Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

We have a tidy seven-game slate for this evening in the NBA. These mid-size slates always end up being my favorite. On short slate NBA nights, it so often seems as though everyone is on the same players, so trying to be contrarian usually ends up working well or working horribly. I have been burned many times by subbing in one value play for another, only to be the one guy who missed out on chalk that hit. Larger 10- or 11-game slates often remind me of Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz. The sheer number of possible lineup permutations and potential strong plays makes lineup construction complex and paralyzing. Our potential options for strong plays grow as the number of games increase, but analyzing which of the STRONG plays should become the BEST plays can damage our preparation and roster construction.

So, in honor of October 31, here are some strong Pace plays for Wednesday, inspired by quotes from John Carpenter’s original 1978 Halloween:

(Pace stats will be for last season until four weeks of data are accumulated)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors

Doctor Loomis: “You’ve got to believe me Officer; he is coming to Haddonfield. Because I know him, I’m his doctor! You must be ready for him. If you don’t, it’s your funeral!”

O/U – 235.5
’17-’18 Pace:
New Orleans – 1^st
Golden State – 5^th

Klay Thompson ($6,600) – You better be ready for the Warriors when you play them – it will be your funeral if you are not at the top of your game. You are likely to get 150 points dropped on you like the Bulls did the other night. We of course don’t expect another 14 three pointers and 50 points from Thompson like we saw then (although New Orleans allows opponents to make 35.5% from three), but this is still a player who is averaging 32 minutes a game and just under a point per minute for the season despite two or three abysmal games to start the year. Thompson’s matchup tonight against the Pels is ranked only 28^th in defensive real plus-minus for his position, giving him ample opportunity to shine again. You almost need Anthony Davis to play in this game, making it competitive enough for Klay and the starters to get fourth-quarter minutes.

Julius Randle ($6,600) – Here is a situation where the benefit could come from Davis NOT playing tonight. Randle’s usage with Davis out goes up to well over 30%. This added bonus would be on top of a player who is averaging 23 minutes and 33.5 fantasy points per game on the year. In fact, Randle leads all projected bench players in fantasy points per minute on the slate – over 1.4 per minute. Randle owners should hope he avoids being matched up with Draymond Green, as Golden State’s defense is only 24^th against opposing centers, but 9^th against power forwards.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

Annie: “Hey jerk! Speed kills!”

O/U – 234.5
’17-’18 Pace
Dallas – 26^th (up to 14^th so far this year)
Los Angeles – 3^rd

DeAndre Jordan ($8,300) – While the real life Mavericks have many things to figure out with their young team, for DFS purposes, we believe speed is a good thing – and it’s showing in output and opportunity for the Mavericks offensive unit. Jumping those 12 spots in Pace so far this year has increased their points per game from 102.3 last year to 111.1 this year, while their Offensive Rating has also jumped from 105.4 to 106.6. Most importantly, the faster pace translates to more offensive possessions and more opportunity for guys like Jordan. Getting to face a bottom-five team in both defensive efficiency and defensive real plus-minus at his position, he may not need to do much more than just overpower Javale McGee on the low block. Looking beyond matchup, the pace has overwhelmingly helped Jordan this season with his new team. DeAndre has seen spikes over last year in player efficiency rating, true shooting %, defensive rebounding percentage, assist %, and block %. – all with a slight dip in usage rate from last year.

Brandon Ingram ($7,100) – Ingram playing shooting guard against the likes of someone like Wesley Matthews truly is not fair. In fact, of all players who have played at least 15 minutes so far this season, Matthews is ranked 274^th in defensive rating. The Lakers also know that speed doesn’t kill on the basketball court. Despite dropping from 3^rd last season to 4^th this season in pace, their raw number has gone up from 100.97 to 106.42. Ingram missing three games depressed his price some, and I just can’t believe that the cost has not caught up to the fact that he is back in the starting lineup, this game has a 234.5 total, and that Ingram is going to have a broken lawn chair in front of him all night long on defense.

BONUS PLAYER

Doctor Loomis: “He’s gone from here! The evil is gone!”

Derrick Rose ($5,500) – With the locker room surely celebrating that the evil drama of Jimmy Butler may soon be gone, no player stands to benefit more while Butler goes on a self-inflicted hiatus than Derrick Rose. D-Rose already averages 28 minutes per game and a 24.8% true usage rate and with Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, and perhaps Andrew Wiggins missing this game, Rose is going to get as much work as he can handle. Look for plenty of Rose drives to the lane, with equal opportunity to score or dish to KAT. The offense will flow through Rose tonight while the team figures out how to get Jimmy Butler out of town.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Russell Wilson – 248 Passing Yards/3 TDs, 2 Rush/15 Rushing Yards

That’s three straight games with exactly three passing touchdowns, when Wilson had one such game in his first four to start the season. Along with the touchdown success, the following stats have all improved each week over the last three games: Yards, Passer Rating, Yards Per Attempt, and Completion Rate.

Perhaps more importantly, however, is the improvement of the offensive line since their miserable year in 2017. This season, the Seahawks’ O-line ranks 16^th in pass protection with a 6.7% adjusted sack rate, while they ranked 25^th in the stat last year at 8.1%. This improvement along the line and Wilson minimizing his rushing attempts have led to better throwing opportunities to a steadily improving and healing receiver corps.

The Seahawks next six games look appealing from a passing defense DVOA standpoints. They play the Chargers (ranked 16^th), Rams (7^th), Packers (15^th), Panthers (26^th), 49ers (23^rd), and Vikings (19^th). Feel free to fire up Wilson during that stretch.

Verdict – Take It

Adrian Peterson – 26 Rush/149 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 1 Target/1 Reception/7 Receiving Yards/1 TD

Peterson might just be the easiest player to predict in the NFL this year. Look at the chart below and see if you can spot the correlation:

Any game that has a close script, more specifically any game where the spread is less than a field goal, Peterson is heavily involved in the offensive attack. By no means do I think that Washington is game-planning him out when there are larger spreads, the narrative just becomes close game with a lead = Peterson churn out the yards and the clock, close game while trailing = Peterson is our best player gives the offense the best chance at positive yards. Blowout games where Washington trails become Chris Thompson time and blowout games where Washington leads become save Peterson’s legs for when we need him.

Washington is one of several meh teams in the NFL this year, good enough where it will be rare that they are blown out. Bad enough that they won’t destroy other teams. Interestingly, those outcomes have only happened once each this season. The Redskins rank 22^nd in offensive DVOA and 22^nd in overall defensive DVOA heading into week 9, according to Football Outsiders, aligning squarely within the narrative.

Nothing much needs to be said about Peterson’s talent. We all know he is incredible, even at age 33. What we must account for is predictive game flow.

Verdict – Take It (when the projected spread/game flow account for it)

Philip Lindsay – 18 Rush/95 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 3 Targets/3 Receptions/17 Receiving Yards

Lindsay continues to be incredibly efficient with more opportunity in the wake of the Royce Freeman injury. One of the most surprising stats of the season has to be that Lindsay is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards, having now passed fellow rookie Saquon Barkley (Lindsay is also sixth in yards per rush this year). One of those two was an undrafted free agent. One of them was drafted second overall. In this hot take culture in regards to running backs don’t matter (system over player is my stance), Lindsay v. Barkley is Exhibit 1A that high draft capital should never be spent on a running back.

Lindsay crossed the 60% threshold in week 8 for rushing market share, doubling what Devontae Booker saw when he was on the field. He also was a part of the passing game, drawing over 12% of the target share, a sure-fire sign that Lindsay is not game-flow dependent and the Broncos trust him in all down and yardage situations.

The Broncos simply have no choice but to let Lindsay run free man, even when Freeman comes back from his ankle injury. I will be watching his matchup against the stout Texans run defense closely next week – a true test of how reliable a workhorse Lindsay can be. He passes that test and he may be matchup proof for the balance of the schedule.

Verdict – Take It

Kenny Golladay – 1 Target/1 Reception/12 Receiving Yards

That’s three total targets for Babytron over the last two weeks. Frustrating and confusing. A sampling of the players who outscored Golladay in Week 8 reads as follows: Rashad Greene, Sr., Justin Hunter, Charone Peake, Quadree Henderson, Chad Williams, and I could keep going. I bet there is at least one name on that list you had not heard before now.

But we still can’t dismiss the 8.2 targets per game the five weeks prior. Depending on how you view Golladay’s role in the offense, it could just be that he has been facing tough assignments event though game scripts would seem to be in his favor. Both Miami and Seattle – his last two opponents – rank in the top half of the NFL against #3 receivers, according to Football Outsiders. Golladay saw 92% of the snaps in this game, and by all accounts still appears to be a primary weapon, but the Lions have just continued to feed who their hot hand is in the offense. In Week 8 that was Marvin Jones, Jr. and in Week 7 it was Kerryon Johnson.

This is more a gut call than anything else, but with their next five games against powerhouse offenses (Vikings, Bears twice, Panthers, Rams), I think they are going to give Golladay similar usage to his first five games. The touchdowns will be hit and miss on this team, but I believe the volume is coming.

Verdict – Best music video ever or worst music video ever?

The Price is Right: Week 8 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

Matthew Stafford – 40 pass attempts and 310 pass yards are strong, as are the two touchdowns, but his day could have been so much better if not for the soul-crushing interception he threw from the Seattle four-yard line in the fourth quarter. Grade: B

Marlon Mack – It was definitely Mack Daddy time against Oakland on Sunday. Season highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, targets, rushing share. You name it, he excelled in it yesterday. Behind an offensive line that is now fifth overall in adjusted line yards, Mack shows no signs of slowing down and his completely taken over the rushing game in Indy now that he is healthy. He just needs a nickname, does Mack have a nickname? Grade: A

Raheem Mostert – Despite being labeled as questionable and that his play would be “limited,” Matt Breida gobbled up the majority of the rushing for San Francisco. Mostert got two carries – and they were great – but still not enough for a grade. Grade: Incomplete

Jarvis Landry – Landry is operating like the anti-Adrian Peterson lately – impossible to predict. The targets were still there against the Steelers (12), and he did catch a healthy amount of passes (8), but for only 39 yards!!  Would you believe me if I told you this was Landry’s third lowest yards-per-reception game of his career? Well, you should. Grade: C+

Robert Woods – Josh Reynolds happened. I thought we were past that after last week. Mother Forking Shirt Balls. It certainly wasn’t a bad game with five catches for 70 yards for Woods, but in a projected shootout, we were all hoping for more. One of those Reynolds touchdowns could have gone his way, maybe? Grade: B-

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

There really is only way to eat a burrito, Justin Bieber. You can’t just open up all the foil and bite through the side of that thing like some kind of animal. Have some respect, man.

But when it comes to building DFS lineups, there are myriad ways to cross the cash line. Week eight will be an interesting experiment for the stars and scrubs approach or the more balanced attack. Coming off a week where many of the most popular value plays busted (looking at you Kearse, Goodwin, Snead, and countless others…), owners will reasonably be cautious of dipping down too far into the salary pool. Ownership trends will perhaps favor players with a higher floor, but without the prospect of a monster ceiling. Recency bias can do that to us.

At first glance, it does seem that there will be multiple avenues to successful roster construction in this eighth NFL week. Are you one who will lock in Gurley and his massive upside despite an $11,000 sticker price and then focus on value running backs? A popular strategy this week may also be to prioritize three of the next level of running backs, finding room for a James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Kerryon Johnson. In tournaments, a Rams/Packers game stack or a Mahomes/Kelce stack with value around them should have high percentages of ownership.

Whatever your risk tolerance, you can find a way to accumulate points in week eight. The destination has several roads that can get you there, but the best advice anyone can give is to put yourself in the best position possible to maximize points and value. Don’t be like this guy

Think about the options available in front of this guy. Unless he is an employee of the company that makes this exercise machine and knows the exact retail price, there are literally 998 better answers he could have given than $999. By locking in that bid, he gave himself a .001% chance to win. Did it work out? Yes, just like it worked out for some lucky joker in South Carolina this week in the Mega Millions. Was it the right process? No. In fact, if he believed the machine was less than $1,000 there was literally no worse answer he could have given.

Don’t force yourself into bad decisions. I have caught myself thinking from time to time, “well, I have Gurley, Mahomes, and Thielen. Kelce makes a good play with Mahomes, so maybe I will be ok with C.J. Prosise as my second RB.” Do not do that to yourself.

Let’s find some value for week eight.

Quarterback – Matthew Stafford ($7,300)

Several projection models love Stafford this week and have him slated as the top points per dollar quarterback on the slate. Stafford is priced the same as C.J. Beathard this week, which should tell you all you need to know about whether we can find value in playing him.

If we remove that week one Monday Night Football debacle against the Jets, Stafford has an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, never throwing fewer than two TDs a game.

The matchup, as you may have heard, is not nearly as intimidating as it might have been in years past against Seattle. One of my favorite stats for this week is that Seattle is fifth worst in the league in quarterback hurries per game. Matt Stafford at home in a dome and with a clean pocket is something I want in my life.

Running Back – Raheem Mostert ($5,600)

Last week I posted nothing more than a chart displaying tight end points allowed by the Buccaneers in an effort to persuade you to play David Njoku. Today, I present an equal level of laziness in the form of this chart:

This play hinges on the availability of Matt Breida on Sunday. If Breida misses the game, it will be tremendously tough not to lock in Mostert against a team allowing the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns through seven weeks.

One interesting tidbit I ran across – according to Pro Football Focus, Mostert has the fourth best elusive rating the past three weeks.

Running Back – Marlon Mack ($6,700)

I grew up in the age of

Which then turned over its place in Mack vernacular to “Return of the Mack,” but Kriss Kross will always be the OG. To show my respect, this will be another smash spot for the miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity Mack daddy.

Now, he is listed as the questionable Mack Daddy right now, so all this is for naught if he doesn’t play, but last week’s game should have us Krossing our fingers that he does. In a similarly scripted game against the Bills, Mack saw 37 snaps to just 17 for Nyheim Hines and gobbled up 51.4% of the rushing share while no other player saw more than 16%.

I am getting excited about matching Mack and his 9^th ranked 6.4 yards per touch against the Raiders and their 29^th ranked defense. The Raiders are already in Tank Time and Mack is prepared to capitalize.

Wide Receiver – Jarvis Landry ($6,700)

Some straight facts. Landry’s ranks in the following categories this season:

Red Zone Targets – 6^th in NFL
% Red Zone Target Share – 1^st
Targets per game – 3^rd

Steelers allow 110.9 yards per game to opposing team’s lead wideouts according to Rich Hribar. Landry finally started clicking with Baker Mayfield in the second half of last week’s game (and his price only went up $200). If that continues, Landry could be set to take off.

Wide Receiver – Robert Woods ($7,600)

I am of the mind that you almost have to have a piece of this game in your main lineups. I know, I know –  I should go read what I wrote in the intro. That doesn’t mean I going to jam in Lance Kendricks just to have some exposure, it just means I will prioritize finding a player who fits into a reasonable roster build. For me, that means Gurley, the quarterbacks, Davante Adams, or Robert Woods.

With Cooper Kupp still out this game, and with a slate-high total of 56.5, there is a perfect storm brewing for Woods. A pie with limited options inside it already remains without a key piece, opening up a larger slice for Woods. And the pie grows much larger this week due to the opponent. The Packers are a head-scratching 9.5 point underdog here, but they are going to score. I will be mildly surprised if Aaron Rodgers lets this turn into a blowout.

The Packers are sneaky bad against teams’ number one receivers, ranked 29^th in DVOA. Woods, who has led the Rams in target share the two weeks Cupp has missed is clearly Jared Goff’s favorite weapon in the open field. Kupp and his 11 red zone targets will not be on the field Sunday, so in a shootout I want the most reliable weapon.

Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime match-ups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

Last night I was doing totally normal people things like looking through historical NBA data and was struck by a few facts looking at the long-term history of the NBA. I put together this quick-and-dirty chart to illustrate what I found:

As you can see on the gray trend line, the pace of play has been on the upswing for about seven or eight years. This is obvious; any casual NBA fan checking out final scores of games could give you that groundbreaking piece of analysis. What has also been clear to anyone watching games is the corresponding rise of three points shots – represented here by the green columns. (The Rockets, in fact, became the first team ever to attempt more three pointers than two point shots in 2017-2018.) There is almost a perfect correlation between pace and three point attempts in that period.

What struck me as odd, however, is the trend on free throw attempts. One would think that all types of scoring would be on the rise with the increased pace of play. Faster games taking less of the shot clock each possession would mean more three pointers, more two pointers, more free throw attempts, etc. Digging into why this would be, I noticed something striking. While total field goal attempts increased 12.3% since 2010-2011, from 81.2 per game to 91.2 per game, three point attempts have increased 76% in that same time – 18.0 per game to 31.6 per game.

Since shooting fouls occur beyond the three-point line about 1% of the time (according to 82games.com), it would make sense that a meteoric rise in threes would result in free throw rates that are the lowest since the NBA introduced the three pointer. The data backs it up: the lowest seven seasons for free throw attempts in NBA history are the last seven season.

So as we consider how pace of play helps our decisions in DFS, we should consider the ramifications that higher pace and a three point revolution have on statistics and make sure we are not just targeting the right teams, but also the right type of players who can take advantage. Today’s pacesetters will be a sampling of those types of players.

(Pace stats will be for last season until four weeks of data are accumulated)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns

O/U – 236.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Lakers – 3rd
Suns – 2^nd

Kyle Kuzma ($7,200) – The pickings are a little slim at power forward tonight, so why not lock in a player who has presently hit the trifecta of opportunity, usage, and matchup. With Brandon Ingram still suspended, Kuzma saw an increase in his minutes to 45 (in an overtime loss), but also saw his usage%, effective field goal percentage skyrocket despite the heavy minutes. This game is going to be a track meet tonight, and for however long the Suns choose to stick needles in their eyes playing Ryan Anderson on defense, Kuzma should dominate.

T.J. Warren ($5,700) – Of all bench players on the main slate on Wednesday, Warren has the second highest true usage (26.6%) and fantasy points per game (31.3). He has accomplished this while only averaging 23 minutes per game – less than the likes of DeAndre’ Bembry, Jared Dudley, and Damyean Dotson. Warren may not be a starter, but he is certainly a finisher, and the likes of Anderson and Trevor Ariza may not be long for this game.

Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

O/U – 234
’17-’18 Pace:
Mavericks – 26^th
Hawks – 8^th

Wesley Matthews ($5,400) – Matthews is one of those boring veteran players that you think about from time to time and remember “oh yeah, he still is in the league.” Tonight, however, should be an opportunity for him to stand out in a truly fast-paced game – especially at his low price. Matthews is unexcitedly middle of the pack for usage among shooting guards, but he draws the nuts defensive matchup against the Hawks, ranked 25^th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards. Wes hasn’t played less than 31 minutes this season and is top six in three pointers attempted per game (and hitting 34.5%). Circling back to the data from the introduction to this piece, this means it could be a blow up game for him.

Taurean Prince ($7,200) – I fell in love with Prince last year after the Hawks committed to increasing his minutes when they entered The Tank Zone. His ability to fill up the box score – especially with steals – is just so appealing. The point barrage has continued this season as he is fourth among main slate small forwards in fantasy points per minute, behind three guys you might have heard of (Butler, Durant, King James). He also checks in at 4^th among SF with a 25.6% true usage rate, all while being the third lowest SF minutes per game. In a game with a strong total and a spread of only one point, expect Prince’s minutes to easily reach a season-high.

Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls

O/U – 230.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Hornets – 11^th
Bulls – 10^th

Kemba Walker ($8,400) – Yes, he is the most expensive player in this game, $700 more than the player discussed below, but Walker’s ceiling is unlimited in this game. Walker’s game low this season is 35.9 Fanduel points, reached in only 26 minutes in a blowout. Expanding further, KW is a top-five point guard in minutes, fantasy points per game, usage and fantasy points per minute – at a price equal to Kyle Lowry. The icing on the cake is his defensive matchup. Walker will face Cameron Payne with Kris Dunn out of the Bulls’ lineup. Payne is ranked 146^th among guards for defensive win shares in the young season and is allowing an eye-bleeding 122 points per 100 possessions.

Zach LaVine ($7,700) – With Kris Dunn out for an extended period of time, the Bull’s offense should flow through LaVine. In the two games where Dunn was inactive to start the year, LaVine’s usage percentage was at almost 32%, a number that would have been top five in the NBA last year. With such a small sample, we have to hold out hope that the trend will continue, but with the opportunity for playing time in front of him, we can count on LaVine to seize control. LaVine is second among all shooting guards in fantasy points per game tonight, and with only Jeremy Lamb in his way, the scoring explosion should continue.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

FD-Guru had a day for the ages yesterday. A record of 12-0 across all slates is one of the most amazing runs I have seen in DFS. If you are not in on these lineups, you should be running as fast as you can to get access to this streak.

Not all of us, however, were so lucky.

Yesterday was not a fun football day for one of my lineups. For the first time in the 2018 NFL season, I did not turn a profit. I can’t say there was anything different about my research or preparation. There were no unusual distractions or schedules that threw me off my game. The only variable that I can point to that seemed different in week 7 from other weeks this season was a mental one. Confidence.

My confidence was sky-high by the time lock hit on Sunday afternoon. The main cash lineup I created earlier in the week held until the late-week news about the Carlos Hyde trade. That moved me off Tarik Cohen (whom I touted in my piece last week) and onto Nick Chubb. Chubb didn’t end up as a bad play, with high volume, more than 60 yards and a touchdown, but that swap ended up being mistake number five in a lineup that quickly sent my irrational confidence spiraling into despair.

Mistake number one was paying (extremely) down for quarterback and starting C.J. Beathard. Scouring past box scores and trying to fit prior results into a current narrative is a recipe for failure. Beathard had some marginal success recently but even against a Rams defense that wasn’t playing up to par in the secondary, their defensive line just dominated during the game. Seven sacks and multiple pressures later, Beathard had nowhere to go except short-to-intermediate passes to George Kittle. Beathard has shown some flashes in past games but at the end of the day, he is a backup for a reason. Backups against the Rams defense are usually

The overreaching confidence in Beathard also funneled Marquise Goodwin into my lineup at a low price which then led me to believe I had a strong feel for cheap wide receiver plays. The result of that stupidity was locking in Jermaine Kearse and his 0.0 points into all lineups. If you’re not doing the math at home, that’s about 11 points across three lineup slots.

But not to fear. All of those cheap players offered me the opportunity to plug in Todd Gurley (of course, who didn’t?), Adam Thielen (god of all wide receivers), and Ezekiel Elliott. I had hope.

SHUT UP, Zeke. You did not feast. These lineup debacles plus the swap out of Cohen (who outscored Chubb by 4.3) left me dead on arrival.

Confidence is a scary thing. Believing that you will be able to force a square peg into a round hole because you have done it before is DFS Psychology 101. But just as we can’t let confidence play a role in lineup decision-making, neither can we with doubt. We press on and sharpen our process and get it right the next week.

In a weird and upside-down week 7, what performances can we leave or take?

Deshaun Watson – 139 Passing Yards/1 TD, 13 Rushing Yards

There were many qualifiers as to why Watson was not a cash lineup play this week, but rather a stronger tournament option.

1. On the road
2. Against the Jaguars
3. Punctured lung (which meant he had ride a bus for 12 hours to the game instead of fly)
4. Cracked rib
5. Offensive line plays Red Rover instead of blocking people

One of Watson’s otherworldly performances was not necessarily anticipated in this spot, but we were hoping for more passing yards than the BACKUP Jaguars quarterback. The Texans learned early in the game that they had something going with Lamar Miller and rode #MillerTime to his first 100-yard game in two years plus a rushing touchdown. The touches and yards were Miller’s most of the season and it led to his first rushing TD as well.

Clearly the game plan was to limit’s Watson’s exposure to a pass rush and tackles while on the run. His 24 attempts were Watson’s lowest of the season. The low number combined with the 50% completion percentage (lowest of his career) scream to me that the Texans are just trying to keep Watson protected and healthy until the week 10 bye. Better games are ahead against the Colts, Browns, and Eagles still on the schedule.

Verdict – Leave It

Kerryon Johnson – 19 Rushes/158 Rushing Yards, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/21 Receiving Yards

Tough one to gauge here because the results have to be taken with a Theo Riddick-sized grain of salt. Johnson easily had season highs in snap %, rushing share, rushing attempts, rushing yards, and target share. His 8.3 yards per carry also can’t be dismissed as noisy – there were multiple long runs on the afternoon. The rub on Johnson all year is the Lions’ refusal to play him on third down passing situations and near the goal line.

That narrative changed somewhat yesterday, and only partially due to Riddick’s absence. While Johnson did get more run on third downs by default (Ameer Abdullah only played seven snaps), he touched the ball six times in the red zone on Sunday. To put that in perspective, he had only received five red zone touches in the first six weeks. He did not convert his closest carries to the goal line while LeGarrette Blount did, but the opportunity increased substantially. Based on his past two games, Johnson is really forcing the Lions’ hand where they will have to commit more to his game. Even when Riddick comes back the Lions have no choice but to continue to carry on with Kerryon.

Verdict –

Marlon Mack – 19 Rushes/126 Rushing Yards/1 TD, 3 Targets/2 Receptions/22 Receiving Yards/1 TD

Your main slate running back performance of the day, friends. Those who put Mack in counting on an increased snap share and some clock-killing time were richly rewarded. In just three games this season, Mack’s raw snap count has increased significantly: 18-24-37. Snap percentage: 29.5-34.8-56.1. The waiver wire darling from several weeks ago, Nyheim Hines’ snap count looks like this over the past four weeks: 62-56-30-17. He only saw the field for 25.8% of the snaps on Sunday in what quickly became a Colts runaway.

Since he returned from injury, Mack has averaged 6.9 yards per carry against the Jets and Bills, two teams in the top half of NFL run defenses, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. If he is able to sustain the volume and efficiency against some of the soft matchups ahead on his schedule such as Oakland, Tennessee (twice), and the New York Giants, we could be looking at a top-15 running back the rest of the way, particularly as Andrew Luck and his weapons begin to get healthy.

Verdict – Take It

Michael Gallup – 5 targets/3 Receptions/81 Receiving Yards/1 TD

If you haven’t watched the move Michael Gallup put on the defender on his 49-yard touchdown catch, please pause and go find it. I mean, the defender looks like he is stuck to the grass after Gallup gives him the double move. However, I just don’t know if something like that is sustainable or predictive. The defender looked like he didn’t even belong in the NFL on that play, so a more competent player might have defended that well and prevented the score. I can’t know for sure, but the box score looks like two catches for 32 yards without the play, so let’s pump the brakes just a little.

The opportunity from the past two weeks is certainly encouraging. Gallup has been on the field for 81% and 85% of the snaps for the Cowboys, but the box scores still show no more than three catches in a game, a ceiling of 45 yards before yesterday, and only an 18.6% share of the team’s air yards on the season. I personally need to see Gallup featured more before I buy in.

Verdict – Leave It

The Price is Right: Week 7 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

C.J. Beathard – See above. Throw up in my mouth. Grade: D-

Tarik Cohen – “Get the ball to Cohen” may be what’s written on the locker room whiteboard these days for the Bears. He is the game plan now. This is five straight weeks his snap count has increased and it looks like Jordan Howard is now a short-yardage, sometimes-goal-line guy. Grade: A

Frank Gore – The 10 rushes against the Lions certainly should have produced more than 29 yards based on the struggles we laid out last week Detroit has had stopping the run. The benefactor of those struggles, it turns out, was Kenyan Drake who despite only rushing six times, turned one of them into a 54-yard touchdown. Not the outcome that was expected, but Gore was mostly shut out of the fun. Grade: C-

Willie Snead – Joe Flacco certainly spent time trying to feed Snead the ball, as he threw seven passes up his way. Snead was only able to come down with three of them for 23 yards, adding one carry for 13 yards. So much for the #RevengeGame story-line. John Brown ended up being the play, but he – like Gallup – benefited from an awful blown defensive assignment, which turned his good day into a monster day with the late 14-yard touchdown. And RIP to Justin Tucker’s PAT streak. Grade: C+

David Njoku – He scored a touchdown because it was an inevitability. Njoku also was targeted six times, which has been a consistent theme lately with Baker Mayfield under center – he has averaged nine targets a game over the past four weeks. Playing Tampa Bay, Njoku was a guaranteed 10 points in your lineup. Grade: A

This week’s edition of The Price is Right is brought to you by hindsight bias. The lesser-known cousin of recency bias, hindsight bias is when our brain tells us that the outcome of certain events was predictable only after information becomes available after the event. I few weeks ago, I fell victim to this. I root for the Houston Texans and in week two, they traveled to play the Titans. The day before the game, it was announced that Marcus Mariota would not play and that Blaine Gabbert would be the starting QB. This news got me excited enough to, shall we say, make a financial investment in the game and the prospect of the Texans covering the three-point spread. Well, a few hours later, the Texans had been Gabberted into a three-point loss.

I spent the next day mentally uncovering all the reasons why it should have been clear that the Texans would lose that game. Their ultra-penetrable offensive line too frequently leaves Deshaun Watson exposed. The Titans’ new coach, Mike Vrabel, spent the last several years with the Texans and knows the playbook. The Titans’ young, speedy receivers were mismatches for the slow, aging secondary of the Texans.

In reality, the available evidence led me to the right decision. Blaine Gabbert has enough game film that we know who he is. The Texans pass rush is back to its dominant form. There was a reason the Texans were favored, even on the road.

Hindsight bias and recency bias are EVERYWHERE and are prominent factors in all aspects of our lives. But is there, you may ask, a connection to The Price is Right with hindsight bias? Brothers and sisters, of course there is.

On The Price is Right, there is a game called Punch-A-Bunch. Essentially, there is a board with slots filled with cards that have dollar amounts on them. The contestant can win punches on the board and after each card is pulled, they must determine if they want to keep the cash amount on the card or press their luck with the next one. A typical Punch-A-Bunch board looks like this:

Five rows, 10 columns, 50 total spaces that can be punched. You can see beneath the board the breakdown of the odds of winning each amount. Chances are slim that you will win some of the big cash, so contestants will almost always stop when they reach something that gets into the four figures. So with the stage set, take a look at this jamoke:

OK. I mean, where to start? A contestant has a 5/50 – 10% – chance of winning between 5K and 25K (and this guy may have had a max of 10K since it was clearly from several years ago). Somehow, even with those slim odds, he pulls $5,000 on this first card. Way to go, leather Kangol hat guy.

Now if you were to find this guy and ask him if he feels like he made the right decision in throwing that card out and moving on, I am sure he would say he did. But he would certainly not have rationality on his side. He actually decreased his chances of winning at least $5,000 by 20% when he decided not to take it. He already found one of the cards out of 50 spots, which had a 10% chance of happening. Now, he has four cards left of at least $5,000 with 49 cards remaining. His odds are now 8% that he will find another one of equal value and only a 4% chance of finding one of greater value. And he does. I hope he bought some lottery tickets with that cash.

In the end the results worked out for him despite the bad process. How many times can we think back to when we have been on opposing sides of variance? Some decisions work out when they shouldn’t (such as when I played Tevin Coleman in my week six cash lineup – he scored!) and some don’t when they should (like when I played the Bears DST – they sucked!). Trust the process. Trust the Process.

Crap. Except forget about two of those guys.

Each of our players highlighted this week will have some element of hindsight attached to them. We must decipher how we view past performances, and not let hindsight cloud our judgment.

Quarterback – C.J. Beathard ($6,400)

Depending on how you view Derek Anderson (I view him like I view these kids who make a fortune opening up toys on Youtube videos), there is not a starting QB cheaper on the main slate than Beathard. Not Osweiler, not Bortles, not Sam Darnold. On the other hand, Beathard is top 12 in QB points over the past two weeks, scoring more than Rivers, Bortles, Cousins, Dalton, and others. Beathard has multiple passing touchdowns in each of the past three weeks and has even averaged over 15 rushing yards during that time. How do we balance these opposing forces?

The matchup in week seven, I believe, can help tip the scales. The Los Angeles Rams have given up the following QB lines the past three weeks:

Case Keenum – 322 yards, 2 TDs
Russell Wilson – 198 yards, 3 TDs
Kirk Cousins – 422 Yards, 3 TDs

They are clearly struggling to contain the pass while missing Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. In fact, Football Outsiders has them pegged as only the 14^th strongest pass defense by DVOA, a very average number. As a 9.5-point underdog, game flow will dictate the 49ers to pass. Look for George Kittle and Marquise Goodwin to draw significant targets.

Running Back – Tarik Cohen ($6,600)

The 49.5 total in this Bears/Patriots matchup is the fourth highest on the slate and a game in which we should have some exposure. Highlighted in my Take It or Leave It column on October 15, Cohen’s usage and value of touches are on the way up. To recap, Cohen’s snaps, targets, and receptions have risen four straight weeks, and his target market share has been at least 30% the past two games. With a team total projected over 23 points, the Bears must deploy their most lethal weapons to go head to head with the Patriots.

The matchup, on paper and in the eye test, don’t seem terribly daunting either. The Patriots give up the fifth most passing yards to running backs in 2018 at over 60 per game. Combined with the fact that the Bears have risen up to #8 on Pro Football Focus’ offensive line rankings and the makings of a perfect storm of open space may present itself for the much more dynamic Bears’ running back.

Running Back – Frank Gore ($5,600)

Do you have any idea what kind of creepy shit you get when do a Google image search for “Gore”? There’s something wrong with you people. I implore you to add “Frank” to your search if you are looking for the Dolphins’ 223-year old running back.

This play is purely about matchup for me and how opportunistic it might be for FRANK Gore. Detroit is rated presently as the 27^th worst run defense by Football Outsiders. They have, in fact, given up the 4^th most Fanduel points per game to running backs through the first six weeks, and the three teams that have given up more (Chiefs, Cardinals, and Falcons) are not on the main slate.

Gore’s usage appears solid, despite Miami unleashing Drake more in the passing game. In the last four weeks, Gore has seen his carries increase in each contest and he finally crossed the 100-yard threshold in week six. He also is still averaging 4.9 yards per carry and will continue to do so until the end of time.

Wide Receiver – Willie Snead ($5,400)

The Saints against #1 wide receivers when Marshon Lattimore plays? Very good. Against all other receivers whether on the outside or in the slot? Not so good. In fact, I would like to highlight (or rather lowlight) some pertinent ratings for Ken Crawley, the Saints defensive back who will likely cover Snead in the slot on Sunday. On Crawley’s assignments:

Passer Rating Allowed – 158.3 – #76 at his position
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Snap – 0.62 – #73
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target – 2.9 – #74
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game – 18.3 – #75
(all from Player Profiler)

Snead saw season highs in targets, receptions, average depth of target, and target share in week six. For as good as he was, those numbers all have room for improvement this week in a prime matchup.

Tight End – David Njoku ($5,700)

Let’s not get cute and overthink this. I will give you one chart.

Tampa Bay gives up more than two more Fanduel points per game to tights ends than any other team. Giddy up.

Using Pace as a leading indicator, what players in prime matchups can we look to for value and a higher than usual DFS points floor.

In NBA DFS, there is a simple equation I try to use for lineup construction:

Pace of Play
+ Opportunity
+ Efficiency 
Dollars

More than any other raw stat such as points per game or minutes or even +/-, these under-the-hood factors break through all the noise to find the roots from which production can grow. More advanced stats, freely available at NBA.com or many other places, such as Pace Rating, Usage% and Effective FG% paint a much clearer picture of how players are used and how we can maximize their value.

I’m not that good at the maths so I have not found the right quantitative combination of factors and stats to turn my equation into a featured product and sell it for $39.99 a month, but as a qualitative measure these three variables are always on my radar. I am usually asking myself the following questions:

What is the game’s total over/under?
What Pace rank do the two teams have this year?
Who is in the starting lineup?
What injuries or limitations do players have on a slate?
What players are stepping into roles opened up by injuries?
What aspects of a player’s game correlate well with the matchup (i.e. % of points from 3-pointers versus a bad 3-point defensive team)?
What scheduling factors do we need to consider such as four games in five nights or veterans needing rest?

For the first full NBA slate of the season, let’ open up some Pace Picante Sauce and dip into the lineups and matchups. I know, that was terrible. I’ll just go

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks

O/U – 215.5
’17-’18 Pace:
Atlanta – 8^th
New York – 17^th

Interestingly during this preseason, both of these teams took quite a significant step up in pace. The Hawks jumped up to 3^rd in the league while the Knicks made a larger leap to 10^th. With Trae Young running the show down in Hotlanta these days, you can expect some rapid pace out of the Hawks. Tonight, because of injuries, Vince Carter is expected to be in the Atlanta starting five. There is actually some video of Young and Carter practicing together that has emerged this week.

Alex Len ($5,100) – Those same injuries have opened up some opportunity for Len as a tremendous value play. With both John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon out tonight, there is next to no competition for Len to have massive minutes. Based on several sites, Len is projected to have the highest points-per-dollar number on the slate, and should be locked into cash lineups as well as tournaments.

Tim Hardaway, Jr. ($6,300) – The Knicks are also dealing with their share of injuries, with Kristaps Porzingis, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Courtney Lee all likely out tonight. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway are likely to do the bulk of the heavy lifting and ball-handling at MSG. Hardaway was a top-10 guard last season in percentage of three pointers taken for their team, and he hit 38.5% of them. Any significant increase in number of possessions for the Knicks could mean a major boost in scoring while Unicorn Porzingis is on the shelf.

New Orleans Pelican @ Houston Rockets

O/U – 230
’17-’18 Pace:
New Orleans – 1^st
Houston – 14^th

Any time we see an NBA game with an over/under of 230 or higher, we need some major exposure. This game is four points higher than any other contest on the slate and has the makings of a 1980’s-Alex-English-style shootout with star power from every position on the court. Your usual suspects – Harden, Paul, the Brow, Capela, Mirotic – should all feast, but there might also be some value gems in this one.

Jrue Holiday ($8,300) – It’s crazy to think that a player at $8,300 is the fourth priciest player in a single game, but here we are. With Rajon Rondo out of town, and Elfrid Payton new to this system, Holiday is the engine that should make this offense run for the time being. Holiday posted his highest career eFG% last year which tends to happen when you play alongside a passer like Rondo and offensive juggernaut like Anthony Davis. You may have heard that James Harden is not exactly known for his defense these days, so feel free to deploy Holiday without hesitation.

James Ennis ($3,500) – There is actually a starter available in this game for the stone cold minimum price. Losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, Houston replaced them with Ennis and Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is a zero defensively (and some might say offensively at this point), so look for Ennis to log a decent share of the minutes, especially if a defensive presence is needed at the end of the game. A career 35.9% shooter from three, he fits well into the Rockets live-by-the-three-die-by-the-three mentality.

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns

O/U – 215
’17-’18 Pace:
Dallas – 26^th
Phoenix – 2^nd

Dallas is another team pressing the gas this preseason, creeping up to 21^st, but it’s Phoenix that will keep this game a track meet with their young, athletic players all over the floor. Even though the starting forwards for Phoenix might nominally be Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson, I believe we will see heavy minutes from Josh Jackson and T.J Warren, two players who can catch fire in a hurry. Unless you were one of the nine people paying attention to late-season Suns game last year, you might have missed Jackson’s production. Here are his last five games of the season with Fanduel points:

But I guess I am burying the lede here somewhat. This game touts the HIGHLY anticipated matchup of super-rookies Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic. As just a pure basketball fan, I cannot wait to see what these guys have in store for us.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,800) – Harrison Barnes is officially out for this game, opening up increased usage for DFS (hey, that’s convenient). Smith became a nice piece for the Mavericks towards the end of last season. On Fanduel, he averaged 25.9 points per game while seeing 34.5 minutes of floor time in his last four games. I know Barnes is on the big contract, but there may be some opportunity here for Smith to show the Mavericks what he can do with an expanded role.

Deandre Ayton ($7,200) – Take a photo of that price, because I imagine it’s the last time we see it that low this season, and maybe for Ayton’s entire career. Tonight we’ve got guys like Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, and Nikola Vucevic priced ahead of Ayton. As the season starts to even out, we will likely see some heavyweight battles for Center pricing – with Towns, Drummond, Jokic, and Ayton as the Mount Rushmore of Centers in 2018-2019. The matchup tonight with Jordan may seem daunting, but the numbers from last year tell a different tale. In fact, Jordan was the 49^th ranked center in total defensive win shares across his 77 games. Ayton is just too fast and too springy to let this matchup scare me.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Dak Prescott – 183 Passing Yards/2 TDs, 82 Rushing Yards/1 TD

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars of all teams, Prescott scores 33.52 fantasy points and ends Week 6 as the fifth highest scoring QB behind Mahomes, Winston, Ryan, and Brocktober Osweiler.

I don’t think anyone in the DFS industry saw this type of performance coming. I can’t remember seeing a single “play Dak” take out there last week. Maybe some MME, 150-lineup players sprinkled in some contrarian Dak here and there, but this was certainly not on the radar with all of the other potential QB boom spots available.

Truly it was the rushing that props up this fantasy score. Without the 82 yards and score on the ground, Prescott finishes as the 17^th or 18^th best QB on the day. Dak was so good on the ground, just his rushing totals would have slotted him as the 10^th best RB on the main slate. But is the rushing sustainable?

Prescott’s history would push us towards probably not at this high level. A quick glance at Dak’s game log on Pro Football Reference shows that the 11 attempts were his most ever (next highest is 8), and the 82 yards are also a career high (37 yards more than his previous high!).

This was such a weird game all the way around. I don’t think Jacksonville actually made it to Arlington. Someone was in their uniforms, but I think the Jags got lost in Fort Worth or Irving or something. This game and performance screams fluke to me – the pass attempts and yards were both in the bottom half of Prescott’s career games and were nothing special.

Verdict – Leave It

Tarik Cohen – 5 Rushes/31 Yards, 9 Targets/7 Receptions/90 Yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost

Another weird game. Glancing through one of the Fanduel tournaments I entered, the Bears DST was 34% owned (including by me) in one! So while the Jordan Howard and Bears DST correlation did not materialize as expected, we should evaluate Cohen’s usage and prognosticate its implications.

Through the Bears first five games, four of them have been decided by seven points or less. This is important because Cohen is not being game-scripted out so far. Besides the beating they gave Tampa Bay – were Cohen was a key part of the game plan – the Bears are not running up the score and then letting Howard run out the clock.

Depending on whether you are a Howard or Cohen owner, there is an interesting development happening with the Bears’ running back usage. Here are the snap counts for the two primary running backs since the beginning of the season:

That’s the right direction for Cohen owners and the wrong direction for Howard. Amplifying those numbers is Cohen’s market share of the targets. In the Bears first three games, Cohen never had more than 11% of the pie, but in the past two games, he has seen at least 30% of the target share.

Matt Nagy is finding creative ways to use Cohen and they may never turn back. There will surely be some grind out the clock games for Howard over the balance of the season, but in terms of opportunity and value targets, the arrow is pointing up for Cohen.

Verdict – Since it’s almost Halloween…

Albert Wilson – 9 Targets/6 Receptions/155 Yards, 2 TDs

Your highest-scoring wide receiver on the main slate, ladies and gentlemen. Just like everyone predicted. This guy was doing some crazy things out there with Brocktober today. However, I noticed an interesting Tweet yesterday afternoon:

In Wilson’s two biggest plays this season, he exploded for 149 Yards After the Catch, when the expected yards After the Catch were just six. That’s both exciting and concerning at the same time. Digging around, you might see some Tyreek Hill lite comparisons out there for Wilson, and I think that’s fair. What that also implies is that there will be some tremendous boom and bust weeks. For example, his fantasy points per week so far in 2018 are 5.3, 12, 26.5, 4.1, 6.8, and 37 yesterday. So he is always getting you something, but in only two of six games has he had these other-worldly performances.

Simply put, Wilson is probably best reserved as a tournament play. He is someone like a Desean Jackson or a Robby Anderson who can unleash these monster games at any time, but it’s not worth banging your head in a car door to predict how consistently they will come.

Verdict – Leave It

David Njoku – 12 Targets(!)/7 Receptions/55 Yards, 1 TD

This may be an obvious answer, but it’s worth highlighting the game and usage that Njoku has over the past month. This guy is on the verge of forcing his way into the top tier of tight ends if he hasn’t done so already. Every metric for Njoku is trending up the past month: air yards share, target share, number of targets, receptions, and he finally caught his first touchdown on Sunday.

Njoku’s next opponent? The Falcons, coming off giving up a touchdown to Cameron Brate on his only catch and a 4-62-1 line to a one-legged O.J. Howard.

You ever see that movie The Wizard, with Fred Savage and a bunch of other 1980’s mainstays? In the final scene, the main character is competing in a video game championship and it is the first time that Super Mario Bros 3 is unveiled. The kid figures out how to warp and gets to go to some next-level gaming on the other chumps.

That’s what it will probably feel like with Njoku only $5,700 on next Sunday’s slate. He’s a Week 7 cheat code.

Verdict – Take It

The Price is Right: Week 6 Recap

Where I grade my value play selections from the previous slate.

Jameis Winston – This was a smash spot and everyone knew it going in. He even added 31 rushing yards to make up for the two interceptions. Holy crap, the Bucs and Falcons have bad defenses. Grade: A

Jordan Howard – As highlighted above, I should have noticed the downward usage trend for Howard. I still thought it would be a churn out the clock game, especially when Tannehill was ruled out, but Howard needed a 19-yard run in overtime just to establish a respectable fantasy total. Grade: C-

Chris Carson – The touches and yards were ok, but having him get shutout after multiple attempts at the goal line was tilting. At first and goal from the 2-yard line in the first quarter, Carson rushes for one yard, gets denied a TD because of a false start penalty, then rushes for no gain. After building a 27-3 lead, Carson didn’t even see a touch in the fourth quarter. Grade: C+

Mohamed Sanu – Left very early with a hip injury so we have to grade on a little bit of a curve here. He did catch his only two targets, one of which went for a 35-yard touchdown. His aDOT on those two targets was his highest of the season, so I believe a big day was in store. His hip is something to monitor, however, since it Iimited him in practice last week. Grade: A-

Jarvis Landry – Nine targets: Awesome. Two catches: Awful. Not sure what to do here because this was one of his worst games as a pro. The only one assuredly worse was a two-catch, five-yard game three years ago against Baltimore. He only had five targets in that game, so we may have to chalk this up to a bad connection with Mayfield and sometimes results don’t match up with process. Grade: B-

In this space, we will look each week at players who have strong potential to outperform their price on FanDuel so we can invite them to come on down into our lineups. This is not a play all these picks column, but rather a place to uncover value to allow us to unlock massive upside in our lineups.

Of all the things that I enjoy that define the entirety of my nerdiness, game-show game theory stands out. Game-show game theory is truly what nerds think is nerdy. I understand, but I gotta be me. I can scream just as loud at my team, the Texans, as I can at the bidding strategies of the three contestants on Final Jeopardy. I need to make that confession before we dive in here.

It’s safe to assume that everyone has heard of Contestant’s Row on The Price is Right. If you have any knowledge of the show, you understand that this is the process of four contestants bidding on a prize to earn their way on stage for a chance at the larger prizes and a shot at the Showcase Showdown at the end. What I think is much less known is HOW to maximize your chances of winning Contestant’s Row.

Taking advantage of the inefficiencies of that Contestant’s Row process is key to an optimal bid and a better chance at a Drew Carey hug. Seeing a model walk by with a collection of designer sunglasses and then guessing their value is just not an everyday occurrence. People are not used to that type of analysis and pressure and are not good at it. Depending on the order of your guess, it’s probably best to play off the other contestants instead of a random guessing game where you have zero knowledge or experience. For example:

Now, on The Price is Right you can just hope to get lucky and that some kind of inefficiency falls into your lap

or you can look at each game in front of you and attempt to leverage it to your advantage. There has even been research done on the optimal strategy of every game on The Price is Right and how rational are the decisions of contestants on the show. If you want to take down the games, the information is out there.

I say all this to reference an excellent point that was made in Sammy Reid’s piece on Rotogrinders in Week 5 – The Reid Option. In the piece, he talks about his belief that cheaper wide receivers have become the new market inefficiency in the 2018 NFL. We have never seen scores this high or passing with this frequency, so until the market (DFS sites, other players, etc.) catch up to it, we should continue to use it to our advantage. In previous weeks, these value players have all led to winning lineups:

Tyler Boyd
Sterling Shepherd
Robby Anderson
Kenny Stills
Desean Jackson
Ted Ginn, Jr.
Calvin Ridley
Keke Coutee
Donte Moncrief
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

None of these are guys who were in upper tiers of preseason ranks or were players drafted in the top 10 rounds of any season-long league. But as long as these types of pass-catchers continue to be week-winners, we will continue to try and unearth them from helpful data like snap counts, target share, and opportunities close to the goal line.

Each slate sets up uniquely and there will always be a Week 1 James Conner or a Week 5 T.J. Yeldon, but the wide receivers seem to be dominating with so much more frequency. Fading these plays can leave us on the outside looking in. With running backs priced up in Week 6, those values are going to be key to cashing.

Quarterback – Jameis Winston ($7,400)

The troublesome thing about game theory is that it can too often lead to paralysis by analysis. Some things you just can’t overthink. I am sure if Google “week six” and “value QB’ you will find, as my son would say, eight bajillion opinion pieces claiming Winston is the play this week. But just because it’s the chalk doesn’t make it wrong.

Here are the Fanduel QB points so far against the Falcons thru Week 5:

Nick Foles – 5.58 (granted, this is bad, but it’s also Nick Foles in a lightning-delayed primetime game)
Cam Newton – 28.60
Drew Brees – 40.54
Andy Dalton – 25.78
Ben Roethlisberger – 22.60

Even with the Foles game, you are looking at 24.62 points per game. What is also intriguing about those matchups and projecting Week 6 is what has become a standard DFS play in 2018 – pass catching running backs against the Falcons. The Panthers, Saints, Bengals, and Steelers all have outstanding pass catching backs and utilized them extensively in their game plans. The Bucs rely on Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers. This could mean Winston will be forced to rely more heavily on deeper throws, trusting his elite arsenal of Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate.

The over/for this game is 57.5 – 4.5 points higher than the next closest contest. Both teams have dumpster fire defenses (more on that later) and elite offenses. A shootout is coming and we are going to want the trigger that will fire up the scoring.

Full Disclosure – Devonta Freeman was ruled out right after I finished writing this, so Tevin Coleman ($6,300) is the real answer to your cheap running back problems.

Running Back – Jordan Howard ($6,200)

Let’s get one thing out of the way first. Howard has awful in his last game. Against Tampa Bay, he rushed 11 times for 25 yards and had one target that he did not catch. But since the Bears won the game by 900 points and Mitchell Montana threw for six touchdowns, Howard just wasn’t needed. Against the Dolphins, however, the script should be wildly different.

According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins have the 5^th best pass defense in 2018. Against the run, it’s been a different story. Only one week this year has Miami played the run well – Week 2 against the Jets. In their other four games, their opponents have averaged 125.75 rushing yards and one touchdown. I mean they allowed more than five yards per carry to Doug Martin in Week 3. Come on.

Including Week 4, Howard plays on 65% of the snaps per game and averages 55% of the rushing share (again, including a 35% share in Week 4 – he was at 77% in Week 3). He also has every rush for the Bears inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks.

Blend all these numbers up with the fact that the Bears are three point favorites on the road and have the seventh highest percentage of rushing plays in the league, and the script sets up for a big week for Howard.

Running Back – Chris Carson ($6,400)

I couldn’t be more chuffed about this football match, bloke. T’will be quite the sight to see the Seahawks try to queer the Raiders pitch in ole Londontown.

Rich Hribar had a fascinating stat in his Week 6 Worksheet Column this week. He found that 87.5% of Chris Carson’s rush attempts have gained positive yardage – second most in the league for running backs with more than 50 attempts. So we can check the production box.

In the first two weeks of 2018, the Seahawks experimented with five different running backs – Carson, Mike Davis, Rashaad Penny, C.J. Prosise, and Tre Madden. By the time Week 5 rolled around, that number funneled down to two. Carson played on 58% of the snaps and Davis played on 48%. No other running back even attempted a rush in week 5. Russell Wilson – who has rushed 5.6 times per game in his career – also didn’t rush once in Week 5. Branches on this rushing usage tree are rapidly falling off, and Carson is beginning to reap the benefits – 54 touches the past two weeks! Check for the usage box.

You don’t need me to tell you how bad the Raiders are at stopping the run. They are 24^th and falling fast.

Wide Receiver – Mohamed Sanu ($5,800)

I think the White Stripes said it best:

“In some respects I suspect you’ve got a respectable side.”

Well you don’t know what love is until you play a wide receiver against the Tampa Bay pass defense. Sanu has been showing his respectable side lately as the Falcons defense continues to struggle and they are forced into some heavy passing game flows.

In these shootouts, Sanu’s usage has been on the rise. Look at the chart below from Jim Sannes’ matchups to exploit column from this week:

Besides the fact that the 0.0% of red-zone targets to Julio Jones makes my eyes bleed, you can see how Sanu is working his way into usage. He is second in overall target share and second in red-zone targets in this three game sample.

In addition, among wide receives on the Falcons he has the second highest target share, overall targets and receptions the past two games. He continues to outpace Calvin Ridley in snap percentage, and now leads him 81% to 61% on the season.

Back to the 57.5 over/under in this game for a moment. The primary culprit for that number has to be the Tampa Bay pass defense. According to Football Outsiders, they are in the basement and score significantly worse than the 31^st ranked pass defense (New Orleans). They are being absolutely torched and are giving up 40.7 Fanduel points per game to wide receivers.

Wide receiver – Jarvis Landry ($6,900)

I truly, madly, deeply wanted to write about Robert Woods in this space, and he may still be underpriced, but all the reports out of Rams camps this week have been generally positive about the concussions for Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp, so there may be more skill players to fit into the pie this week. With that uncertainly, let’s pivot to Landry who is $400 cheaper.

Sometimes it’s baffling how underrated Landry can be. His average targets per game sits at 11.6 – third in the NFL, behind only Brown and Thielen. He is targeted more than Hopkins, Julio, Diggs, Adams, Michael Thomas, etc. And half of his playing time has been with Tyrod Taylor under center. He is also third in target share percentage at 30.9% behind only Brown and Hopkins.

The Chargers have a very middle of the pack pass defense – currently ranked 16^th – but that masks what could be a potential inefficiency in how the Browns will approach this game. According to Player Profiler, Landry plays 62.6% of his snaps in the slot this year. The Chargers’ best cornerback, Casey Hayward, only has lined up in the slot 2.4% of the time in his five games in 2018.

Beyond Hayward, the Chargers have no one who can cover Landry in that position. What I love about this opportunity for Landry is that even though he is coming primarily out of the slot, he has still led his team in air yards market share in three of five games. Usage plus a soft defense. Landry should feast.

With the full benefit of hindsight, digging into usage and opportunity can help us prepare for upcoming NFL weeks and strengthen our future roster construction. This weekly article will look at some of the standout performances – positive and negative – to determine what lessons we can learn moving forward.

As we evaluate the numbers behind the output, we will attempt to uncover whether we want to take it, and prescribe the performance as predictive, or leave it, and dismiss the results due to game script or simple variance.

Kenyan Drake – 6 rushes/46 yards, 11 targets/7 receptions/69 yards, 1 receiving touchdown

Drake’s 21 fantasy points on Sunday were more than his past three weeks combined (19.1). While he did manage a healthy yards per carry on his six rush attempts, it is his work in the passing game that truly stands out. Eleven targets (once again more than the last three weeks combined, 10) accounted for 33% of the Dolphins’ air targets, almost doubling his closest teammate. Miami clearly saw something they wanted to exploit in the short field and Drake benefited greatly from the Tannehill check downs.

A more involved Drake in the passing game means more opportunity for him to exploit his big play potential. I’m intrigued.

He was still out-rushed 12-6 by Frank Gore, and it seems clear that Miami is going to stay committed Gore for as long as his 82-year old body can withstand it, so even with a healthy yards per carry, don’t expect rushing to be a significant part of Drake’s game without more opportunity.

Here is a quick comparison of their weekly rushing attempts:

There is a pattern developing here. Dolphins rush = more Gore, hate the Drake. Tread carefully next week, however. The Bears are on the schedule.

Verdict: Rushing – Leave it, Receiving – Take it

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 10 targets/7 receptions/68 yards, 1 touchdown

See below for my crow-eating on Ty Montgomery. Once it became clear that Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison would both miss the game, and with a potential shootout on tap, I assumed a lot of opportunity would be sent Montgomery’s way. Not so much – yesterday was the MVS show.

MVS was in on 95% of Green Bay’s snaps, not only highest on his team but tied for 8^th highest among all players. We haven’t fully seen it until this week, but Rodgers clearly has a connection with his new receiver and it was on full display against the Lions.

I always buy into the squeaky wheel narrative with the NFL (Exhibit 1A: Odell Beckham, Jr., Week 5), so when Aaron Rodgers comes out after a 22-0 win in week 4 and talks about points left on the field and more players needing to be involved, I am paying attention. If Cobb and/or Allison are out for any extended time, Valdes-Scantling may take the #2 job and never look back.

Verdict:

Robby Anderson – 5 targets/3 receptions/123 yards, 2 touchdowns

Well. That was an impressive day. How do we evaluate the Anderson/Sam Darnold pairing in future weeks?

Anderson’s catches yesterday were outstanding. Out-running and out-jumping defenders on his two long touchdowns. On his first touchdown, it looks like Bradley Roby is moving in slow motion compared to Anderson. Beautiful.

However, Anderson’s yardage totals for the first four weeks were: 41, 27, 22, 18. That’s a total of 108. That’s less than 123. I’m a modern-day Will Hunting.

His 22.7% target share and 39.1% air yards share are easily season highs. His receptions and average depth of target were all in perfect alignment with the previous four weeks. His smells a little bit to me like the Denver secondary is not the crew we used to know and Darnold took advantage of Anderson being able to burn them. I am willing to concede this might be the beginning of some strong rapport between the two – Quincy Enunwa’s target share has fallen each week of the season – but I need to see it again before I buy in.

Verdict – Leave it

Ezekiel Elliott – 20 rushes/54 yards, 7 targets/7 receptions/30 yards, 0 touchdowns

Man, that 2.7 yards per rush looks ugly.

But let’s not overthink this. The motley crew that makes up the Cowboys wide receivers could do nothing against an average Texans secondary, leaving players like J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Benardrick McKinney to feast at the line of scrimmage. There were multiple tackles for loss in this game and several “how did he not get sacked?” moments by Dak Prescott last night. The Texans were pushing through the offensive line all night.

Elliott’s 27 touches, 20 rushes, and 7 targets are all his second highest of the season. His 2.7 yards per carry is two yards below his prior low for 2018. The volume is there, the offense flows through Zeke, his offense just ran into a brick wall on Sunday night.

Verdict – Leave it

The Price is Right: Week 5 Recap

Where we grade my value play selections from before the games.

Derek Carr – Carr did have a 94.0 passer rating and game flow set up perfectly for Carr to air it out, but he was denied a bigger day by a costly Martavis Bryant fumble and an interception on the doorstep of the end zone. In the end, trusting this Raiders team to be consistent offensively should earn me an “F” from the start. It was also Bad Amari Cooper week, with 3% target share and one catch. Grade: C

Ty Montgomery – See notes on MVS above. This one was brutal. Only three snaps from the slot combined with three targets and four rushing attempts. Game flow was positive, but Rodgers wanted his other pass catchers today. Exacerbating the low usage – his average depth of target was MINUS .67 yards. Grade: D-

David Johnson – The good: 20 touches, 2 touchdowns. The bad: 55 yards on 18 carries, he also had a negative aDOT for the game. It’s a good thing he gets volume and goal-line work. Grade: B+

Taywan Taylor – In hindsight, the low total of this game should have turned me off to pass-catchers. Mariota only had to throw 28 times which wiped out opportunity that was available the week before versus Philadelphia. He continues to be second on his team in target share, air yards share, and total air yards, so in a week with more shootout appeal, we might be able to jump back on here. Grade: C-

Donte Moncrief – While more yards and a score would have made his box score look a whole lot better, the under-the-hood numbers are stellar. There was no player on Sunday targeted more than Moncrief and his 15 targets led to a team leading 76 yards. His target share and air yards share also easily led the team. Some of the massive volume can be attributed to Bortles passing 61 times in the game, but in Jaguars games without Fournette that are projected to be high-scoring, it’s a lock that passing Bortles will emerge. Grade: A-

Vance McDonald – An extremely disappointing amount of usage. Only two targets just ain’t going to get it done, even in this wasteland that is the 2018 Tight End. In a game where James Conner was able to do just about whatever he wanted, Roethlisberger only had to throw 29 times and McDonald fell out of the game plan. Grade D

One thing to watch for Week 6:

If Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp cannot recover from their respective concussions, Robert Woods will lead the next Price is Right column, even if he is $10,000.