jordan Reed is officially Questionable. The Redskins will be missing Jamison Crowder, Chris Thompson and Paul Richardson from their skill positions and they just lost two starting offensive linemen last week as well, while already being down their starting left tackle. Alex Smith will have no choice but quick dump offs in a game where Washington is a road underdog

Last week against the Falcons (ranked 19 spots higher that the Bucs for tight end DVOA defense), the two tight ends on Washington combined for nine catches and 96 yards – and they both own a health target share on the season (Reed – 22.6%, Davis – 10.4%). If Reed’s back keeps him out of this game, fire up Davis and don’t look back.

Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

I may be the only person you can find who count misuse of idioms in their list of pet peeves. When you have a group of words that has a deeper meaning than the surface definition of those words, appropriate phrasing is key to making sure one can understand the meaning that could not otherwise be deduced.

Case in point. We hear the phrase “can’t have your cake and eat it too” all the time. When I hear it phrased that way, I immediately think “Why not?” In what world does it make sense to have a piece of cake and not be able to eat it? Is there a law against eating it? Is your stomach incapable of handling a slice of cake that size? What is preventing you from HAVING CAKE AND THEN EATING IT?

There is a simple explanation. The phrase originally was “can’t eat your cake and have it too.” This takes the phrase to another level of meaning and implies a fundamental truth about so many things. It becomes more about choices and our preferences than could ever be explained in the misconstrued phrasing. Owning a piece of cake implies one of two things: I can eat it now and be satisfied immediately, or I could save it and let it satiate some future hunger or craving. We can’t have both, so which is the more powerful motivation? Which pull is stronger in the part of our brain that regulates hunger and cravings?

In NBA DFS we are literally faced with choices every day. High stake or low stakes, main slate or short slate, stars/scrubs or balanced approach? Locking in Anthony Davis or Lebron James in your lineup tonight implies a type of choice, namely that the balance of the lineup is by definition diluted and riskier because of the percentage of salary the superstars require. So as with the hypothetical cake, weigh these decisions carefully in terms of how they impact roster builds. Is downgrading to DeAndre Bembry worth it to roster Davis or James? You likely can’t eat your James/Davis cake and have a George/Drummond one too.

Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans

O/U: 228.5
18-19 Pace:
Bulls – 27^th
Pelicans – 4^th

Wendell Carter ($7,400) – Despite averaging at least 35 Fanduel points per game in each of his last five contests, Carter’s price remains at a level where are many paths to 5x value. Carter is averaging just a shade under a points/rebounds double-double over that span and thrown in nine blocks for good measure. He is up to 1.17 fantasy points per minute, and his usage is creeping up towards 20%. A match-up against The Brow may not seem appealing, but against centers, New Orleans comes in at only 12^th best on the year. Anyone on this team does make me nervous as the Pelicans are the largest favorites on the night, but with the Bulls projected to be paced up by 3.9 points in this game, the thought is the production comes before any potential garbage time.

Jrue Holiday ($8,800) – Considering his contributions in assists and steals, I will gladly take the $200 discount from Zach Lavine and come down to celebrate the Holiday. The narrative is widespread now about Holiday’s production without Elfrid Payton in the lineup, but just factoring in the last three games, his usage has jumped from 22.5 to 23.9 – that’s Damian Lillard and Kevin Durant territory during that span. Chicago ranks 25^th against opposing point guards this season, and the fact that Holiday has transitioned there during Payton’s absence can’t be overlooked. He will not have to chase Lavine around all night and will let that responsibility fall to E’Twuan Moore. Davis back and healthy should be music to the ear of Holiday owners. During the same three-game stretch of increased usage, Holiday’s assist% has shot up from 44.2% to 55.2% of his team’s total (he has not had less than eight assists in five games).

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers

O/U: 240
18-19 Pace:
Timberwolves – 11^th
Lakers – 3^rd

Derrick Rose ($5,500) – If I were to copy and paste what I wrote the last time Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler missed a game it would look like this:

Rose is going to get as much work as he can handle. Look for plenty of Rose drives to the lane, with equal opportunity to score or dish to KAT. The offense will flow through Rose tonight.

This was written before the game where we dropped a 50 spot on everyone, turning back the clock to remind us what kind of player he used to be. While we shouldn’t expect that level of productivity, not much else changes tonight. With Westbrook out tonight, Rose is tied with Trae Young for the second highest usage among point guards on the slate – and that usage may go a long way in this high-scoring game. This game has already been be up from a 238.5 total to 240 since it opened. Combining two teams in the bottom half of defensive efficiency (especially removing Butler) and two teams in the top half of the league in pace, there will be no shortage of opportunity for D-Rose at Staples Center.

Josh Hart ($4,300) – Except for one outlier game on Halloween when only one bench player logged more than 17 minutes, Hart has at least 24 minutes played in every other one of his last 10 games. He also has at least 21.5 Fanduel points in seven of his last 10 match-ups and has yet to play a game where he does not record at least one steal. In fact, despite being a bench player all year, Hart ranks 13^th in steal among players with at least five games plated.

538.com recently posted something about how Hart is the perfect complement to Lebron James because of how strong Hart is in transition and how good a defender he is. You can count on Lebron – one of the smartest players we have ever seen – to recognize that and start asserting some GM authority soon to make sure Hart is a large part of the game plan on a nightly basis.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Football is a funny and complicated game. Two quick examples for comparison. This week, Todd Gurley – consensus best running back this year – goes up against the #1 ranked rushing DVOA defense in New Orleans and has his lowest output of the season by six points. Makes sense. Patrick Mahomes – consensus best quarterback this year – goes up against the #1 ranked passing DVOA defense and smashes with 375 yards with three touchdowns and 18 yards rushing. That qualifies as the second most yards and highest passer rating allowed this year by the Browns. What gives? It’s almost like football is hard to predict or something.

Tom Brady – 294 Passing yards/1 TD/-1 Rushing Yard

This is now three out of four games with one or zero touchdown passes for Brady – clearly something that needs our attention. Three out of four touchdowns in this game by the Pats were on the ground – that also needs our attention. Spanning out further, there is more of a balance developing in their scoring. In New England’s first five games of the season, their pass/rush TD ratio was 12/4. In their last four games, it has shifted to 5/7.

This shift seems to be intentional. On Pro Football Reference, you can look at splits for a team’s offense broken down into type of play at different positions on the field. When the Patriots are within an opposing team’s 10-yard line this year, they have called 34 rush and 31 pass on the year.  The emergence of Sony Michel, the reliance on James White (2 rushing TDs yesterday), and Cordarelle Patterson shifting positions to running back have allowed them to skew run-heavy, especially at home (45.5% of overall plays).

Game manager Brady might be here to stay for a while, especially with five games left against the Titans, Jets, Dolphins, and Bills.

Verdict: Take It

Philip Lindsay – 17 Rushes/60 Rushing Yards, 3 targets/2 Receptions/24 Receiving Yards

After two straight games of at least 14 touches, 95 total yards, and a touchdown, owners were hopeful for volume and opportunities for touchdowns against Houston. He certainly got the work on Sunday with 19 total touches, but finished with only 84 total yards and no touchdowns. Frustratingly, any opportunities close to the end zone went to Devontae Booker or Jeff Heuerman. After being vultured by Booker on the first touchdown, Lindsay brought the team down the field in a third quarter drive where he saw six touches, only to see the tight end reap the end zone benefits.

Against the Texans – who are now the new #1 ranked rush DVOA defense – we shouldn’t look at this performance and be disappointed. Lindsay now has 19 red zone touches on the year, tied with the likes of Joe Mixon and David Johnson; one more than Ezekiel Elliott and Marshawn Lynch. Lindsay swallowed up 85% of the rushing attempts yesterday and should continue to be the featured back with much lighter match-ups ahead against the Chargers, 49ers, Browns, and Raiders before the end of the season.

Verdict – Leave It

Adam Humphries – 8 Targets/8 Receptions/82 Receiving Yards/2 Touchdowns, 1 Rush/7 Rushing Yards

Saw a great tweet today about recent target share.

That’s a lot of targets, and apparently he doesn’t care who is playing QB for the Buccaneers despite some of the narratives that were floating around last week (Humphries generated a WR rating of 149, according to Pro Football Focus). Since his team’s bye, Humphries is averaging 7.8 targets and 69.3 yards per game and he posted his second straight week with at least 20% of the target share. Lining up in the slot for a team with the most pass attempts in the NFL and the second most touchdown passes on the season – and for a team that seems to be allergic to defense – Humphries is in a prime spot to continue his ascent the rest of the season.

Verdict –

And when you’re looking for your freedom
Nobody seems to care
And you can’t find the door
Can’t find it anywhere

The Price is Right: Week 9 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – This was a scary one in the beginning with that what-the-f*** interception he threw, but the Tampa Bay defense didn’t let us down, forcing Fitzmagic to throw it all over the yard for 243 yards and four touchdowns. Grade: A-

Chris Carson – The Seahawks running back was sidelined with an injury after only eight touches against San Diego, leaving us with the assumption that Seattle rushed him back before he was ready. He was averaging five yards per carry before he left, and that was on one healthy leg, but still not enough data to evaluate. Grade: Incomplete

Isaiah Crowell –

We are going to erase this whole game from our collective memories. Grade: D

Chris Godwin – As discussed above, Humphries was the beneficiary – outpacing all of Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, and Godwin. He dropped to fifth in both target share and fourth in air yards as it seems Humphries is poised to overtake him in the offense. Grade: C-

Tre’Quan Smith – It was the right call to get a piece of this game, and his overall numbers are acceptable because of the touchdown, but a clear number two wide receiver in a Brees offense should get more target share than Benjamin Watson and Josh Hill. His usage is something to monitor, as it is down for three straight weeks. Grade: B-

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

Welcome to holiday Starbucks cup day, because apparently it’s is a day of national importance. There is widespread anticipation and debate over what design is going to be on your cup that will be in the trash in 15 minutes. For some reason, there is a subsection of the population who take this unveiling WAY too seriously. On one side, there are those who decide it’s ok to start drinking Starbucks again after an 11-month hiatus, like Starbucks does something to improve the quality of the coffee between mid-November and Christmas.

Then there is the other side. Those who feel it necessary to degrade the company and their customers and relentlessly and disgustingly make these cups about religious imagery, belief systems and appropriate iconography. How some people can get this outraged about a cup design is beyond me.

I guess I should not be surprised after all these years by the things I see on Twitter. Some of our own fantasy community recently devolved into human garbage because of a couple plays in last week’s Rams/Packers game. Fantasy owners angry at Todd Gurley letting himself be tackled and Packers’ fans furious with Ty Montgomery for his kick-off fumble displayed some of the worst (anonymous) behavior imaginable.

I have no words. There were even reports of people making threats against Montgomery’s family after that play.

Why do we play this fantasy game? Seemingly as a distraction from the real world, where we too often encounter real pain, grief and heartbreak. But if you put a little money behind it or put people up against each other each week to declare a winner, our endowment in the outcome runs deeper and we become just as passionate about a fake football game as we do about much, MUCH more serious things.

Some weeks we make the right calls, some weeks the wrong ones. But every week we are trying to essentially predict the future, which is an impossible task. So if we are going to fail, or people who have zero investment in our personal outcomes or satisfaction are not going to play up to expectations, let’s keep some perspective. Games are fun. Football is fun. Don’t ruin it for everyone.

Rant over. Just a fun Price is Right clip to lighten the mood.

On to Week 9 value players.

Quarterback – Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,100)

There will be a lot of exposure this week in cash games and tournaments to the likes of Mahomes, Newton, Goff, and Brees – and rightly so. With pricing so compacted on FanDuel, the opportunity cost doesn’t cripple you to take one of the high priced guys. In fact, apart from Mahomes, every QB that would be a reasonable start is priced between $8,600 and $7,100. What I have found in my builds, however, is that locking in Fitzpatrick is much more conducive to fitting in the Gurleys, Kamaras, and Michael Thomases of the world. But it’s much more than price that has me intrigued. The match-up seems to work in his favor as well.

Despite a date with the Panthers with a game total of 54.5, this game might be slightly overlooked in favor of Rams/Saints and Chiefs/Browns. Cam Newton is definitely the preferred QB in a vacuum so perhaps that deflates Fitzmagic’s ownership this week. In the Bucs favor this week is a match-up against a mediocre-at-best Panthers pass defense that is in the bottom 10 in opponent completion percentage, opponent completions per game, and opponent passing touchdown percentage. They also rank only 20^th in DVOA pass defense in 2018.

Store those numbers in your brain and then make your way over to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Their passer rating stat lists Fitzpatrick number one on the year at 119.3. That number is better than Brees, Mahomes, Goff, everybody.  That’s how being first works, you see. Stir all those facts up, dash in a little knowledge that Tampa Bay passes on almost 65% of their plays, and you are looking at some real magic about to happen.

Running Back – Isaiah Crowell ($5,700)

We need to get out of the way first that his performance last week was putrid. Pitiful. Pathetic. Whatever word you want to use. There was a thought that with almost all of the snaps coming his way, the volume would be able to overcome the tough match-up against the Bears to churn out a decent fantasy day. Didn’t happen.

But this week, the running lanes should be opening wide for the Crow. Going from the Bears (3^rd ranked rush DVOA) to the Dolphins (16^th) will provide countless more opportunities for positive plays than may first appear on paper. Over the past four contests, the Dolphins have allowed a staggering 5.28 yards per carry, including their recent game against Houston where Lamar Miller rushed 18 times for 133 yards. Miami has now moved into the position as the 4^th worst team in terms of allowing FanDuel points to running backs – 27.7 per game.

Even with Elijah McGuire sharing the backfield, we can still expect Crowell to equal if not exceed his average of 12 rushes per game. In a game with a spread within a field goal, Crowell should not be game-scripted out and will be counted on from start to finish.

Running Baker – Chris Carson ($6,500)

I bet you can’t guess who is second behind Todd Gurley this year in average rushes per game? You would get a lot of answers to that question before someone finally settled on Chris Carson. With his 25 carries last week, he passed Ezekiel Elliott for rushes per game, and despite Russell Wilson’s hyper-efficiency passing the ball lately, the Seahawks show no signs of slowing up on their rush/pass balance.

The Seahawks are the only team with a higher percentage of rushing plays (52%) than passing plays (48%) this year, and it isn’t particularly close. The Rams are at 48% and that is partly attributed to the fact that they have Todd Gurley and are frequently playing with huge leads. Shrink the sample size to the last three games, and the Seahawks have run on almost 63% of their plays!! That is unheard of in the 2018 NFL, yet Seattle is succeeding with it.

Looking in trenches, we can see how the offensive line is contributing to Carson’s recent success with his opportunity. Seattle has jumped up to 6^th in Football Outsiders’ Stuffed Rank, which measures how often a running back is stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. Positive yards + unrivaled opportunity = continued success for Carson’s fantasy contributions. The Chargers are middle of the pack in terms of rush defense and the ‘Hawks are at home as a slight favorite. Lock him in.

Wide receiver – Tre’Quan Smith ($5,100)

60 points. That’s 60. The highest game total of the season is slated to kick off Sunday afternoon and you are going to want a piece of it. The breakout hasn’t fully happened yet for Tre’Quan, but it’s certainly coming. Apart from his gem in week 5 where he busted the Redskins for two touchdowns, Smith has been relatively quiet.

Consider: five straight weeks of increased snaps, no Ted Ginn, three straight weeks of decreased snaps for Cam Meredith, the game is at home on turf. And – 60 points.

Wide Receiver – Chris Godwin ($5,900)

If you are looking for a piece of the Bucs passing game, but have committed elsewhere at QB, Godwin is a very economical way to own a share. Having seen his snap % drop to a season low in Week 4 (49%), he has been on the field for more snaps each week since – lining up 72% of the time in Week 8, trailing only Mike Evans.

To be fair, Godwin will trail Evans in just about every meaningful statistic you can uncover, but his role in the offense might just pay off this week. The Panthers’ DVOA against number one receivers this year is number four overall, and against third or fourth wide receivers, they rank third…

HOWEVER

Against #2 wide receivers, the Panthers only rank 17th. The opportunity is there this week for Godwin to beat coverage and draw the most favorable assignment. Player Profiler has him projected to be covered by Corn Elder, the 79^th ranked cornerback in 2018. Hopefully the Magic finds its way to Godwin this week in a winnable match-up.

Each week, we’ll dive into Fanduel’s main slate to highlight some of the juiciest matchups and situations to exploit. Whether it’s finding the low(er)-owned gems in a popular upcoming shootout or identifying an overlooked clash that DFSers can use to gain leverage over a tournament field, our aim is to provide you the individual plays and overall strategy to consider as you chase profitability in your DFS portfolio. Let’s jump in.

Buccaneers at Panthers (-6, 55)
Another week, another chance to pick on an abysmal Bucs pass defense. Cam Newton ($8,600) has been as advertised thus far in 2019, averaging 24.7 FanDuel points through seven contests. He’s this week’s chalk play, so don’t expect to create much leverage over the field, but also fade at your own risk. Those willing to zig away from the zaggers — but still seeking a piece of this matchup — can explore the Panthers receiving options, who are still bound to be popular, but maybe not as highly-owned as Newton. Here are the target shares of the Panthers’ top active pass-catchers:

Christian McCaffrey ($7,900) – 22 percent
Devin Funchess ($6,400) – 21 percent
Greg Olsen ($6,200) – 14 percent
D.J. Moore ($5,300) – 11 percent
Curtis Samuel ($4,600) – 6 percent

With Torrey Smith out, it should be noted that Moore played in 71 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 8 and that trend should continue with Smith ruled out again for Week 9.

On the other sideline, have a long look at Mike Evans ($7,900), who is reasonably priced this week. Sure, we all know that there’s a fair chance of Ryan Fitzpatrick being an unmitigated disaster, but he’s also clicked with Evans in a way that Jameis Winston has not been able to this season. In Fitzpatrick’s three full games, Evans has caught 23 of 30 targets for 367 yards and three TDs, good for 21.4 FanDuel points per game. In Winston’s two full contests, his line is 11 catches on 16 targets for 165 yards and zero TDs, good for 11 FanDuel points per game. Additionally, his score in Week 8 came courtesy of Mr. Fitzpatrick, and with the Buccaneers gaining over 80 percent of their offensive yardage through the air, Evans figures to be busy on Sunday.

Falcons at Redskins (-1.5, 48)
If you’re looking for a smidgen of value at QB and want someone with the ability to eclipse the 20-point plateau without being more popular than a homecoming king, look no further than Matt Ryan ($8,200). There are enough warts on this matchup to keep DFSers away, i.e. the Redskins’ tough — and reinforced — defense, Falcons on the road, low Vegas total compared to some other matchups with stud QBs, etc. But it’s those superficial blemishes that will scare others off and have you smitten when Ryan’s true beauty is revealed to everyone’s astonishment a la the overlooked band-geek-turned-prom-queen. High school cliches aside, the appeal Ryan provides comes from the fact that the Falcons lean so heavily on the pass to move the ball (79.2 percent of their yardage comes through the air) while the Redskins, thus far, have forced teams to beat them through the air (75.1 percent of yardage allowed has come via the pass). As 1.5-point Vegas dogs, the expectation is that the Falcons will need to keep the pedal to the floor and lean heavily on Ryan’s right arm.

Jets at Dolphins (-3, 43.5)
DFSers naturally want to squeeze in as many good — and often expensive — players into their rosters every week and that not only means finding the values that save money, but also the values that go overlooked. Enter Isaiah Crowell ($5,700), who is a prime candidate to provide both savings and differentiation within your tournament field. As road dogs, it goes against fundamental strategy to rely on the Jets ground game, but that’s why he’ll likely come in at modest ownership. The belief that he could deliver the goods to those with enough stomach to go against the grain stems from the funnel effect of this matchup. The Jets have relied on the run for 36.2 percent of their offensive yardage while the Dolphins have surrendered 35.1 percent of their total allowed output on the ground, both figures rank among the top eight on this week’s main slate. The host Dolphins laying three points in Vegas means oddsmakers see the Jets and Dolphins as two evenly matched sides (generally speaking, home field advantage is worth three points, so many would accept that the Jets and Dolphins would be a coin flip on a neutral field), and thus, this matchup could go well into the fourth quarter in neutral game script, allowing Crowell to see a healthy dose of touches.

BONUS: Titans at Cowboys (-5.5, 40.5)
Even during a heavy bye week, there are still a number of high-priced studs to choose from, and with Todd Gurley commanding an $11,200 price tag, there will again be incentive to pivot away from him to secure more value. For those participating in full slates, the splurge move at running back is Ezekiel Elliott ($8,400). Not only does the matchup between a run-reliant offense and a defense funneling a high percentage of production toward opposing ground games fit together like two puzzle pieces, but Elliott’s price tag still allows you to field a lineup without too many items from the clearance rack. The addition of Amari Cooper gives the Cowboys a much-needed perimeter weapon to encourage opposing defenses to demonstrate a half step of honesty, and it might be just enough to give Elliott the extra bit of room he needs to run wild on Monday night.